Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Slightly cooler, somewhat wetter

Seeding across the prairies is nearly complete, thanks to ideal weather conditions and few rain delays.  And much of the planted crop has already emerged.   The next Alberta crop report comes out May 30, a day after this post is written.   The numbers out of Saskatchewan and Manitoba are impressive.   In Saskatchewan 72 percent of the overall crop has been planted, comparad to just 12 percent at this time last year.  And in Manitoba, the work is almsot done, with 85 percent of the crop in the ground, compared to the long term average of 69 percent.

As the chart below shows, rainfall amounts in Alberta have been close to the long term average, but parts of central Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba could use much more moistire.   The chart shows the percentage of average precipitation from April 1 to May 29.

Thursday

Thursday is the hottest day of the week on the prairies:

The map depicts expected temperatures at 7:00 pm Central, 6:00 Mountain time on Thursday. Highs in the 30s will be widespread in Alberta,  with most locations in Saskatchewan and Manitoba reaching the high 20s.

Alberta

A  change in the weather comes to Alberta late in the day Thursday.   After a scorching hot sunny afternoon, the atmosphere over the foothills becomes unstable as a cold front plows through from west to east.    Spectacular towering clouds should form in the area, kicking off thundershowers in the afternoon north of Sundre.    Through the evening, the area of disturbed weather expands as the front crosses the province, generating showers and storms from the NWT boundary south to Medicine Hat and the Cypress Hills.  Overnight into Friday morning, the chance of showers or non-severe thunderstorms can’t be ruled out along the highway 2 corridor from Edmonton south to the US border.  The area between Lethbridge and the BC boundary may be the only part of Alberta to stay dry through the night.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

Unlike Alberta, there is no change in the weather for Saskatchewan and Manitoba on Thursday.  It’s still sunny, dry, and hot, as shown on the map above.

Friday

Alberta

Thursday night’s showers will end up in Saskatchewan through the morning.   The wet weather will cool the atmosphere, and Friday’s temperatures will be considerably lower than those on Thursday.   It will still be warm, though, as temperatures will reach the low to mid 20s.in the south will reach the high 20s.   The heaviest rain and the greatest chance of thunderstorms will be in the Wood Buffalo region early in the day.  The wet weather will clear out, heading into northern Saskatchewan in the afternoon.

Saskatchewan

Though high 20s are more likely,  there is still a good chance temperatures will climb to the 30s in southeastern Saskatchewan Friday,   In the rest of southern Saskatchewan, highs will reach the the mid twenties.  While rain falls in central and northern Saskatchewan, the agricultural south should remain dry for most of the day.   There is a good possibility that showers will develop late in the day near the Manitoba boundary, close to the town of Hudson Bay.   After developing in the afternoon, these showers would move quickly into Manitoba during the evening.

Manitoba

West of the Red River Valley, high temperatures in southern Manitoba are again expected to climb to the low 30s, with the rest of the province warming to the mid twenties.   Most of Saturday iwll be mainly sunny and dry.   In the early morning, though, clouds and showers will move in from a disturbance in Saskatchewan, and by evening, rain or showers will settle in from Lynn Lake southeast to Winnipeg.   By late morning, the rain fizzles out, and the sky clears, leaving sunshine for most of the day.

Saturday

Alberta

Early Saturday morning, a Low forms northwest of Edmonton near Fox Creek.  Because of this low, rain will first fall along the foothills north of Jasper, moving south in the afternoon to include highway 16 west of Edmonton.  Temperatures in the area will be limited to the low double digits.   Elsewhere in Alberta, it will be dry, and hot.  East of Highway 2 from Edmonton to Montana, highs will reach the low 30s.   To the west, between highway 2 and the foothills expect highs between 25 and 30.  It will stay dry in southern Alberta, but as the day goes on, the Low will move toward the Saskatchewan boundary, and the area of rain will expand into the evening to include most of central Alberta.

Saskatchewan

It will be another dry, warm day in Saskatchewan, until overnight, when disturbed weather comes in from Alberta (see the Sunday forecast).   30 degree high tempeatures are likely in western and west-central Saskatchewan, and the rest of the province can expect to achieve highs between 25 and 30 degrees.

Manitoba

Expect early morning rain across northern Manitoba, and early morning showers in the Winnipeg area.   By midday, the rain will taper off in both areas, to be replaced by bright sunshine.  It will be seasonably warm, with most of the province warming to the low 20s, except for the area south of the Trans Canada Highway, which should reach highs between 25 and 30 degrees.

Sunday

Alberta

Southeastern Alberta should stay dry all day.   The rest of the province, though, will see active weather.   A cold front from a Northwest Territories low will cross the province from the northeast to the southwest.   There will be rain, and maybe thunderstorms along the front, with the rain reinforced by a low in Saskatchewan.   The heaviest rain will fall in the central foothills, with early morning snow! at higher elevations, including the Icefields Parkway.   While this is not agricultural land, there are benefits for farms across the prairies, as moisture over the mountains is reloaded, and will eventually make its way downstream onto the prairies.   The rain over the foothills and central Alberta will continue through the day, briefly reaching as far south as Calgary.  In most areas, highs will come in between 15 and 20, with even cooler conditions in north central Alberta and the foothills.

Saskatchewan

A low in central Saskatchewan, tied into another low in the Northwest Territories, will bring rain to northern Saskatchewan and showers to southern Saskatchewan Sunday.   This will delay whatever seeding is still going on in the area.  Expect the showers to continue over the agricultural south through the day.   By the end of the day, the two lows will merge into one, and heavy rain is expected Sunday night in northern Saskatchewan.  Because of the wet weather, highs of only 15 to 20 degrees are expected.

Manitoba

It will be another dry day in Manitoba’s agricultural regions.   Active weather will develop in northwestern Manitoba late in the day, as a strengthening low pressure system moves into the region from Saskatchewan.  In the sunny south, highs should reach 25-30 degrees,  and in the rainy north, highs will come in around 15-20 degrees.

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