Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Dry weather is expected, as we get closer to the end of the harvest
The chart below says it all. This week, expect above average temperatures, and drier than average conditions, as the harvest continues toward completion. No major weather systems are expected to reach the prairies this week. Heavy storms will hit the west coast, but a persistent upper ridge of high pressure will deflect those storms to the northern territories, perhaps reaching only the far northern regions of the three prairie provinces.
Overall, the week looks warmer and drier than average, offering one of the best harvest windows of the season across all three provinces. Risks are minor and mainly confined to light northern showers midweek and potential late-week changes in Alberta.
The end to the harvest is near. According to the latest crop reports, the harvest in Alberta is 77 percent complete, 68 percent in Saskatchewan, and 56 percent in Manitoba. The harvest in Manitoba has been set back by rainfall throughout the harvest season, following a rather dry summer.
While we remain in a dry pattern for this week, there will be some opportunities for a few showers across the prairies, with the potential for a period of heavier rain in Manitoba, and possibly for southern Alberta at the end of the weekend. Here’s the day by day breakdown:
Monday
Alberta
It’s another dry day for the province of Alberta, though some cloud will creep into the northwestern part of the province as a low pressure system develops at the surface during the day. No rain is expected from the low or its associated cold front, but it will bear watching as it develops near Peace River. It will remain sunny elsewhere, and high temperatures across the province are expected to reach the low to mid 20s. It will feel like a summer day.
Saskatchewan
It’s a short, simple forecast for Saskatchewan on Monday. The entire province will be sunny and warm. Summer-like conditions continue, with highs across the southern two thirds of the province reaching the mid 20s. High teens are forecast for the north.
Manitoba
Manitoba will also be warm and dry through most of the day. There is a chance of showers or light rain developing in southern Manitoba, south of Lake Winnipeg, and between Portage La Prairie and the Ontario boundary in the afternoon. Otherwise, dry weather is expected with temperatures reaching the mid to high teens.
Tuesday
Alberta
As shown on the map below, storms will continue to reach the west coast, and rain is also expected on the windward side of the Rockies, Selkirks, and Purcells in BC. In Alberta, it will be another dry day Tuesday, though some rain is expected to cross northern Alberta, reaching the northeastern part of the province by 6:00 pm. Most other areas will stay dry, with highs in the mid to upper teens.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
For Saskatchewan and Manitoba, it will be another dry day, with a good opportunity for catching up in those areas where the harvest is running behind schedule. Both provinces will be mainly sunny, as highs reach the low to mid 20s. It will be a bit cooler in Manitoba’s far north, but still warmer than average, with highs in the mid to high teens.
Wednesday
Alberta
October begins, and the warm spell continues in Alberta. Across the province, highs will reach the high teens or low 20s. There may be some pre-dawn rainshowers in central Alberta, which will rapidly move toward Saskatchewan, leaving the province dry and partly cloudy through the rest of the day. The early morning showers are not likely to produce enough precipitation to cause significant harvest delays.
Saskatchewan
A Low pressure system and a weak cold front will provide some rain to northern Saskatchewan throughout the day. The rain will fall to the north of agricultural land, and there is not expected to be any impact on the harvest in central and southern Saskatchewan, unless the low tracks a bit further south than expected. We also can’t rule out the possibility of light showers through the morning and midday in southeastern Saskatchewan from the Trans Canada Highway south to the US border. Except for the far north, temperatures across Saskatchewan are likely to peak in the low 20s, with a light westerly wind.
Manitoba
Central and southern Manitoba will begin the day with dry weather, but thanks to a weak cold front, showers or periods of rain are expected to develop in the afternoon across the Interlake and southern Manitoba. Across the province, highs will reach the low 20s, even in the far north, where there could be considerable rainfall.
Thursday
Alberta
Expect clouds and scattered showers in central Alberta during the morning and midday. In the afternoon, the sky clears, and moisture from earlier in the day will quickly dry out. Northern and Southern Alberta will stay dry all day. It will be cooler, following the passage of Wednesday’s cold front, so highs will remain in the teens. Conditions are favourable for harvesting, though there is increasing concern over the potential for frost in central and northern areas. Lows are expected to be above 0, however it may be cooler in low lying areas.
Saskatchewan
There will be lingering showers or rain in central Saskatchewan, following the passage of Wednesday’s cold front. Southern regions will remain dry. Behind the front, there will be some very chilly weather in northern Saskatchewan, with some areas struggling to reach 10. In central and southern regions, temperatures will reach the high teens or low 20s.
