Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – This week, 30 degree high temperatures are possible on the prairies for the first time this season.  The overall weather pattern remains warm and dry.   There will, though, be opportunities for beneficial rainfall.   Here are two charts showing the trend for this week.   The first chart shows an above average chance of above average temperatures for the prairies, especially Alberta and Saskatchewan:

And, the same area is expected to have an above average chance of below average precipitation for the week:

 

 

The charts above represent trends, not forecasts,  and there will be some wet weather on the prairies this week.  As the map below shows,  at least some rain is expected across the prairies, except, perhaps for parts of south-central Saskatchewan.    The higher amounts in Alberta represent areas where localized thunderstorms may produce significant rainfall.  In southeastern Manitoba, the rain will come in the form of more organized systems.

 

Monday

Alberta

Rain and snow Sunday night in the mountains and southwestern foothills will end Monday morning.  The upper trough producing the wet weather moves east, and the sky clears over Alberta.   In the afternoon, an upper ridge tries to build over Alberta, but cloud will push in from the west, and by the end of the day, most of Alberta is beneath a cloudy sky.   Afternoon showers or rain can be expected in the Peace region.  South of Edmonton, over the prairie, high temperatures will reach the 15 to 20 degree range, with highs of 10-15 over the higher terrain in the foothills, and to the north of Edmonton.

Saskatchewan

Most of Saskatchewan will have a dry day, with the exception of a few morning showers in the southeastern part of the province.   Once those showers leave, it will remain dry through the rest of the day.  Saskatchewan will clear during the day from west to east.   With generally sunny conditions, the western half of Saskatchewan will have highs in the low teens.   Highs between 5 and 10 can be expected east of Regina and Saskatoon.

Manitoba

There will be a centre of high pressure in northern Manitoba, and the province will clear from west to east.   A powerful storm system south of the border,  moves northward from South Dakota to Minnesota, producing heavy rain on the American side.   Some of that rain will spill across the border, nicking the southeastern part of the province, especially Whiteshell provincial park.   Across Manitoba, there will be a north wind coming out of the northern High, so it will be cool, with most areas struggling to reach 5-7 degrees.

 

Tuesday

Alberta

It will be quite warm in Alberta before sunrise with low temperatures ranging between 5 and 10 degrees, climbing to the 15-20 degree range in the afternoon for areas south of Lacombe.   To the north, it will be a bit cooler, with highs of 10-15 degrees.    However, with the heat in the south, and an upper trough above, comes some instability.  Expect afternoon showers and thunderstorms east of the foothills between Olds and Fort Macleod.   A weak cold front from a Low in Saskatchewan will provide rain to northern Alberta.    Forecasting the exact location of convective showers and storms is nearly impossible, but the conditions are there for an outbreak in southern Alberta.

Saskatchewan

It’ll be a very warm day across most of Saskatchewan, with highs in the 15-20 degree range.   Somewhere around Biggar or North Battleford, highs above 20 are possible.     In southeastern Saskatchewan, however, showers are possible, knocking back temperatures to the between 5 and 15 degrees.   The area of showers and cooler weather is mainly east of Regina and north of the Trans Canada highway.   Precipitation amounts are unlikely to be meaningful.

Manitoba

Other than some afternoon snow over the permafrost in the far north, Manitoba will have a dry day.   And though there will be a southerly wind across the province, it’s not going to be a significantly warm day, with most areas getting to 5-10 degrees.   western Manitoba, between Brandon and Dauphin, will be a few degrees warmer.

 

Wednesday

Alberta

An upper trough of low pressure will move across southern Alberta on Wednesday, and in behind it, a ridge of high pressure begins to build.   This will clear out the sky, and most of the province will be dry.   Rain will fall in the northern quarter of the province,  which will still be under the influence of a surface Low in northern Saskatchewan.   In that rainy area, highs will be in the mid to high single digits.   In the south, with the afternoon sun and a westerly wind, the computer models are suggesting highs of 15 to 20 degrees.   However, don’t be surprised if it gets even warmer.

Saskatchewan

Some early morning showers are likely for the Cypress Hills, then east along the US border.   However, those showers will taper off in the morning.   With an upper ridge of high pressure building in,  the southern two thirds of the province will experience sunshine and warm weather, with most of Saskatchewan reaching 15 to 20 degrees in the afternoon.    Up north, it’s a different story.   A low pressure system in north central Saskatchewan will produce some rain, and even snow for the region.    Northern Saskatchewan high temperatures will be near zero.

