Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Unfortunately cold, unfortunately dry

A change in the weather pattern will bring a lot more moisture into western North America over the next seven to ten days.   Unfortunately for Canadian prairie farmers and ranchers, the vast majority of  that wet weather is expected to occur south of the border. from the northwestern US straight across to the northeastern US, bypassing us to the south.   It doesn’t mean we won’t get any snow at all, but it does shut us out of the main moisture flow.

The big weather story this week is, again, expected to be bitter cold.   All week, the overnights will see wind chills of at least -40 in many areas.  The ECCC hazard map below shows the expect wind chill values for Monday, February 10.   The gray area shows wind chills of -40 to -45.   The yellow area is where wind chills will drop to -45 or perhaps even colder.

 

While the chart above shows the wind chill threat for Monday,  that threat is expected to continue all week.

But where has the snow been during this La Nina?  La Nina and El Nino are the two extremes of the El Nino Southern Oscillation, or ENSO.   Not all La Ninas are alike, and while this one has begun to deliver on cold weather, the expected snowfall has failed to materialize.   Alaska based climatologist Brian Bretschneider points out the folly on Bluesky:

 

This week, the storm track will bypass us to the south, so the heaviest amounts of snow are expected to be across the central United States and into Eastern Canada.   The map below shows the bulk of the snow will fall between the two black lines:

The Canadian prairie, especially Saskatchewan and Manitoba, will be left out of the big snow.   Southern Alberta and the foothills will get a bit more, but 5-10 cm at best.   Over a seven day period, that’s not a lot.

Monday

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba

For Monday, all three provinces will have nearly identical weather.  Cold, sunny, dry.   Arctic high pressure extending from northern British Columbia to southeastern Alberta will keep the prairie sky clear.   Temperatures from eastern Alberta, across Saskatchewan and Manitoba, will remain well below average.   On the map at the top of the post, you can see a wide area of bitter wind chill.  Those values will be reached in the early morning, with afternoon highs ranging from -15 to -25.   Western Alberta, including the foothills will be considerably warmer, with highs between -5 and -15.

Tuesday

Alberta

Milder air and a bit of snow can be expected Tuesday in Alberta.  Highs will peak near -10 in most of the province.   The relatively warmer air will contain some moisture, and light snow or fog can’t be ruled out along the northwestern foothills and southeast toward Edmonton, Red Deer, and Drumheller during most of the day.   In the late afternoon, some moisture can be expected along the Trans Canada Highway from Calgary to Saskatchewan.

Saskatchewan  and Manitoba

Another dry, cold day can be expected in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.   Perhaps it won’t be as sunny as Monday, with partly to mainly cloud conditions possible south of the Yellowhead highway.  Northern regions of both provinces will be sunny, but cold.   Temperatures across both provinces will range from early morning lows of -25 to -30, to afternoon highs only in the -20 to -25 range.  A northerly wind in Saskatchewan will likely make it feel much colder.

Wednesday

Alberta

Very little change is expected for Wednesday in Alberta, and across the prairies.   Temperatures will be slightly warmer in Alberta, but highs will still peak between -10 and -15.   The one possible exception is the Grande Prairie area, where some milder Pacific air will come in, possibly hiking temperatures to the -5 to -10 degree range.   Snow can be expected in central and southern Alberta in the early morning, and will taper off through the day.   Little accumulation is expected.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

It will be bitterly cold in Saskatchewan and Manitoba on Wednesday.   This map shows afternoon temperatures.

 

 

Just for fun, here’s the wind chill map for the same time Wednesday afternoon:

 

While it will be very cold Wednesday, it will also be very sunny across Saskatchewan and Manitoba, as the arctic high moves to Williston, North Dakota.

Thursday

Alberta

Another extremely cold morning for the prairies, and Alberta won’t escape the -30s this time.  Temperatures from Gleichen to the south end of McGregor Lake will drop to the -30s in the early morning.  It will be just as cold along the Saskatchewan boundary from Cypress Hills all the way north to Cold Lake.   Elsewhere in Alberta, morning lows will be well into the -20s.    In the afternoon, most of Alberta will see highs near -15 to -20, but in the southwest, there is a chance of highs between -5 and -10, as some mild Pacific air crosses the mountains.   Some snow in central and northern regions is possible, but no beneficial moisture is expected in Alberta’s agricultural regions.

Saskatchewan

Most of Thursday will be sunny in most of Saskatchewan.  Sunny and cold.   Very cold, especially in the morning, where  the entire southern half of Saskatchewan can expect morning lows in the -30s, warming by only a few degrees in the afternoon to approximately -20 to -25.   The sun will take some of the sting out of the cold air, but there continues to be a lack of moisture.

