Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada)  –  The wet weather pattern continues in Alberta and Saskatchewan

Though the timing was poor – right in the middle of planting season – plenty of beneficial moisture fell on the prairies in the past week, and there is more to come this week for Alberta and Saskatchewan.  Manitoba will experience a drying trend.   And for Manitoba, it’s needed.  Rainfall amounts in that province over the past week were excessive in some areas.  The chart below shows rainfall totals from Sunday May 11 to the morning of Sunday May 18:

 

 

 

Of the three prairie provinces, Manitoba had the most impressive rainfall totals.    Here is the chart showing Saskatchewan rainfall over the same period of time:

 

 

Rainfall totals in Alberta’s foothills were quite high,  and even though less rain fell east of the higher terrain, there was enough in most areas to improve low soil moisture levels, and increase reservoir volumes.   Alberta’s not done.  As you’ll read below, more rain is expected this week:

 

 

Data in the above tables comes from trained volunteers in the CoCoRahs network.   Farmers and others all across North America contribute data to the system, which provides valuable information, especially from places where official measurements are not taken.    These volunteer observations are often used by Environment Canada and the US National Weather Service for their records, and to inform their forecasts.   If you’d like to join CoCoRahs,  here’s a link:  https://www.cocorahs.org/Content.aspx?page=application

The latest Alberta crop report shows across Alberta, 47 percent of major crops have been seeded, and that’s way ahead of the average of 26 percent for this time of year.   In the South, seeding of major crops is already 76 percent complete.

Seeding in Saskatchewan is 49 percent complete, and Manitoba is at 33 percent.    With dry weather all week, Manitoba will catch up, while seeding operations in Alberta and Saskatchewan will be interrupted by more wet weather.

Monday

Alberta

Cool and unsettled conditions continue in Alberta on Monday, though there won’t be any organized rainfall.  A southeasterly wind will keep the atmosphere somewhat destabilized, so convective showers are possible throughout central Alberta and the Grande Prairie area.   A lee trough parallel to the eastern slopes of the Rockies will provide a westerly wind over the foothills, where it should remain dry, after some early morning showers.   It will be cooler than average, with highs in the mid teens across southern Alberta.   In the north, showers are likely throughout the day, with chilly highs in the low double digits.

Saskatchewan

A strong Low pressure system in the Oklahoma panhandle will push rain northeast through Iowa, then northwest through the Dakotas, Montana, and into southwestern Saskatchewan.  Rainfall will be light to moderate across the south through the day.   In the afternoon, rain will taper off in southeastern Saskatchewan, but push farther northwest to Lloydminster, and Alberta’s Lakeland.  Northern Saskatchewan will stay dry.   In the south, with the rain, temperatures will reach highs near 10.  In the north, where it will be drier, highs can be expected to reach the low double digits.

Manitoba

Precipitation is not expected anywhere in Manitoba on Monday.  There will be an easterly wind, so it won’t be terrifically warm.  Highs will reach the mid teens at best.   The easterly wind is an outflow out of an Arctic high over Hudson Bay, bringing cool air into the region.   Most of the province will have a sunny day, except for southwestern Manitoba, which will be under cloud cover.

 

Tuesday

Alberta

Unsettled weather continues in Alberta, thanks to a weak area of low pressure that meanders just south of Calgary during the early part of the day.   In the morning, showers are expected from Milo through Calgary, Red Deer, and Edmonton, and north to Athabasca.   There will also be early morning showers or light rain from Cold Lake, along the Saskatchewan Boundary to Cypress Hills and Montana.   Rain and showers in these areas will continue  off and on through the day.   In the afternoon, showers will develop south of Calgary toward Fort Macleod.    Convective showers or thunderstorms are possible through central and southern Alberta into the evening hours.  Afternoon highs across the province will again reach the low to mid teens.

Saskatchewan

It will be a cool,  wet Tuesday in southern and central Saskatchewan.    Rainfall is less likely in the north, but it will be cloudy and cool there, too.   High temperatures across Saskatchewan will be limited to the high single digits, or ten degrees at best.   The Oklahoma low that provided the rainfall on Monday will move northeast to Iowa, but will continue to feed precipitation as far northwest as southern Saskatchewan.

Manitoba

Planting and seeding will continue across Manitoba Tuesday, as it will be another dry day with no significant weather.   Cool air continues to come in from an Arctic high pressure system over Hudson Bay,  so highs will remain below average Monday, reaching the mid teens.

 

Wednesday

Alberta

A low pressure system will develop north of the BC/Alberta boundary in the Northwest Territories.  A trough southeast of the low will stretch into southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, and there will be rain along that trough during the early morning.    As the day goes on, the low will tighten up, and the trough will weaken.    However, rain showers will continue along the Saskatchewan boundary from Oyen north to Cold Lake.    With the unstable airmass, showers, and perhaps thundershowers will pop up in the afternoon over the foothills from Edson to Longview.   Highs across the province will reach the mid teens, with a chance for highs near 17 in Lethbridge and Medicine Hat.

