Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Another cool, wet week.  Warmer by the weekend

The cool, wet, and active weather pattern will continue this week across the prairies, with showers, thunderstorms, and chilly conditions.   A warming trend is expected by the weekend, when temperatures could climb back up to seasonal averages, even above.

There will be more rain, to add to what has already helped with soil moisture deficits.  And, although it may have come too late for early seeded crops, those planted later in the season are reaping the benefits of the added moisture.     The wet weather has, for many farmers, delayed the first cut of hay.   It might not be until the weekend before those operations can resume.  As of Sunday, the prairies were looking quite wet.  And green.

Highway 2 near Granum, Alberta:

Courtesy: 511 Alberta

 

Highway 7 at Vanscoy, Saskatchewan:

 

Highway 1 at Dacotah, Manitoba

Unfortunately, the Saskatchewan and Manitoba highway cameras also indicate the eastern prairies are dealing with considerable forest fire smoke.

Indeed there was a lot of rain in Alberta over the period between July 13 and July 20.  Less in Saskatchewan, and a lot less in Manitoba.   The following three charts were compiled with data from CoCoRaHS:

 

Alberta

Saskatchewan

 

Manitoba

 

With lesser amounts of rain,  river flows and lake levels remain near or below average across southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba.   In Alberta, where more rain has fallen, many lakes, reservoirs, and rivers have above average levels of flow and capacity.  Both the flow and water level of the Oldman River took a big jump last week, and remain above average:

Water is high at the Forty Mile Reservoir:

 

 

And the Bow River has been running higher than the normal range since July 19:

 

This week, for the most part, more of the same:

Monday

Alberta

The day begins with rain in the southwestern foothills coming up from the southwest and a u-shaped band of much stronger showers from Peace River south to Edmonton, then northeast to Fort McMurray.   The u-shaped band moves south.   Both areas of rain are on a collision course for central Alberta.   By the mid to late afternoon, rain is widespread across southern Alberta, with thunderstorms in and south of Edmonton.

The two sources of precipitation then meet in central Alberta with rain falling in the southern half of Alberta through the evening and overnight.  The wind will be light, with the exception of the area of thunderstorms near Edmonton.   The heaviest rainfall accumulations will be in the Peace region, with up to 30 mm. The wet weather will limit temperatures, with highs across Alberta reaching the mid teen

Saskatchewan

Showers are expected through much of the day between Saskatoon and the Manitoba boundary.  Southern Saskatchewan will remain dry, and in the southeast, it will be very warm, with temperatures reaching the high 20s.  The northern forests will also see rain on Monday.  In the afternoon and evening, a disturbance in Montana will send some showers and thundershowers into southwestern Saskatchewan.   While most of Saskatchewan will be dry, those areas that do get rain, won’t get much.  Accumulations will likely fall short of 10 mm.    In areas with afternoon rain, highs will only peak in the mid to high teens.   Elsewhere, expect afternoon temperatures in the low 20s.

Manitoba

In southern Manitoba, from the Red River Valley west to Saskatchewan, it will be warm, with highs in the high 20s.   Elsewhere across the province, temperatures will only reach the high teens or low 20s. Before sunrise, a cluster of thunderstorms will clip the southwestern corner of the province, before intensifying as it reaches North Dakota.    Some thunderstorms from that system will move into Manitoba’s Red River Valley, triggering some early morning thunderstorms in Winnipeg and the interlake.

Scattered showers and storms will continue through the early afternoon in southeastern Manitoba, and up north, between Flin Flon and Thompson.  While those storms will be out of the area by late afternoon, the atmosphere remains unstable, and thunderstorms are likely to pop up again, moving west to east across southern Manitoba in the late afternoon and evening.

 

 

Tuesday

Alberta

A developing low over Montana and Idaho will combine with a frontal boundary to bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to southern,  south central and western Alberta.   Most areas can expect 10-25 mm of rain, with more in areas with stronger thunderstorms.   Minor flooding is possible in low lying areas.    There is a chance southern Alberta, along highway 3 between Lethbridge and Medicine Hat may miss out on this crucial precipitation.

