Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Record heat for the eastern Prairies this week. Showers and storms for Alberta.
While the somewhat drier weather of the past week has allowed farmers to catch up a bit on seeding, there’s still a way to go. According to the latest crop reports, seeding in Saskatchewan is 29% complete, compared with the five-year average of 55%. In Manitoba, seeding is 37% complete, compared with the five-year average of 43%. There has been much more progress in Alberta, where seeding is 50.8 percent complete.
Conditions this week will be favourable to continuing the work. An Omega block pattern is developing in the upper atmosphere, and the eastern prairies can expect 30-degree readings later in the week. The most dramatic warmup will be in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Alberta will be warm early in the week, but the risk of scattered showers and storms will persist. Later in the week, expect some cooler weather in Alberta as a trough of low pressure forms on the west coast.
Monday
Peace Region
It will be a clear, but cooler Monday, with daytime highs in the mid to upper teens with a northwesterly flow. The frost risk is minimal overnight, though low-lying areas and fields with bare soil could encounter a light freeze. The delayed spring conditions have left farmers in the Peace region trailing on seeding, but Monday’s drying conditions should allow field work to resume.
Alberta
Overnight low temperatures are a concern, especially in the foothills and northeastern Alberta. Temperatures could drop to 1 or 2 degrees there, which may not be below freezing, but will be worth monitoring, especially if canola has emerged. Otherwise, Monday is a good work day for most of central and southern Alberta. Highs in central regions will reach the low 20s. In the south, temperatures will climb to the 25 to 27 degree range. Note the map in the Saskatchewan segment below. Seeding has progressed well in the south, with 80% complete. The central region is at 58.9%. Those numbers likely climbed even further over the weekend.
Saskatchewan
Monday is an active weather day in Saskatchewan. A low-pressure centre crosses Saskatchewan in the afternoon, with a cold front hanging back toward southern Alberta. A warm front extends into Manitoba. Between the cold front and the warm front is a zone called the warm sector. That’s where temperatures will climb high, but it’s also an area of instability. So… thunderstorms. The area with the greatest risk for storms is fairly widespread – anywhere south of the Yellowhead highway.
The area of greatest risk moves from west to east during the day, so the strongest late-day storms will be near the Manitoba boundary. The storms are expected to carry on into the evening, with wind gusts of 90 km/h or stronger. Hail is possible, but large hail is unlikely. South of the Yellowed highway, temperatures will climb to the high 20s. High teens to low 20s can be expected in the central part of the province.
Manitoba
An organized threat of thunderstorms develops in southern Manitoba along with a warm front extending into the province from a low in Saskatchewan. When the storms develop, wind gusts could reach 90 km/h, and hail is possible. The province made significant progress in seeding last week, despite the dust storm on May 13th and 14th. However, the storms on Monday may halt that momentum for one more day. Temperatures in the southern half of the province should reach the mid-20s.
Tuesday
Peace Region
It’s a quieter day. Lingering morning cloud gives way to partial sunshine in the afternoon, but it will be cool again, with highs only reaching the mid-teens. It will be a good day to get back into the field to continue catching up on seeding. The window for canola seeding in the Peace is narrowing, and every suitable day counts, given how far behind the region sits.
Alberta
Outside of the Peace Region, Tuesday will be a mainly sunny day in Alberta, thanks to high pressure at the surface. This will be reinforced later in the week when high pressure builds in the upper levels as well. It will be warm. South of Highway 16, temperatures will climb to the high 20s, maybe even nudging 30 in places like Medicine Hat and Milk River. North of the Yellowhead, highs will range from the high teens to the mid-20s.
Saskatchewan
A bit of a competition may develop in Saskatchewan on Tuesday to see who gets to 30 degrees first. Place your bets on either Moose Jaw or Estevan. It will be a hot afternoon across southern Saskatchewan.
Tuesday, with a very stable atmosphere and no storm threat. Clouds will be in short supply. The most valuable piece of equipment on Tuesday could very well be the air conditioner in the cab of the tractor.
Manitoba
Manitoba will enjoy a dry, stable, sunny day on Tuesday, perfect for field work from dawn to dusk and beyond. The only risk of any kind of precipitation will be in Whiteshell Provincial Park – well away from any agricultural concerns. Highs in Manitoba’s agricultural regions will vary from 25 to 29 degrees, and the low 30s can’t be ruled out near the US border, especially west of Emerson.
