Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Somewhat warmer, but no drought relief this week.
It’s the familiar good news / bad news setup across the Canadian Prairies.
The good news is that the Prairies are finally breaking free from the grip of extreme cold. Recent Arctic outbreaks brought temperatures in the -30 to -40 range, with wind chills plunging into the -40s and -50s, but that bitter cold is easing. Alberta is rebounding quickly, with temperatures climbing back toward seasonal levels and above. The warm-up will be slower and more uneven in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, where lingering cold pockets will take longer to flush out.
The bad news is that dry weather continues to dominate the Prairie forecast. While temperatures are improving, meaningful snowfall remains scarce, and that is a growing concern. The region needs sustained snow events to help erase a significant precipitation deficit that has built up over the past several months.
The chart below highlights the problem clearly, showing the percentage of normal precipitation across the Prairies over the past 30 days. Much of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba has received well below average precipitation. In short, it’s been dry. Very dry. Without a shift toward more active storm systems, moisture shortages will persist, increasing risks for soil moisture recharge, livestock water supplies, and spring agricultural conditions.
This is a situation that can only get better or worse. Due to the passage of time, there is no maintaining of the status quo.
For agricultural regions in Alberta and Saskatchewan, the weather outlook this week remains predominantly dry. No widespread or meaningful snowfall is expected, offering little help in addressing ongoing precipitation deficits and soil moisture concerns.
There is some beneficial moisture in the forecast for Manitoba, but totals across southern and agricultural regions will be limited. Most farm areas are expected to see only light snowfall, especially when compared to central and northern Manitoba, where snowfall amounts will be more substantial.
The two maps below illustrate the total snowfall expected across the Prairies through early Sunday evening, highlighting the continued north/south contrast in precipitation and reinforcing concerns about dry conditions in key Prairie agricultural zones.
The Prairies remain locked in an active Arctic pattern, with high pressure systems repeatedly sliding south out of the Arctic. These highs will bring bursts of bitter cold, followed by brief moderation, especially across Alberta as Pacific air occasionally works inland, creating a significant thaw. Snowfall will generally be light, but wind chills, livestock stress, and travel impacts will be the dominant concerns again this week.
Monday
Alberta
Milder air returns to Alberta, especially in the south. A small area near Chief mountain is likely to warm up above the melting point. While temperatures remain below freezing elsewhere in southern Alberta, it will be considerably warmer than in recent days. It will be a good day for outdoor livestock work, as highs range from -5 to -10. In central and northern regions, expect daytime temperatures between -12 and -20. And, while the pattern remains dry, there is a chance for a few flurries in a line from near Red Deer northwest to Jasper. If this develops, there won’t be much more than a dusting of snow.
Saskatchewan
It’s another old, dry day in Saskatchewan. No significant snowfall is expected in agricultural areas. However, light snow persists in the northeast from a system moving toward Manitoba. In the southern third of the province, highs will range from -11 in the southwest to -20 elsewhere. In central and northern regions, most areas will remain below -20 all day long.
Manitoba
Light snow spreads from the northwest to the southeast. Accumulations are light, 2 to 4 cm. By the end of the day, most of Manitoba will have received snow, except for the southwestern corner, which will stay dry, with a northwest wind. There is a bit of relief from the cold. In southern and central Manitoba, highs will range from -15 to -20, and will stay below -20 in northern regions. However, that relief won’t necessarily be felt, with wind chills across the province ranging from -30 to -40.
Tuesday
Alberta
A few late morning flurries can’t be ruled out in the Lloydminster area, but the rest of Alberta will be dry. In the south, mild Pacific air moves in and the sky will remain sunny. Sunshine and warm air will cause snow to melt, which could lead to icy conditions when temperatures fall again in the evening. South of the Trans Canada Highway, expect high temperatures a few degrees above or below zero. Between the Trans Canada and Yellowhead highways, highs will be in the -5 to -10 range, and closer to -15 in northern Alberta.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
With highs near -10, southwestern Saskatchewan will be the warmest part of the two provinces on Tuesday. Arctic high pressure continues to dominate the eastern prairies. Both provinces will have a sunny day, but it will remain cold. In southern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba, highs will remain near -20, and in the north, between -25 and -30. The Interlake and southeastern Manitoba will “warm” to the -14 to -19 range. Dangerous wind chills will ease.
Wednesday
A widening temperature contrast will develop across the prairies on Wednesday. Lethbridge, Alberta could get close to 10 degrees, while Winnipeg only reaches -25, as another Arctic high drives southeast, toward the eastern prairies.
Alberta
High pressure in southeastern BC, near Elkford, will create a downslope flow across the Rockies. That, and a sunny sky, will produce a very warm day in southwestern Alberta, with temperatures reaching high single digit values. The rest of the province will be sunny as well, but won’t be as strongly influenced by the mild air from the west. As far north as Edmonton, highs will range from -5 to -8, and even in far northern regions of the province it will be seasonably mild, with highs from -10 to -15.
Saskatchewan
The mild Pacific air that has warmed Alberta for the past couple of days creeps across western Saskatchewan Wednesday. Highs of -5 to -10 can be expected in the western half of the province, while the east side remains mired in cold air as another Arctic high moves in from the Territories. East of Saskatoon, for example, temperatures will only reach the -25 to -30 range, while near Swift Current, highs could make it up to -5. Clouds are likely in the warmer air on the western side, while the new Arctic high will keep the sky clear over Eastern Saskatchewan.