Manitoba

Like Saskatchewan, it will be sunny and very cold all day in Manitoba, with no beneficial moisture.   South of the lakes, morning temperatures will reach below -30,  and across the province in the afternoon,  highs can only be expected to reach the -20s.

 

Friday

Alberta

After yet another dry, cold day, southern Alberta is likely getting snow tonight, thanks to a system forming over the US Pacific Northwest.   Snowfall totals will be light and variable, with most of it falling south of the Trans Canada highway.   In that area, totals of 5cm will be widespread, with some isolated areas picking up as much as 10 cm.   The map below shows expected snowfall,  expressed in mm of water.  In other words, how much water there would be if the snow melted.

 

As the map shows, the heavier snowfall will happen in the mountains of Montana and Idaho.  The day stays cold, with temperatures across Alberta peaking near -20.

Saskatchewan

As the map above shows, snow will fall in southern Saskatchewan as well, with the moisture coming from an upper level low over the northern United States.    The snow begins at midday, carrying on through the night and into Saturday morning.    2 to 5 cm of snow is expected, as the very cold air won’t allow for heavier precipitation.    Expect afternoon temperatures to get stuck in the -20 to -25 degree range.

Manitoba

It’s also a cold-hearted forecast for Valentine’s day in Manitoba, as temperatures will stick in the mid to low -20s across the province.   It could become slightly warmer south of the lakes, with highs ranging from -15 to -20.   As the map above shows, there won’t be any significant precipitation over agricultural areas, but there could be some very light snow in the far north, late in the day.

 

Saturday

Alberta

No relief yet from the bone-chilling cold.  Most of Alberta will see afternoon temperatures Saturday between -20 and -25.   However, it could be 5 to 10 degrees warmer in the south.   Places like Calgary, and Lethbridge will see temperatures rising to the mid teens.   And right up against the British Colombia boundary, it may end up slightly warmer.   Light snow will fall over the southern half of Alberta, likely similar to what we saw on Thursday, with very light, fine, snow, and little accumulation.

Saskatchewan

The upper level low that produced snow in southern Saskatchewan Friday will continue to do so on Saturday, with the possibility of 5 cm falling south of Chamberlain.  Heavier amounts, to to 10 cm  can be expected south of the Trans Canada Highway, especially near Weyburn, Assiniboia, and Gravelbourg.    The bigger story for Saskatchewan is the cold weather, with temperatures in the mid minus 20s in the afternoon,  with wind chills in the -30s.  And this is at the warmest time of day!    Early in the morning, temperatures WITHOUT accounting for wind chill will get as low as -35 or below across central Saskatchewan, where wind chills will come in around -45.   Below is the wind chill forecast map for early Saturday morning:

 

 

Manitoba

A few flakes of snow are possible in southwestern Manitoba,  but there won’t be any significant accumulation.   Northern Manitoba will continue to see light snowfall as well, again with nothing much left on the ground.    Like Saskatchewan, the main story is a continuation of the bitterly cold weather.   Take a look at the wind chill map above.   It’s valid at 7:00 am Saturday morning central time.   Bitter wind chills in the -30s and -40s can be expected.   Without wind chill,  it will not only be cold in the morning, but even colder in the afternoon.   Temperatures will range from around -20 in the morning to -25 in the afternoon.    This is known as a reverse temperature trend.

 

Sunday

Alberta

It’s both Valentine’s day weekend, and Family Day weekend in Alberta, and outdoor activities will remain muted with continuing bitterly cold weather.    Temperatures across Alberta on Sunday will remain in the mid minus 20s, with somewhat warmer weather in the south west from Lethbridge west to the BC boundary and south to the US border.   There, temperatures could rise to the mid minus teens….still colder than average.    In that area of warmer air, expect some light snow on Sunday.   Elsewhere across Alberta, no snow.  None.   Most of the province will be sunny and very cold.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

Sunday will be sunny and cold across most of northern Sasktachewan, while southern Saskatchewan and all of Manitoba will remain under cloud cover.   Cold weather continues, with highs of only -25 to -30 expected across both provinces.   Afternoon wind chills range from -34 to -38.   Very light snow can’t be ruled out during the day on Sunday,  and while it may be persistent, it will be so light as to create no significant accumulation.

 

End to the Cold Spell?

There are rumors out there about the end of the cold spell at the end of next week.   So, we’ll leave you with some hope.  It comes in the form of a temperature map valid in the afternoon of Saturday, February 22.   If this holds true, it will be significantly warmer across the prairies, but especially in Alberta, where temperatures could climb well above the melting point:

 

 

 

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