Rain will fall through the day between Edmonton and the US border, tapering off in the late afternoon and evening.  Thunderstorms are likely, especially in southeastern Alberta. It will be very cool, with highs in the low to mid teens in southern and south central Alberta.   It will be warmer and drier in the northern part of the province, with highs rising to the low 20s.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

Showers and storms from the system in Montana will drift northward into southern Saskatchewan in the early morning.   Thunderstorms are likely near sunrise south of the Trans Canada Highway.  By midmorning, the showers and storms will spread into southwestern Manitoba, as far north as Dauphin, and as far east as Winnipeg.   The storms will intensify as they cross the Red River Valley in the early afternoon.

As the storms move into Ontario in the late afternoon,  the rain stops in southern Manitoba.  It will remain cloudy with high temperatures in the high teens and low 20s.    In central Saskatchewan, it will be even cooler, with highs in the mid teens at best.    The map below shows the rain expected Tuesday in Saskatchewan and Manitoba:

 

 

Wednesday

Alberta

Alberta will make a transition to drier weather on Wednesday.  Just a few scattered showers are left, and they will reach southern Alberta, especially in the area between Lethbridge and Medicine Hat.  There may also be a few morning showers near Grande Prairie and Peace River.   The showers in the Peace country will continue on and off through the day, with the possibility of some afternoon thunderstorms.

The showers in the south move into Saskatchewan, where they will also intensify and turn into thunderstorms, after leaving Alberta.   In the absence of wet weather, it will warm up a bit in Alberta, though temperatures will remain cooler than average,   Highs on Wednesday across Alberta are only expected to reach the low 20s.

Saskatchewan

Southern and central areas of Saskatchewan will experience showers and thunderstorms throughout the day.  The rainfall is not organized, and is not associated with any kind of significant weather system.   So, in most areas were it rains, expect less than 10 mm.   The northern half of Saskatchewan will stay dry, and temperatures across the province will peak in the high teens and low twenties, as this cooler-than-average weather pattern continues.

Manitoba

There may be a few isolated showers in southern Manitoba during the early part of the day.   Later on, cloud cover thickens with showers and isolated thunderstorms during the late afternoon in the southwest.   There won’t be a lot of water coming down from those clouds, with accumulations of under 5 mm, most of which will fall in the evening.    Despite the drier weather, it won’t turn significantly warmer on Wednesday.   Highs will reach 20-22 degrees across agricultural regions of Manitoba.

 

Thursday

Alberta

There is a severe thunderstorm risk Thursday in central Alberta, and Environment Canada has issued watches for the affected areas:

 

 

A developing storm system and strong winds high in the atmosphere are creating ideal conditions for organized thunderstorms, including the potential for hail, damaging winds, and possibly tornadoes.  Within the zone outlined in the map above, the most active areas will be from Calgary north Edmonton, and east of Drayton Valley toward central Alberta.   The storms will develop in the late afternoon and continue to the evening, and may include supercells, which are large, rotating thunderstorms.   Tornadoes are always possible in a supercell environment.   Be weather aware, and refer to Environment Canada through the period for weather warnings and radar updates

Northern Alberta may see heavy rain at times, but widespread flooding is not expected.

 South of Calgary, expect highs between 25 and 30.  Highs will reach the low 20s in most of northern Alberta.

Saskatchewan

Southern Saskatchewan will be mostly quiet today with a dry southerly wind,  but western and central regions may see thunderstorms arriving in the evening from Alberta. Some of these could be strong to severe, especially near the Alberta boundary.  Watch for isolated storm cells developing from Cold Lake to Saskatoon and Davidson.  Heavier rain is expected ahead of a Low pressure system moving into northern Saskatchewan overnight from northern Alberta.  This rain will be well away from any agricultural territory.   Temperatures across the province will peak in the mid twenties Thursday.

Manitoba

There will be mostly calm conditions Thursday across southern Manitoba, though there is a slight chance of pop-up showers or non-severe thunderstorms in the afternoon between Emerson and Kenora, Ontario.   Temperatures in southern and central Manitoba will peak in the low to mid twenties.   It will be somewhat cooler in the north, with highs in the high teens and low 20s.

