Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Meteorological winter winds down, but wintry weather keeps coming back
Spring Outlook
Meteorological spring begins this coming weekend, Sunday March 1! Meteorologists divide the seasons up in three month blocks according to the weather typically experienced. The months of March, April, and May are considered to be meteorological spring. There are indications temperatures across the southern prairies will be somewhat warmer than average, while the remainder will experience seasonally typical temperatures:
The precipitation outlook for the prairies is inconclusive, with equal chance of average, above average, and below average precipitation.
This last week of meteorological winter will be cold for most of the prairies, with more beneficial snowfall. The exception is southern Alberta, where temperatures could return to warmer values, similar to what they had earlier this month.
The charts below show expected snow until the evening of March 1:
As the above maps show, heavy snow is expected in the northern prairies, mainly in the boreal forest and on the permafrost of northern Manitoba. There will be much less snow in the agricultural south,, particularly in southern Saskatchewan, parts of which won’t see any new snow at all. And, this is the area that needs snow the most. The map below shows projected soil moisture for March 1. The white and brown areas show soil moisture deficits from Calgary to Brandon will continue into the start of meteorological spring:
Despite the low soil moisture numbers, the early spring water supply outlook in southern and central Alberta is actually positive, due to a significant mountain snowpack – as reported Friday, February 20 at My Lethbridge Now.
Day By Day Outlook
Monday
Alberta
A low-pressure system is forecast to sit southeast of Calgary on Monday morning, creating a sharp temperature divide across southern Alberta depending on its exact track. If Calgary remains just north of the low, downslope westerly winds could lift afternoon highs to around +7°C; however, if the system shifts slightly farther north, colder air would limit temperatures to near -5, resulting in a dramatic swing in the Calgary weather forecast. Warmer conditions are more certain south of High River, where a steady westerly flow is expected to push temperatures into the 7 to 9 degree range, with localized highs near 10 possible in areas with little or no snow cover. As the low moves east into Saskatchewan later in the day, a cold front will develop across southern Alberta, bringing a risk of convective precipitation along the boundary, including a slight chance of an isolated lightning strike — an unusual event for late February in Alberta. North central and northern regions of the province can expect light snow throughout the day, with highs near -15.
Saskatchewan
Manitoba
Cloud will thicken up Monday across Manitoba, with snow moving in from the west across central and northern regions. Though it will also be cloud in southern Manitoba, that region will remain dry, with a southerly wind. Any hope that the wind will bring warmer air to the province will be false. It will be a cold day, with highs of -12 to -17 across the southern 2/3 of the province. In the northern third, most areas will stay quite cold, with highs between -20 and -25, with a southeasterly wind causing blowing snow.
Tuesday
Alberta
Southern and central Alberta will see above average temperatures again today, while northern Alberta remains a few degrees below the seasonal norm. Afternoon highs of 5 to 7 are expected from Fort Macleod through Lethbridge and east toward Bow Island. North of Highway 3, temperatures will be cooler, ranging from 0 to -5. After early morning flurries in central Alberta, conditions turn mainly dry, although the sky will remain mostly cloudy. Light snow is forecast to redevelop in central and north central Alberta during the evening, with accumulations generally under 3 cm.
Saskatchewan
Snow will intensify across southern Saskatchewan, bringing some of the most significant accumulations in the province. Blowing snow is possible in open rural areas, reducing visibility for highway travel. The heaviest snowfall is expected during the early morning hours before high pressure builds in during the afternoon, allowing the sky to gradually clear. Highs in southwestern Saskatchewan will range from -5 to -7, while the remainder of the province will be colder, with afternoon temperatures between -11 and -18.
Manitoba
A fast-moving low-pressure system tracking through northern North Dakota will spread accumulating snow across southern Manitoba early in the day. Central and southern regions are likely to see 5 to 15 cm of snowfall, with the heaviest band expected just north of the Trans Canada Highway. Although the system will move quickly, snow may persist into the late evening before tapering off. Colder air settles in behind the system, with Tuesday highs across Manitoba ranging from -15 to -20.