Manitoba

An elongated area of rainfall stemming from a low in northern Saskatchewan and producing rain and snow there, will push rain into northern Manitoba as well.   However, more significantly for agricultural purposes, rain is expected in southern Manitoba during most of the day.   10-20 mm of welcome rainfall could accumulate in the Winnipeg area, and near Lake Manitoba.   Elsewhere rainfall totals will range from 5-10 mm.    In most of southern Manitoba, highs will be near 15 degrees, but it will be much colder north of Thompson.

 

Thursday

Alberta and Saskatchewan

An upper ridge builds over western Canada, clearing out the sky and bringing sunshine first to Alberta and then to Saskatchewan.   At the surface, a centre of high pressure develops over the Alberta Rockies, about half way between Jasper and Banff.    The two ridges, one upper, one at the surface,  mark the initiation of a weather pattern that will bring summer like weather to Alberta and the rest of the prairies in the coming days.    In Alberta, high temperatures could reach the low 20s from Calgary north to Edmonton, and northwest to Grande Prairie.   Elsewhere in the province, highs will range from 15 to 20 degrees.   There will be similar temperatures for western Saskatchewan.   On the eastern side, it’s a cooler day, with highs in the low teens.   The reason for the cooler weather is a disturbance moving through central Saskatchewan, producing rain in a north south line between the Yellowhead highway and the US border.   That line of showers will move to the southeast through the day,  exiting the province in the evening.   Snow is expected on the northern edge of this precipitation band,  near the Manitoba boundary.    Planting in parts of Saskatchewan may be delayed Thursday, but with the return of summer-like weather this weekend, it’s a short delay.    Back in Alberta, weather conditions are ideal for planting, though drought concerns persist in some areas, especially the foothills.    Soil moisture remains plentiful in the southeastern part of the province.

 

 

Manitoba

The Low pressure system that produced rain and snow in parts of Saskatchewan will spread some snow from The Pas to Grand Rapids Thursday.   Only a few cm will accumulate, and due to the warm weather, and the warm ground temperatures, there won’t be much of a chance for the snow to accumulate in any significant way.   The band of snow will move southward over the lakes, and quickly fizzle out.  Rain develops in Westman in the afternoon, continuing into the evening.  This is from that same Saskatchewan low, which is weakening as it heads across the international border southwest of Brandon.   An upper trough over the area will provide instability, so convective showers and thundershowers can’t be ruled out.     Highs in southern Manitoba are expected to reach 10 to 15 degrees.

Friday

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba

The upper ridge moves over Alberta, and the sky in Alberta and Saskatchewan will be mainly clear.  Both provinces will get plenty of sunshine.   Southern Manitoba will also be under a sunny sky, which will allow planting operations to resume.   From the interlake north, it will be cloudy, with some showers scattered through northern Manitoba, well away from agricultural concerns.   The wind will come from the southwest in all three provinces, allowing for a push of much warmer air.    Highs will reach the mid to high 20s all across Alberta and Saskatchewan, with southern Manitoba remaining 5-10 degrees cooler.    The warmest weather, with highs between 25 and 30, will occur along the Bow River valley dowstream of Calgary, near Lloydminster,  in the foothills west of Edmonton, and in the Grande Prairie area.  Similar temperatures are expected in Sasktachewan, between Lloydminster and North Battleford.

 

Saturday and Sunday

 

The map above shows potential afternoon temperatures for Saturday.   For some parts of Saskatchewan and Alberta, highs could get close 30 degrees in places such as  Lloydminster, Drumheller, and Kindersley.   It will be the hottest day of the year so far, thanks to a ridge of high pressure that will dominate the three provinces for most of Saturday.

The heat could lead to the development of a thermal Low pressure system in southern Alberta,  which may lead to instability and some afternoon thunderstorms, especially northwest of Calgary, and west of Edmonton toward Jasper.   The low will head northeast into Saskatchewan during the evening, but will leave rain behind for central and northern regions of Alberta.   There should not be any interruption to planting operations south of Red Deer, but with increasing instability, a few pop up showers or thunderstorms in the region can’t be ruled out.

Colder weather will rush into  Alberta from the west on Sunday, and as one air mass replaces another, there will be wet weather for central and southwestern Alberta, where it will be much cooler, with highs in the 10 to 15 degree range.   Meantime, Saskatchewan and Manitoba will continue with very warm weather, as  highs between 25 and 30 are again possible in central Saskatchewan, and southern Manitoba.

 

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