Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – After a record-setting hot weekend, a cold front sweeps across the prairies this week, knocking temperatures down anywhere from 10-15 degrees in many areas. The front moves through Alberta first on Monday, and will carry on across the prairies through the week. As the front passes, expect gusty wind and 30-40 mm of rain, in northwestern Alberta. Further east, ahead of the frontal passage, it will remain hot in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, until mid week. Later in the week, a storm coming up from Montana will likely produce rain, showers, thunderstorms, and gusty wind into southern Alberta and Saskatchewan. Expect this on Thursday. This will be yet another weather-related interruption to the harvest, which has been moving along at a brisk pace.
There were just a few minor weather-related delays over the past week, allowing farmers to get ahead of the normal pace, especially in southern Alberta and southwest Saskatchewan. According to the latest Alberta Crop Report, 55 percent of the harvest has been completed. According to the Saskatchewan Crop Report, 42 percent has been completed, and is well ahead of the 10 year average. With the rain coming later in the week, the pace may have to slow down a bit. If the rain is as heavy as anticipated, it’s advisable to just sit it out, or risk getting stuck in the mud. As usual, keep up to date with the latest forecasts.
So…..how much rain? It’s far too early to say with certainty, but it is safe to say there will be considerable rainfall in some areas. Central and Northern Alberta will be in for more than 30 mm this week. Eastern Alberta could see accumulations hitting 50-80 mm. The map below shows accumulated rainfall in mm up until the evening of Sunday September 15:
Most of the heavy rain shown along the Alberta Saskatchewan boundary will fall on Friday.
Lesser amounts are forecast for most of Saskatchewan and for Manitoba, where parts of the south and east will get no rain at all:
The cooler weather will come as a relief for livestock operators who’ve struggled to keep their animals comfortable in the intense heat. Now that we’re in September, we can soon relax about heat and its effects on crops and livestock. Our attention turns to frost, and while there is none forecast anywhere in the prairies over the next ten days, we’re into the time of year when we have to watch for the first frost. Generally across the prairies, the first frost can be expected between September 11 and September 20, slightly later in the Red River Valley and Medicine Hat (Sept 21-30), and slightly earlier near Grande Prairie and Lethbridge (September 1-10).
If all goes as expected, it’ll be an early harvest and a late frost. Were it not for the hail and heat damages throughout the summer, this would have been a landmark year.
RELATED: Hail Report: Devastating Storms Damage More Than A Million Acres
Here’s what to expect this week:
Monday:
A low pressure system develops in the early morning in the west central foothills, heading to northeastern Alberta throughout the day. A cold front from the Low will sweep across the province, giving rain and gusty wind to the northern half of Alberta. Before the front goes through, temperatures will again reach the 30s in southern Alberta east of Hwy 2 and south of Hwy 1. Some associated showers may pop up in southern Alberta on the tail end of the front at the tail end of the day. Saskatchewan and Manitoba will stay hot, sunny, and dry.
Tuesday:
The cold front sweeps across Saskatchewan, however, it will have lost much of its moisture, so the main impact in Saskatchewan will be a strong gusty wind, especially in the morning and midday. In southern Alberta, there is chance that the Monday evening showers will continue through the night and into Tuesday morning. The front will affect Manitoba in the early evening. And as was the case in Saskatchewan, it will be primarily a wind event. Of course, the passage of the front will mean an end to the record-setting heat in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, as highs will back down to the low to mid-20s. In Alberta, it will be even cooler, with highs of 15 to 20 degrees on average.
Wednesday:
A low pressure system in the Pacific off the coast of Vancouver Island will push moisture across the northern US, BC, and into Alberta and Saskatchewan. Reinforced by another Low in Montana, rain will fall in southwestern Saskatchewan early Wednesday morning. Central Alberta will also see some rainfall from this pairing up of the two lows. Manitoba stays dry for yet another day. As the day goes on, light rain continues in southern Saskatchewan, with heavier rainfall in the Rockies and central Alberta. With the onset of wetter weather, temperatures in southern Alberta between Highway 2 and the foothills will only reach 10-15 degrees, though mid-twenties are still possible near Medicine Hat. The rest of the prairies can expect highs in the low twenties.
Thursday:
The rain in Alberta and southern Saskatchewan becomes heavier, with isolated downpours. This could be one of those days where your neighbor a mile down the road may get 10, 20, 30 mm of rain, while you get nothing. The best chances for significant accumulations, as mentioned above, are in southern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan. Parts of central Saskatchewan could receive a healthy serving of rain as well. And Manitoba? Another dry day.
Friday:
The Pacific low mentioned in Wednesday’s forecast, will have moved to Eastern Montana early Friday morning. The high pressure ridge that has kept Manitoba dry all this time will be strong enough to cause the low to deflect north. It will take a sharp left turn, and bring more heavy rainfall to southern Alberta and lighter rain to southern Saskatchewan. The heaviest rain will fall along the Alberta Saskatchewan boundary. This will definitely be a storm that interrupts the harvest. The good news is right after the storm leaves, there should be a return to sunny, dry weather, which will rapidly dry the land so the harvest can resume. Finally, western Manitoba can expect a bit of rain Friday. It will fall west of the Red River Valley as far north as The Pas. It will be cool, with highs in the low teens for most of Alberta and Saskatchewan. However, on the warm side of the low, air drawn up from the central US, will boost temperatures to the high 20s for southeastern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba.
Saturday and Sunday:
The Pacific Low continues to move north into the Territories, taking the rain with it. Southern prairies will dry out, though the Alberta foothills will bear watching. A Low may develop over the foothills, triggering some showers or thunderstorms, which could peel away from the terrain and head east across the southern part of the province. By Sunday, that weak low is in Saskatchewan, generating some rain around Lloydminster, but it will be very isolated. Highs both days across the region will range from the mid teens to the mid 20s.
Prairie Weather Event forecasts
Forages and Winter Feeding Field Day, Sept 11, Chedderville , AB
Mainly cloudy, wind gusting at times to 30 km/h, high 15
Davey Creek Ranch Farm Tour, Sunday Sept 15, near Innisfail, AB
Cloudy in the morning, sunny in the afternoon, light wind, high 17
Discover the Farm, Sept 15, Glenlea, MB
Sunny, light wind, high 31