 

Friday

Alberta

It will be another active storm day in southern Alberta, especially near the foothills.   A cold front pushing south will combine with warm, humid air and strong upper winds.   This is a recipe for strong to severe storms, most likely to break out in the area between Calgary and Lethbridge.  Hail, strong winds, and heavy rain are the main risks.   Even though the rain could fall heavily at times, accumulations are not expected to be significant, perhaps only 5 to 10 mm,  except in the foothills from Cochrane to Canmore, which could receive 10-20 mm.   Because of the wet weather from Calgary west into the foothills, highs in that region will only reach the low teens.   In southeastern Alberta, where the rain will arrive later, highs will be in the low 20s.

Saskatchewan

As a weakening cold front slides across southern Saskatchewan from the northwest to the southeast, southern and central regions could see some strong, but isolated thunderstorms.   The storms could break out between the Alberta boundary and Regina or Yorkton, extending north to Prince Albert.   Should severe storms develop, the main risks will be hail, gusty wind, and heavy rainfall.  The chance of storms developing in this area are low, and if they do form, the storms will produce minimal accumulations.    Most areas of southern Saskatchewan will get no precipitation at all, as these storms will be isolated.   More organized rainfall is expected throughout the day north of Saskatoon.  Temperatures in the north will peak in the high teens.   In the south, it will be much warmer, with highs between 25 and 30…with that heat enhancing the storm risk.

Manitoba

Friday could be a stormy day across much of the province.  A strong storm system moving in will bring widespread thunderstorm activity, especially in the afternoon and evening.  There will be very humid conditions as a trough and cold front move in from the west.   This is thunderstorm juice.   So, strong to severe thunderstorms are likely, especially in the central and southern regions.  These storms could bring hail, strong winds, heavy rain , and frequent lightning.  The storms will intensify overnight and continue into Saturday morning.    Not only will the atmosphere be humid, it will be hot.  Sticky weather, with temperatures peaking close to 30.

 

Saturday

Alberta

Upslope circulation around a ridge of high pressure in northern BC will bring rain to western Alberta.   Early in the morning, expect rain in the foothills, through Calgary, and in a west-to-east line along and north of the Trans Canada highway toward Saskatchewan.   Rain will continue in Calgary and the foothills through the day,  whilst tapering off east of Calgary.   To the north, afternoon showers and thundershowers will develop in central Alberta, then northwestward toward the Peace region.   And, by midnight, expect heavy rain between Edmonton and Jasper, with light rain returning to southeastern Alberta.   It will be rather chilly, with highs in the teens, except for southeastern Alberta.   The afternoon break in the rain there will allow temperatures to climb to the mid twenties.

Saskatchewan

It will be a drier day in Saskatchewan, and much of the province will see plenty of sunshine.  Temperatures will peak in the mid twenties, close to the seasonal average, despite the area being affected by the cold front that caused the rainy weather Friday.  Lingering showers or storms are possible in the eastern and southern parts of the province early in the day.

Manitoba

Once early morning thunderstorms clear out of Eastern Manitoba during the day, most of the region will become sunny.   However the air mass will be warm and humid, and there will be a risk of afternoon thunderstorms south of Lake Manitoba in the late afternoon and early evening.   That risk will expand Saturday night, and through the night, rain and thunderstorms can be expected across the southern part of the province from Saskatchewan to Ontario.  Across Manitoba except for the far north, highs will reach the mid to high 20s.

 

Sunday

Alberta

Rain will continue in central and southern Alberta Wednesday, though it will be weaker and more intermittent.   The BC High that created the upslope rain in the south expands, clearing out the sky in northern and central Alberta.    The clockwise circulation will maintain the rain in the foothills throughout the day, while the rain tapers off elsewhere in the southern part of the province.  Because of the northern source of air within the high pressure system, it will be cool, with highs in the teens across most of Alberta.   In the southeast, it’s possible temperatures will reach the low 20s.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

The day begins with rain and possibly thunderstorms in western Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba.    The wet weather will persist through the day in Manitoba, as rain tapers off in Saskatchewan.   Afternoon thunderstorms are likely in the Red River Valley and east toward Ontario.      Highs in Saskatchewan will hit the low 20s.  In Manitoba, it won’t be as uncomfortably hot and humid as in the previous couple of days.   Highs in southern Manitoba will come in near 20 degrees, which will make it more comfortable despite persistently high dew points.

 

 

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