Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Hot weather this week; storms in Alberta Monday

An upper ridge of high pressure will dominate the prairies all week, and across the region, we can expect plenty of sunshine and a bit of heat.    There is, however, the potential for a severe weather day Monday in Alberta.  A cold front with thunderstorms in a north-south lineup will cross the province.   Strong wind and large hail will be the primary threat as the front passes Monday.  In some areas, likely in central and north central Alberta, wind gusts may reach 80 to 100 km/h.    The front is the result of a Pacific system that will come ashore, and weaken.   Despite the weakening of the system, instability will increase over Alberta, leading to the potential for a severe weather threat.   Expect storms in the late afternoon and throughout the evening on Monday in a north south line through the middle of the province.   No severe weather is expected in Saskatchewan or Manitoba, until perhaps Friday.

This will give an opportunity for many farmers to complete seeding,  which is already well ahead of schedule, according to crop reports from all three provinces.

If all goes as expected, Thursday will be the hottest day of the week.   The map below shows expected temperatures in the late afternoon or early evening Thursday, depending on time zone.   The area shaded in white indicates temperatures between 30 and 35 degrees.  It covers a lot of Alberta and central Saskatchewan, and parts of southern Manitoba.

 

Monday

Alberta

As mentioned above, a north-south line of thunderstorms will develop right down the middle of the province in the late afternoon and early evening.  These will be high-based thunderstorms, so the may threats will be strong wind, and possibly severe hail.    The storms will fire up in the mid to late afternoon, then slowly drift from west to east across the province well into the evening.   The line of storms will transect the entire province, from the Northwest Territories to Montana.   The only areas most likely to escape the potential for severe storms are the foothills and mountains.   There is a chance for 30 degree highs in Wood Buffalo.  East of the foothills, most of Alberta will warm to the mid to high 20s….enough heat to fuel the storms.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

No significant weather  or non-severe storms are anticipated in either province Monday.  Both provinces will be sunny,  Afternoon highs in northern Manitoba, and central and northern Saskatchewan will reach the high 20s.  It will actually be a bit cooler in southern regions, with highs between 20 and 25.   In Saskatchewan, there will be a brisk wind out of the south, with calm conditions in Manitoba.   With little change in the weather for most of the week,  there is a good chance to make headway on seeding…perhaps even complete the job.   The persistence of the warm and dry weather, though, also enables the fires in southeastern Manitoba to grow….continuing to spread smoke through the region, and back west to the Red River Valley.

 

Tuesday

Alberta

Tuesday is the first of several quiet days in Alberta, following Monday’s stormy weather.   The upper ridge of high pressure over the prairies will deflect any incoming storms well to the north, causing rain in the Territories.   Alberta stays dry Tuesday,  with plenty of sunshine.  In the south, high temperatures will reach the high 20s, with highs in the low 20s expected across central and northern regions.

Saskatchewan

Warm and dry conditions continue for Saskatchewan, with central regions reaching highs between 25 and 30 degrees.  It will be a few degrees cooler near the US border and in the far northern forests.   There is a possibility of a few showers, or non severe thundershowers popping up in the afternoon between Swift Current and Rosetown.

Manitoba

Sunny, dry, warm weather can be expected through the day in Manitoba.   Unfortunately, humidity levels will be low, which will provide firefighters with no help at all as they work on the fires in southeastern Manitoba.   High temperatures will be in the low to mid twenties in the agricultural south, rising to the mid to high twenties in central and northern regions.

 

Wednesday

Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba

All three prairie provinces will be sunny, dry, and very warm on Wednesday.   A surface ridge of high pressure is centered over Saskatchewan, right in the middle of the prairies.    This will keep the sky clear, with no chance of any precipitation anywhere on the prairies on Wednesday.   It won’t be a day to be working the fields in a tractor without air conditioning!    Highs will reach the 30s in Alberta’s Peace region, and along the Saskatchewan/Manitoba boundary near Duck Mountain.   Elsewhere across the prairies, highs will range between 25 and 30 degrees.

Seeding across the prairies is nearly complete, thanks to ideal weather conditions and few rain delays.  And much of the planted crop has already emerged.   The next Alberta crop report comes out Friday, a day after this post is written.   The numbers out of Saskatchewan and Manitoba are impressive.   In Saskatchewan 72 percent of the overall crop has been planted, comparad to just 12 percent at this time last year.  And in Manitoba, the work is almsot done, with 85 percent of the crop in the ground, compared to the long term average of 69 percent.

As the chart below shows, rainfall amounts in Alberta have been close to the long term average, but parts of central Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba could use much more moistire.   The chart shows the percentage of average precipitation from April 1 to May 29.

 

Thursday

Thursday is the hottest day of the week on the prairies:

The map depicts expected temperatures at 7:00 pm Central, 6:00 Mountain time on Thursday. Highs in the 30s will be widespread in Alberta,  with most locations in Saskatchewan and Manitoba reaching the high 20s.