Wednesday
Alberta
Bands of snow continue to cross far northern Alberta, while central and southern regions stay dry, with a westerly wind. And, that westerly wind will bring warm weather to most of Alberta. As the map below shows, positive afternoon temperatures are expected well into central and north central regions of the province.
Though it’s too soon to forecast with great confidence, it’s expected the westerly wind south of the Trans Canada highway will be strong. Whether gusts reach warning levels remain to be seen. The strongest gusts can be expected from Fort Macleod and Lethbridge south to Cardston and Milk River.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
A warm front will produce light snow as it crosses northern Saskatchewan, and curves toward southeastern Manitoba. Snow amounts will be light. Behind the warm front, the wind in central and southern Saskatchewan will shift to the west, and temperatures will climb. In southwestern Saskatchewan, temperatures will reach the 0 to 5 degree range. In southeastern and central Saskatchewan, expect highs between -2 and -8. Manitoba, on the other hand, won’t share the warmth. The warm front will have weakened considerably by the time it reaches Manitoba, so temperatures will remain in the -10 to -15 degree range. That’s about 5 degrees below average.
Thursday
Alberta and Saskatchewan
It’ll feel like spring across southern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan Thursday, with temperatures climbing into the double digits. Expect bright sunshine n both provinces south of the Yellowhead highway. The sunny, warm weather is due to a westerly flow around a low in northern Saskatchewan. That low will bring rain to central Alberta and snow to northern Alberta and Saskatchewan. It will also generate a very strong wind across southern Alberta, from Crowsnest Pass to Moose Jaw. The wind may reach warning criteria, though it’s too soon to forecast with certainty. In far northern regions, in the snow, and unaffected by the warm westerly wind, temperatures will remain below -10.
Manitoba
Early morning snow in southeastern Manitoba will quickly move eastward into Ontario. After a few hours of dry weather across the province, another band of snow will move into northwestern portions of the province. Agricultural regions will again miss out on the moisture. The sky will remain mainly cloudy. The good news is Manitoba will finally get a break from the bitter cold. A mild westerly wind will push temperatures in southwestern Manitoba above the melting point. Places such as Brandon, Dauphin, and Virden should see highs from 0 to 5. From Portage la Prairie east, expect highs between 0 and -5. In northern Manitoba, away from agricultural regions, highs will range from -10 to -20.
Friday
Alberta
A very unusual weather pattern sets up Friday, and it will bring beneficial snow to central and southern Alberta. A northerly wind, and an upslope circulation around a strong low in Manitoba, will generate significant snowfall in southern Alberta, especially in the foothills. Travel may become difficult. West of highway 2, more than 20 cm of snow is possible in western Alberta. Along highway 2, including places like Fort Macleod, Claresholm, Calgary, and Olds, expect 10-15 cm, with lesser amounts to the north and east. There will also be a sharp temperature drop, with highs in the south ranging from -7 to -10, and -10 to -15 in central Alberta. Across the province, temperatures will be between 5 and 12 degrees below average.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
As the map below shows, much of Saskatchewan and Manitoba will experience wind chills ranging from the -20s to the -40s Friday.
Both provinces will have a north wind Friday, and it will be particularly strong in southern Saskatchewan and all across Manitoba. A low to the east, and a high to the northwest are combining to produce the strong pressure gradient that will cause the brisk wind. Without the wind, temperatures will range from -6 to -10 along the US border. Everywhere else, temperatures will remain in the minus teens. Expect light snow through must of the day across both provinces, intensifying in southeastern Manitoba late in the day.
Saturday and Sunday
A big ridge of high pressure will keep the prairie provinces under sunshine through most of the weekend., though Saturday night and Sunday, a weak disturbance will bring on and off snow flurries to central Alberta. Sunday afternoon, due to an upslope circulation, snow will likely develop in the southwestern foothills of Alberta, but amounts are expected to be light. Weekend highs will range from -15 to -10 in southern Alberta, to the minus teens in central Saskatchewan to the cold -20s across Manitoba.
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