Manitoba
North of the lakes, it will rain all day. In the south, expect rain to move in during the evening in western Manitoba. Accumulations will be light, and the showers will be random in nature. This moisture represents the leading edge of precipitation that will move into Manitoba for the weekend. The season’s first Colorado low is on the way, and will provide rain for much of southern Manitoba in the coming days. Today’s dry weather prior to the rain’s arrival will create a good opportunity for the harvest, which will likely pause when the rain arrives toward the weekend. Southern Manitoba may see highs in the upper teens to low 20s (quite mild for this time of year). Northern Manitoba will be cooler.
Friday
Alberta
We begin to see a change to cooler, more unsettled weather in Alberta on Friday. The day will start out dry, but in the afternoon, rain arrives in two separaee areas of the province. A disturbance in the US will push rain into southeastern Alberta starting in the early afternoon. The area affected will be south of Bow Island and Medicine Hat, and eastward to the Saskatchewan boundary. A second area of rain will develop in the afternoon in northern Alberta, as a cold front crosses the region. The front is associated with a Low in Nunavut. The rest of the province will be mainly dry and sunny. There will be a slight province-wide drop in temperatures compared to Thursday, with highs in the mid-teens.
Saskatchewan
Another dry day is expected in Saskatchewan, making for a terrific harvest day. In much of the agricultural south, it will be a cloudier day. Rain is not expected, but the could cover may inhibit drying. It will still be warm relative to normal. Daytime highs may be in the upper teens; with overnight lows a few degrees above freezing in many southern zones.
Manitoba
The rain that snuck into southwestern Manitoba Thursday night will continue, and slowly move eastward. It will fall lightly during the day, providing less than 5 mm of moisture. It may be rainy enough to slow the harvest in southern Manitoba. Much heavier rain will arrive in the evening, especially in areas to the north and northeast of Winnipeg. HIghs across the province will reach the mid teens.
Saturday
Alberta
There’s a lot going on with Alberta’s weather on Saturday. The low in Nunavut continues to produce a cold front through northern and central Alberta. Along the front, there will be rain, especially for areas west of Edmonton and Red Deer. Then, in the evening, the heavier rainfall moves south through Calgary toward the US border. The map below shows expected rainfall in Alberta and BC on Saturday:
Daytime highs may slip to the low to mid teens. Overnight lows likely just at or slightly below freezing in central/northern zones, just above freezing in the south.
Saskatchewan
As a Colorado low moves northeastward, it will spread some cloud cover into southern Saskatchewan, and there may be some rainfall in the region early in the day. That rain will taper off by the afternoon. Meantime, in the north, a day of rain is expected due to a cold front borne by the low in Nunavut. The front will produce significant rainfall, though it will be north of agricultural land. Temperatures should reach the mid teens in the afternoon.
Manitoba
The weather will be mixed across southern Manitoba during the day. There will be enough rainfall to interrupt harvesting operations. The day will bring a bit of everything across the province, periods of sun, periods of cloud, and periods of rain. This highly variable, unsettled weather will affect the entire province. in the late afternoon and evening, the Colorado low gets close enough to generate heavier rainfall across southern Manitoba. High temperatures will reach the mid to high teens.
Sunday
Alberta
FROST – This could be the day of the season’s first frost, likely in most areas north of High River. Temperatures could drop to -3 throughout central Alberta. The cold front that brought rain to Alberta Saturday begins to move out. Early in the day, rain will continue south of highway 3, but will quickly move south and east, exiting the province. Behind the front, the sky will clear for the afternoon, and a westerly wind will develop. After the cold morning, it will stay cold through the day in Alberta, with highs across the province in the 5-9 degree range.
Saskatchewan
Frost is less likely in Saaktchewan, but cannot be ruled out for northwestern parts of the province. There will be a few showers north of Saskatoon early in the morning and toward the noon hour, but the rest of the day, and the rest of the province will be dry. With daytime highs reaching only 8-12 degrees, drying after the recent rain will be sluggish.
Manitoba
Heavy rain is expected in southeastern Manitoba, as the Colorado Low passes just south of the border. Expect 15-30 mm with heavier amounts in small pockets. The rain will continue until the afternoon, as it moves eastward. Drier weather is expected in southwestern Manitoba. Harvest operations will be impacted across the south. Temperatures will be seasonable, with highs of 10-13 degrees in the south. In the north, expect highs of 7-10 degrees.
COMPARE: Prairie Weather This Week – Sept 22