Alberta

A  change in the weather comes to Alberta late in the day Thursday.   After a scorching hot sunny afternoon, the atmosphere over the foothills becomes unstable as a cold front plows through from west to east.    Spectacular towering clouds should form in the area, kicking off thundershowers in the afternoon north of Sundre.    Through the evening, the area of disturbed weather expands as the front crosses the province, generating showers and storms from the NWT boundary south to Medicine Hat and the Cypress Hills.  Overnight into Friday morning, the chance of showers or non-severe thunderstorms can’t be ruled out along the highway 2 corridor from Edmonton south to the US border.  The area between Lethbridge and the BC boundary may be the only part of Alberta to stay dry through the night.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

Unlike Alberta, there is no change in the weather for Saskatchewan and Manitoba on Thursday.  It’s still sunny, dry, and hot, as shown on the map above.

 

Friday

Alberta

Thursday night’s showers will end up in Saskatchewan through the morning.   The wet weather will cool the atmosphere, and Friday’s temperatures will be considerably lower than those on Thursday.   It will still be warm, though, as temperatures will reach the low to mid 20s.in the south will reach the high 20s.   The heaviest rain and the greatest chance of thunderstorms will be in the Wood Buffalo region early in the day.  The wet weather will clear out, heading into northern Saskatchewan in the afternoon.

Saskatchewan

Though high 20s are more likely,  there is still a good chance temperatures will climb to the 30s in southeastern Saskatchewan Friday,   In the rest of southern Saskatchewan, highs will reach the the mid twenties.  While rain falls in central and northern Saskatchewan, the agricultural south should remain dry for most of the day.   There is a good possibility that showers will develop late in the day near the Manitoba boundary, close to the town of Hudson Bay.   After developing in the afternoon, these showers would move quickly into Manitoba during the evening.

Manitoba

West of the Red River Valley, high temperatures in southern Manitoba are again expected to climb to the low 30s, with the rest of the province warming to the mid twenties.   Most of Saturday iwll be mainly sunny and dry.   In the early morning, though, clouds and showers will move in from a disturbance in Saskatchewan, and by evening, rain or showers will settle in from Lynn Lake southeast to Winnipeg.   By late morning, the rain fizzles out, and the sky clears, leaving sunshine for most of the day.

 

Saturday

Alberta

Early Saturday morning, a Low forms northwest of Edmonton near Fox Creek.  Because of this low, rain will first fall along the foothills north of Jasper, moving south in the afternoon to include highway 16 west of Edmonton.  Temperatures in the area will be limited to the low double digits.   Elsewhere in Alberta, it will be dry, and hot.  East of Highway 2 from Edmonton to Montana, highs will reach the low 30s.   To the west, between highway 2 and the foothills expect highs between 25 and 30.  It will stay dry in southern Alberta, but as the day goes on, the Low will move toward the Saskatchewan boundary, and the area of rain will expand into the evening to include most of central Alberta.

Saskatchewan

It will be another dry, warm day in Saskatchewan, until overnight, when disturbed weather comes in from Alberta (see the Sunday forecast).   30 degree high tempeatures are likely in western and west-central Saskatchewan, and the rest of the province can expect to achieve highs between 25 and 30 degrees.

Manitoba

Expect early morning rain across northern Manitoba, and early morning showers in the Winnipeg area.   By midday, the rain will taper off in both areas, to be replaced by bright sunshine.  It will be seasonably warm, with most of the province warming to the low 20s, except for the area south of the Trans Canada Highway, which should reach highs between 25 and 30 degrees.

Sunday

Alberta

Southeastern Alberta should stay dry all day.   The rest of the province, though, will see active weather.   A cold front from a Northwest Territories low will cross the province from the northeast to the southwest.   There will be rain, and maybe thunderstorms along the front, with the rain reinforced by a low in Saskatchewan.   The heaviest rain will fall in the central foothills, with early morning snow! at higher elevations, including the Icefields Parkway.   While this is not agricultural land, there are benefits for farms across the prairies, as moisture over the mountains is reloaded, and will eventually make its way downstream onto the prairies.   The rain over the foothills and central Alberta will continue through the day, briefly reaching as far south as Calgary.  In most areas, highs will come in between 15 and 20, with even cooler conditions in north central Alberta and the foothills.

Saskatchewan

A low in central Saskatchewan, tied into another low in the Northwest Territories, will bring rain to northern Saskatchewan and showers to southern Saskatchewan Sunday.   This will delay whatever seeding is still going on in the area.  Expect the showers to continue over the agricultural south through the day.   By the end of the day, the two lows will merge into one, and heavy rain is expected Sunday night in northern Saskatchewan.  Because of the wet weather, highs of only 15 to 20 degrees are expected.

Manitoba

It will be another dry day in Manitoba’s agricultural regions.   Active weather will develop in northwestern Manitoba late in the day, as a strengthening low pressure system moves into the region from Saskatchewan.  In the sunny south, highs should reach 25-30 degrees,  and in the rainy north, highs will come in around 15-20 degrees.

 

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