Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Welcome, La Nina
La Nina is here, and cold weather will continue across the prairies this week, and there will be snow. The snowfall pattern will be similar to what we’ve had all season. Areas that have had snow will get more. And, dry areas, such as southern Alberta, will remain starved for moisture, as snow amounts over the next seven days will total only 10 cm at most.
Here’s an update on where we stand in terms of soil moisture as February begins. This first map shows where soil moisture levels stand relative to normal. Areas shaded in blue show higher or much higher than average soil moisture levels. This includes southern Alberta east of highway 2, a portion of north-central Alberta, and in the Souris/Assiniboine/Red watersheds of southern Manitoba. Areas in green show soil moisture levels near normal. Yellow, orange and red regions are those where there is a moisture deficit.

The map above shows where we stood as of January 28. The map below shows where we may be headed. It’s a six panel chart, showing the precipitation outlook through the spring and summer of 2025, according to the CFS model. Each map shows expected precipitation anomalies over a three month period. For example, the first map, labeled FMA 2025, shows the outlook for February, March, April of 2025. The next one below is MAM 2025 – March, April, May. Areas in green show above average precipitation, areas in red, orange, and purple, show below average precipitation.
If this model is right, southern Alberta and eastern Saskatchewan could be in for above average precipitation in the late winter and spring, while Saskatchewan can expect average precipitation.
Then, it goes dry from June to September all across the agricultural prairie.
It is clear that how much moisture we get in March, April, and May is crucial for the entire season, from seeding to harvest.

As mentioned above, this week looks to be a bit snowier across the agricultural prairie. The snow is welcome, but totals will still come in under 10 cm in most areas over the entire seven day period. Central portions of the three prairie provinces can expect less. This map shows expected snowfall up until the evening of Sunday February 9. Note most of the snow will fall Tuesday and Wednesday:

Monday
Alberta
The main weather threat for Alberta on Monday is cold air. An Arctic air mass that settled over Alberta on the weekend is expected to stay in place for several days. Extreme cold warnings across much of the province are likely over the next few nights as wind chills reach -40. Early Monday morning, temperatures from Red Deer to Drumheller to Oyen could drop to the -30s. The rest of the province will be close behind, with morning lows in the deep -20s.
The Arctic high will be located northwest of Edmonton. The circulation around it will cause some light upslope snow in southwestern Alberta through the afternoon. The snow will reach from Crowsnest across to Medicine Hat, and as far north as Calgary. The northern reach of the snow will expand to Leduc Monday night and early Tuesday. All day long, across the entire province, temperatures will remain in the mid -20s, with high wind chill.
Saskatchewan
Expect temperatures across Saskatchewan to remain in the mid -20s through the day, with pockets of -30s right after sunrise. These cold pockets will be found west of Saskatoon and along the US border between Cypress Hills and Grasslands National Park. With temperatures this low, it doesn’t take much wind to generate a significant wind chill. That can be expected across Saskatchewan all day. Arctic high pressure will provide sunshine to the northern 2/3rds of the province. In the south, there will be cloud cover, and in the southwest, some snow, between the Alberta boundary and Lake Alma.
Manitoba
The middle of the province can expect snow in the middle of the day, otherwise it should be dry across Manitoba Monday. Manitoba will be almost uniformly cold from north to south, with temperatures near -20 all day. There is the threat of a significant wind chill. Extreme cold warnings would be issued if the wind chill is expected to reach -40 for at least two hours. Weather warnings can always be found on Environment Canada’s landing page.
Tuesday
Alberta
Arctic high pressure stays in place. An upslope flow around the high will produce snow through most of the day between Edmonton and the US border. Most of the snowfall expected this week across the prairies will fall Tuesday and Wednesday. Snow in southern Alberta will begin to taper off in the afternoon. By midnight, the only snow still falling will be from Edmonton southeast into southern Saskatchewan. The snow will be light, but may cause disruptions to highway travel.
The main threat of the day, though, remains very low temperatures and high wind chills. Early morning temperatures will reach -30 north of Edmonton, and hang in the -25 range to the south. And, for the rest of the day, highs across the province will remain in the -20s.
Saskatchewan
Southern Saskatchewan will be mostly cloudy, cold, and snowy. Light snow will fall through much of the day across the southern part of the province, with the northern half remaining sunny and cold. Low temperatures and high wind chills will be a threat for the entire province. The snow in the south will continue through much of the day, though it will fall lightly, keeping accumulations low. North of the Trans Canada highway, early morning temperatures will reach -30 or below, with the rest of the province bottoming out near -25. And there won’t be much warming through the day, with temperatures remaining in the -20s.
Manitoba
As with the rest of the prairies, it will be cold. Temperatures are expected to remain in the -20s all day. The only area to reach -30 may be near Dauphin. That said, the -20s are still cold, and wind chill is expected to be a factor through the day. Most of the province should be snow-free under a partly cloudy to mainly sunny sky.
Wednesday
This map shows temperatures expected late Wednesday afternoon. It shows a slight moderating trend in Alberta and Manitoba, with temperatures climbing above the -20s. However, deep cold continues to affect southern Saskatchewan and parts of southeastern Alberta:

Alberta
While the map above shows some warming, cold temperature and wind chill threats remain for much of the prairies, including southeastern Alberta. No snow is expected in Alberta Wednesday south of Edmonton, but there will be flurries or periods of light snow in northern regions, particularly in the morning and midday. The Arctic high pressure moves south into Montana, which will allow for some warming. Note on the map above that, in general, the further north you go, the warmer it gets.
It will be very cold in the early morning. Places like Calgary, Lethbridge, and Medicine Hat getting their first chance at a -30 low temperature for this season. -30 is possible in most other areas of Alberta as well, right around or shortly after sunrise.
Saskatchewan
It will snow most of the day in northern Saskatchewan, and in the morning, a band of light snow will move from central Saskatchewan to the US. In eastern Saskatchewan, south of the Trans Canada Highway, the snow will continue through the afternoon, and may increase from light to moderate at the North Dakota border. As the map above shows, it will be quite cold in southern Saskatchewan, with temperatures staying in the -20s all day, except for the north, where it’s likely to be as much as 10 degrees warmer.
Manitoba
As Manitoba’s mid-section stays dry, there will be light snow in the northern third of the province, and in the south. Snow will be pushed in from the US into southern Manitoba, and may become significant along the US border, and as far north as highway 23. North of highway 23, lighter snow will fall as far north as the southern tips of Lakes Manitoba and Winnipeg. As the map above shows, it will be slightly warmer, with afternoon temperatures between -15 and -20.
Snow Totals
There has been at least some snow this week across the prairie, with most, as expected, falling in the area near the Yellowhead highway. Most of us, though, have had to bring out the plows and shovels over the past few days. While the snow totals aren’t going to make much of an impact to those areas with soil moisture deficits, any little bit helps. The following tables show new snow totals from Sunday Feb 2 to the morning of Thursday, Feb 6. The snow measurements were reported by CoCoRahs volunteer observers:
Manitoba Snow Totals:

Saskatchewan Snow Totals:

Alberta Snow Totals:

Thursday
Alberta
As high pressure builds over Banff National Park, the sky in southern Alberta is mainly sunny, and the wind lightens. No snow is expected for southern Alberta, but there will be scattered snow showers from Edmonton to the province’s northern boundary. We may break out of the bitter cold east of the foothills in the afternoon, with temperatures as high as -5 possible from Edmonton down the highway 2 corridor to Carway. Elsewhere, the warming trend continues, but across most of Alberta, highs will only get to -10 to -15.
Saskatchewan
The cold weather continues in southern Saskatchewan, with morning lows between -25 and -30, and afternoon highs near -15.. Milder Pacific air deflecting around an arctic ridge to the west, will land in northern Saskatchewan, where afternoon highs could reach -10. There is some moisture in that milder Pacific air, so light snow can be expected through the day in northern Saskatchewan, as the south stays dry. In the south, the big hazard is wind. The strong wind is causing blowing snow. This Thursday afternoon image is from the Trans Canada Highway near Wapella:

Manitoba
Snow is expected in the northern Interlake through the day, as well as east of Lake Winnipeg to the Ontario boundary. Elsewhere, and over the agricultural south, expect a partly cloudy day, and cold weather. Highs across the south will range from -10 in the west to -20 near the Whiteshell. Highs of -10 to -15 can be expected in the north, though it will be much colder along the Hudson Bay coast. Like Saskatchewan, wind is causing minor blowing snow issues on southern Manitoba highways. This Thursday afternoon image shows Highway 16 near Minnedosa:

Friday
Alberta
The morning begins cold. We’re not out of the Arctic air yet. Temperatures near sunrise will be near -20 or colder, rising in the afternoon to a range of -10 to -15 in most parts of the province. Three will be pockets of colder air along the Yellowhead from Edmonton into Saskatchewan.
High pressure will keep the Alberta sky clear and blue during the day, though some clouds can be expected between Cardston and Medicine Hat. If there is any precipitation out of this, it will be in the form of light snow, right along the US border. It’s unlikely the snow would extend any further north than Milk River.
Saskatchewan
Morning lows around -25….afternoon highs from -15 to -20. Cold weather continues for another day across Saskatchewan. The Arctic high that has kept the province so cold all week over southern Saskatchewan, and continues to give the gift of very cold air. It also keeps the sky mainly clear, eliminating any chance of precipitation in Saskatchewan.
Manitoba
There won’t be much weather drama in Manitoba, as no significant precipitation is expected. but there is also no relief from the cold, with temperatures across the province remaining near -20 through the day. Parts of central Manitoba, and a small area south and west of Brandon could warm up a bit further to -10 at best.
Saturday
Alberta
A weak lee Low develops near Pincher Creek on Saturday, and it may be just enough to draw some warmer air in from the west. Alberta will enjoy a rather warm day. West of highway 2, expect afternoon temperatures in the 0 to -5 range. East of highway 2, it will be colder, with highs remaining somewhere between -15 and -20, especially east of Drumheller. Most of the province remains in an area of high pressure, so there will be plenty of sunshine in most areas, though light snow is expected in the afternoon in northern regions.
Saskatchewan
Bright sunshine can be expected across the province all day long, and it will be a snow-free day. It remains cold, though, with highs of -10 south of the Trans Canada Highway. To the north, it will be colder, with temperatures peaking between -15 and -20. The cold weather is due to high pressure, which will also keep Saskatchewan mainly sunny, with no significant precipitation.
Manitoba
The weather remains cold, and the sky remains mainly sunny. High temperatures will range from -10 to -20, with some clouds in central Manitoba. No precipitation is expected. Just sunny and cold.
Sunday
Alberta
Seems its just one Arctic high after another. On Sunday, arctic high pressure forms along the Yukon/NWT border, and the circulation around it will produce an upslope flow along the southern Alberta foothills. That could mean light snow for the foothills, with the moisture provided by a weak low in Montana. This will bear watching. Any change in the location or intensity of the Low could make a big difference as to how much snow falls in southwestern Alberta. Afternoon highs will again range from -10 to -20 across the province.
Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan’s cold yet again on Sunday, with afternoon temperatures ranging from -15 to -25. While the south will stay mainly sunny, light snow can be expected in central Saskatchewan, north of Watrous, and southeast from there to Neepawa, Manitoba.
Manitoba
If you’re looking for the day the cold weather ends, this ain’t it. Afternoon temperatures across Manitoba will remain below -15. Light snow will arrive in west central Manitoba in the midday, and expand to the interlake in the afternoon. It should stay dry from the Trans Canada Highway south.
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