Manitoba
An arctic high speeds in from the Territories, keep Manitoba frigid. The high will clear the sky, and it will be sunny. However, high temperatures across Manitoba from north to south will come in near -25. There is a slight possibility of afternoon snow between Lake Winnipeg and the Ontario boundary, but because it will be so cold, the snow will be very light, and accumulations won’t be significant.
Thursday
Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba
Check out this map of afternoon temperatures on Thursday:
Again, a huge contrast in temperatures develops from west to east. It’ll be very warm in southern Alberta, and very cold in southern Manitoba., particularly near Winnipeg. Manitoba’s cold air is due to an Arctic high centered right over southern Manitoba. Alberta’s warm air is due to a westerly downslope flow coming across the Rocky Mountains. In this situation, the strong wind will be confined to the area south of highway 3, but will remain below warning level, with peak gusts near 70 km/h. Saskatchewan is in between, with a bit of a tug of war between the warm air to the west and the cold air to the east. Wind chills for Manitoba and Eastern Saskatchewan will range from -25 to -30.
Friday
Alberta
Warm and dry conditions persist. Southern and Central Alberta will again see highs between 5 and 8 degrees. South of Highway 3, it will be even warmer, with double digit highs likely, especially in places where there is little or no snow on the ground, such as the Warner area, shown in this image:
In Central and Northern Alberta, most areas will see highs near -5.
Cloud cover will increase late in the day as a Pacific impulse approaches, but precipitation remains limited. Rain or freezing rain is likely to develop in the late afternoon in the Peace Region, spreading eastward overnight. The moisture is coming from a weak low that will form in the afternoon near Fort St. John, BC, moving into northern Alberta overnight.
Saskatchewan
Little change across Saskatchewan. Expect partly cloudy conditions and continued mild mid-winter temperatures on the western half of the province. Highs there remain in the -5 to -8 degree range. In the eastern half of Saskatchewan, expect highs between -12 and -15. These steady conditions are favourable for winter travel and outdoor work. Take advantage of it….big changes happen Saturday (read below)!
Manitoba
The core of the Arctic air mass settles over the province. This will be the coldest day in this outlook for Manitoba, with highs in the south between -20 and -25 and brisk north winds at times producing wind chills near -35. It will be slightly warmer in the north, with highs from -15 to -20, with wind chills near -25. A Low in the Territories will produce snow north of the 55th parallel.
Saturday
Alberta
A weak Pacific system moves inland, bringing increasing cloud cover and the chance of scattered flurries or freezing rain in central and northern regions. In central and southern Alberta, areas west of highway 23 should remain dry with a westerly wind. East of highway 23, rain will be possible in the early morning. The Low delivering the precipitation will move through Saskatchewan during the day, and as it pulls off to the east, the precipitation will taper off in Alberta during the afternoon.
Temperatures remain very mild for late January, with highs of 4 to 10 degrees in southern Alberta and -3 to -10 farther north. As the map below shows, northern regions could see 7-10 cm of snow on Saturday, while the rest of the province stays dry.
Saskatchewan
Expect wet weather across Saskatchewan on Saturday. Some areas will get rain, some will get freezing rain, and some will get snow. This will require two maps to illustrate. The first map shows precipitation of all types expected to fall in Saskatchewan between 7 pm Friday night and 7 pm Saturday:
This second map shows where only snow will fall:
North Central Saskatchewan gets snow, southeastern Saskatchewan gets snow, but southwestern Saskatchewan can expect 3-5 mm of rain on the last day of January. Mild air will rush into southern Saskatchewan, where highs will range from 1 to 5 degrees. Elsewhere, expect highs between -5 and -10.
Manitoba
There will be a slight moderation in temperatures for Manitoba. In the south, west of the Red River Valley, highs will range from -6 to -10. East of the Red River Valley, and in central and northern regions, highs will range from -11 to -16. The sky will become partly cloudy late in the day, and as the map above shows, trace amounts of snow are possible.
Sunday
Alberta
Mild conditions continue into February. The sky will be partly cloudy, with a chance of late day flurries in the northwestern corner of Alberta . From Lethbridge to Milk river, expect highs near 12 or 13 degrees, with mid single digit highs expected anywhere and everywhere south of Edmonton. North of the capital city, highs will range from -2 to -20.
Looking ahead, strengthening ridging suggests above average temperatures will continue next week.
Saskatchewan
A weak disturbance exits the province, leaving isolated flurries early, then partial clearing later in the day. The flurries will hit southeastern Saskatchewan in the morning, then move out by midday, leaving behind partly cloudy conditions. Snow accumulations will be minor. The wind will come from the southeast, soi highs in the southern half of the province will range from -2 to -9, and in the north, it will be much colder, with highs in the boreal forest closer to -20.
Manitoba
Moderation continues as milder air moves in from the west. Expect a mostly cloudy day. There is a chance of flurries across southern Manitoba and the interlake through the morning, with pockets of heavier snow near Gimli, and south along the Red River Valley. Accumulations will be near 5 cm across the region. The snow will taper off in the afternoon.
Daytime highs recover to -12 to -20, a slight improvement from late week conditions.
READ: David Spence: Weather Tech on the Farm