Saskatchewan

Southern and central Saskatchewan can expect showers or light rain in the morning, tapering off somewhat in the afternoon.   Seeding and planting will again be disrupted by the rainfall.   Accumulations should be rather light, but will preserve the moisture in the topsoil.   Southwestern Saskatchewan, west of Swift Current, and south of the Trans Canada Highway should stay dry, with sunshine.   Elsewhere in the province, where it doesn’t rain, it will remain cloudy.   High temperatures across Saskatchewan will range from 13 to 16 degrees.

Manitoba

There is again very little change to Manitoba’s weather, as cool,  sunny conditions continue.  It will again be an ideal day for seeding, and with highs in the low teens, you’ll be able to keep the air conditioner in your tractor switched off.   As has been the case for several days, there will be a light easterly wind drawing cool air from the stalled Hudson Bay low.

 

Thursday

Alberta

Non severe thunderstorms are likely in Alberta Thursday, north of Calgary.  There doesn’t appear to be enough fuel to make the storms severe, but watch the sky, and keep yourself safe from lightning.   The storms could develop over a wide area  – it’s almost impossible to narrow down any specific target locations.    It won’t be a particularly hot day, with highs across most of the province only reaching the mid to high teens.

 

Saskatchewan

Bright sunshine and warmer weather finally return to Saskatchewan on Thursday.   Temperatures will reach the 16 to 21 degree range across the province.  Farmers who’ve had to delay seeding due to the wet weather earlier in the week can get back onto the fields.   The warmer, 20 degree weather will occur in east central regions.    There may be enough instability in that area to generate some afternoon showers and perhaps weak thunderstorms northwest of Saskatoon, but it doesn’t look like there will be a threat of severe weather.

Manitoba

Manitoba’s quiet weather week continues on Thursday, with sunshine, and no significant weather.   Highs across the province will fall in the 15 to 18 degree range.

 

Friday

Alberta

Friday’s weather in Alberta will be similar to what happened Thursday.   Areas that received fog early Thursday morning can expect it again early Friday.   And, non-severe thunderstorms are again expected over a wide area north of Calgary.   The storms are not likely to become severe.  This instability is due to a lingering inverted surface trough, which will remain in Alberta just east of the Rockies until Saturday.   Once it’s gone, the weather pattern flips, and it becomes more stable, sunnier, and warmer.   Temperatures in southern and central Alberta will reach the high teens Friday afternoon, with even warmer weather in northern Alberta.   North of Grande Prairie and Fort McMurray, temperatures should reach the low 20s.

 

Saskatchewan

The atmosphere over Western Saskatchewan will be a bit unstable Friday, leading to a good chance of convective showers or afternoon thundershowers, especially in the southwestern corner of the province.    The rest of Saskatchewan should stay dry, and remain mainly sunny.    It will be near perfect planting weather, with a southeast breeze, and afternoon highs between 15 and 20 in most agricultural regions.  In the forests to the north, it will be even warmer, with highs in the low to mid 20s.    And, if the showers and storms develop as expected in southwestern Saskatchewan, high temperatures will be limited to the 10-15 degree range.

 

Manitoba

The large High pressure system that has spent the week over Hudson Bay still refuses to move, so Manitoba will have another dry, warm day.   Highs across almost the entire province will reach 15 to 20 degrees, though it will be cooler along the Hudson Bay shore.   Across the agricultural south, there will be a light to moderate east wind.

 

 

Saturday

On Saturday, and through the weekend, there is a flip in the weather pattern.  There will be a change from a period of cool, wet weather to sunny, and sometimes hot weather.  This will carry on into next week.   There are signals that we’ll flip back to a cool, wet pattern during the first week of June.

Alberta

Overnight showers and non-severe thunderstorms across the province will end by sunrise, and the rest of Saturday will be dry, sunny and warm   And upper ridge of high pressure will build over the prairies,  and Saturday will be the first of several days of dry, stable weather.   This keeps the planting window open as farmers work to finish the job.   Highs in the 20-25 degree range can be expected throughout Alberta Saturday.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

The upper level high that builds over the prairies on the weekend will provide plenty of sunshine to Saskatchewan and Manitoba as well.   Saturday’s sky will be sunny, the wind will be light out of the southeast, and temperatures will rise to the mid 20s in Saskatchewan, and the high teens to low 20s in Manitoba.   While it’s perfect weather for completing seeding operations, it’s not helpful for the volatile fire situation, particularly in Manitoba.

 

Sunday

Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba

The strong upper ridge of high pressure that developed Saturday, will keep the prairie sky clear throughout Sunday.   No active weather is expected in any of the three prairie provinces.   Wind in Alberta and Saskatchewan will come from the south, and in Manitoba, from the east.   The surface high that’s been over Hudson Bay all week is still there Sunday, providing the easterly wind for southern Manitoba.   The temperature map below indicates it will feel like summer on the prairies this weekend.   The map is valid Sunday afternoon.

 

 

In Alberta on Sunday, expect highs in the mid to high 20s, with temperatures reaching the low to mid 20s in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.   There is a possibility of 30 degree temperatures in Wood Buffalo, in northeastern Alberta.

 

 

 

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