Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Dry weather is expected, as we get closer to the end of the harvest
The chart below says it all. This week, expect above average temperatures, and drier than average conditions, as the harvest continues toward completion. No major weather systems are expected to reach the prairies this week. Heavy storms will hit the west coast, but a persistent upper ridge of high pressure will deflect those storms to the northern territories, perhaps reaching only the far northern regions of the three prairie provinces.
Overall, the week looks warmer and drier than average, offering one of the best harvest windows of the season across all three provinces. Risks are minor and mainly confined to light northern showers midweek and potential late-week changes in Alberta.
The end to the harvest is near. According to the latest crop reports, the harvest in Alberta is 77 percent complete, 68 percent in Saskatchewan, and 56 percent in Manitoba. The harvest in Manitoba has been set back by rainfall throughout the harvest season, following a rather dry summer.
While we remain in a dry pattern for this week, there will be some opportunities for a few showers across the prairies, with the potential for a period of heavier rain in Manitoba, and possibly for southern Alberta at the end of the weekend. Here’s the day by day breakdown:
Monday
Alberta
It’s another dry day for the province of Alberta, though some cloud will creep into the northwestern part of the province as a low pressure system develops at the surface during the day. No rain is expected from the low or its associated cold front, but it will bear watching as it develops near Peace River. It will remain sunny elsewhere, and high temperatures across the province are expected to reach the low to mid 20s. It will feel like a summer day.
Saskatchewan
It’s a short, simple forecast for Saskatchewan on Monday. The entire province will be sunny and warm. Summer-like conditions continue, with highs across the southern two thirds of the province reaching the mid 20s. High teens are forecast for the north.
Manitoba
Manitoba will also be warm and dry through most of the day. There is a chance of showers or light rain developing in southern Manitoba, south of Lake Winnipeg, and between Portage La Prairie and the Ontario boundary in the afternoon. Otherwise, dry weather is expected with temperatures reaching the mid to high teens.
Tuesday
Alberta
As shown on the map below, storms will continue to reach the west coast, and rain is also expected on the windward side of the Rockies, Selkirks, and Purcells in BC. In Alberta, it will be another dry day Tuesday, though some rain is expected to cross northern Alberta, reaching the northeastern part of the province by 6:00 pm. Most other areas will stay dry, with highs in the mid to upper teens.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
For Saskatchewan and Manitoba, it will be another dry day, with a good opportunity for catching up in those areas where the harvest is running behind schedule. Both provinces will be mainly sunny, as highs reach the low to mid 20s. It will be a bit cooler in Manitoba’s far north, but still warmer than average, with highs in the mid to high teens.
Wednesday
Alberta
October begins, and the warm spell continues in Alberta. Across the province, highs will reach the high teens or low 20s. There may be some pre-dawn rainshowers in central Alberta, which will rapidly move toward Saskatchewan, leaving the province dry and partly cloudy through the rest of the day. The early morning showers are not likely to produce enough precipitation to cause significant harvest delays.
Saskatchewan
A Low pressure system and a weak cold front will provide some rain to northern Saskatchewan throughout the day. The rain will fall to the north of agricultural land, and there is not expected to be any impact on the harvest in central and southern Saskatchewan, unless the low tracks a bit further south than expected. We also can’t rule out the possibility of light showers through the morning and midday in southeastern Saskatchewan from the Trans Canada Highway south to the US border. Except for the far north, temperatures across Saskatchewan are likely to peak in the low 20s, with a light westerly wind.
Manitoba
Central and southern Manitoba will begin the day with dry weather, but thanks to a weak cold front, showers or periods of rain are expected to develop in the afternoon across the Interlake and southern Manitoba. Across the province, highs will reach the low 20s, even in the far north, where there could be considerable rainfall.
Thursday
Alberta
Expect clouds and scattered showers in central Alberta during the morning and midday. In the afternoon, the sky clears, a westerly wind develops, and moisture from earlier in the day will quickly dry out. Northern and Southern Alberta will stay dry all day. It will be cooler, following the passage of Wednesday’s cold front, so highs will remain in the teens.
Saskatchewan
There will be lingering showers or rain in central Saskatchewan, following the passage of Wednesday’s cold front. While most of the wet weather (and it won’t be that wet) passes through the central part of the province, a few scattered showers can’t be ruled out for the south. Behind the front, there will be some very chilly weather in northern Saskatchewan, with some areas struggling to reach 10. In central and southern regions, temperatures will reach the high teens or low 20s.
Manitoba
North of the lakes, it will rain all day. In the south, expect rain to move in during the late morning in western Manitoba. Accumulations will be light, and the showers will be random in nature. The southern rain will move from west to east very slowly, not reaching the Red River Valley until late evening. Even with the wet weather, temperatures in southern Manitoba should reach the low 20s. In the north, afternoon highs will come in near the mid teens.
Friday
Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba
The weather for all three prairie provinces Friday will be similar. And cooler. Across the prairies, highs will only reach the mid teens, but harvest operations won’t be interrupted or delayed by the weather, as on Friday, all the expected precipitation is expected to fall north of agricultural regions. As mentioned, moisture that comes in from the west coast will be deflected around the prairies to the north. On Friday, some of that wet weather will creep south to the northern prairies, but agricultural lands are expected to remain dry.
Saturday and Sunday
A low tracking through the Northwest Territories will drag a cold front in through the northern prairies, and destabilize things somewhat, especially in Alberta on Saturday and Saskatchewan on Sunday. The front will slip as far south as Calgary on Saturday, then retreat to northern Saskatchewan by Sunday. While that system won’t have as much of an effect on Manitoba, a Low in the northern US will spread moisture into southeastern Manitoba over the weekend. Details on all this still have to be tweaked, as we are still quite far away in time to forecast with any specific accuracy. It will be cool. Highs on Saturday will only be in the low double digits across the three provinces. And, on the map below, check out the chill expected on Sunday afternoon:
COMPARE: Prairie Weather This Week – Sept 22