Wednesday
Peace Region
It’ll be a slightly warmer day in the Peace, with temperatures reaching the low 20s. The sky is expected to be sunny, though, which is helpful for field work. The atmosphere will be stable, and by the afternoon, clouds will be absent, and there will be an abundant supply of sunshine.
Alberta
Upper ridging is building in, and most of the province is dry, and with weather like this, many farms could complete their seeding operations this week. It will be rather warm south of Highway 16 and east of Highway 2, with high temperatures ranging from 29 to 33 degrees. West of Highway 2, expect highs in the low 20s. Early in the day, expect rain south of the Trans Canada Highway and north, within 150 km of the Saskatchewan boundary to Fort McMurray. Accumulations in the 3-5 cm range are likely. Most of the rainfall will happen in the morning, tapering off in the afternoon, as the ridge builds in.
Saskatchewan
Rainfall can be expected near the Alberta boundary on Wednesday, with 3-5 mm in most areas. The area of rain will extend about 75 km east of the boundary, and generally dry conditions can be expected elsewhere across Saskatchewan. South of Regina, there is a minor risk of afternoon showers or thundershowers. It will be hot. South of the Yellowed highway, temperatures are expected to rise to the low 30s. The map below shows temperatures expected late in the afternoon on Wednesday.
Manitoba
Another warm, sunny, and dry day for southern Manitoba with highs in the low 30s south of the lakes. Not a drop of rain is expected anywhere in the province on Wednesday, allowing for uninterrupted seeding and field work. The only area with significant cloud cover will be the far north, near the Nunavut boundary. In the south, soil temperatures should finally be reaching germination thresholds for canola.
Thursday
Peace Region
On Thursday, the Peace Region will be warm and sunny, with highs of 23 to 25 degrees. Precipitation is not expected, unless a weak disturbance is allowed to ride over the upper ridge. It’s unlikely, but bears watching. Seeding conditions are favourable.
Alberta
Wet weather returns to southern and central Alberta on Thursday, with temperatures only reaching the 12 to 15-degree range south of the Yellowhead highway. Hot weather remains near the Saskatchewan boundary, where temperatures could again reach 30 degrees. Northern Alberta will be warmer than the south, as temperatures there climb to the mid-20s. The big story, though, is the expected rain. As the map below shows, outdoor work will be disrupted in southern Alberta. Precipitation amounts will be enhanced by an upslope flow in the southwestern foothills. Pincher Creek, Crowsnest, and Waterton can expect 20 mm of rain on Thursday, maybe more.
Areas east of Highway 2 can also expect rain, but in lighter amounts. Most of the rain will fall early in the day, though it will linger through the afternoon from Calgary west toward the foothills and Rockies. Being a few days into the future, the specifics this forecast is apt to change, but the overall pattern is expected to hold.
Saskatchewan
Stifling, hot weather can be expected in Saskatchewan on Thursday, with highs climbing to the 32 to 34-degree range south of the Yellowhead highway. The atmosphere will become quite unstable in the daytime heat, and showers or thunderstorms are likely to break out anywhere in the southern half of the province, but more likely in the area west of Regina. The storms could become severe.
Manitoba
The southern half of Manitoba will, like Saskatchewan, experience a hot day, with temperatures in the 30 to 35 degree range. This is serious heat, and precautions need to be taken while working outdoors. The sky will be sunny, and most of the province is unlikely to get any moisture. That said, some convective showers or storms may erupt in the afternoon in the far southwestern corner of the province. If that happens, the storms would be brief, not severe, and rainfall amounts would be minimal.
Friday
Peace Region
Farmers in the Peace Region will have another ideal seeding day today, with sunshine and temperatures in the high teens or low 20s. The main concern remains getting soil temperatures up, and highs today may not make a whole lot of difference. However, some areas of the Peace may be crossing germination thresholds for cereals and canola.
Alberta
By early next week, a developing low-pressure system expected to move into southern Alberta could bring showers and scattered thundershowers to the southern and southwestern parts of the province. Friday may bring the leading edge of that activity to the extreme south, but the province is still in the warm window throughout most of the day. Highs reach the mid to upper 20s. In the south, farmers should complete critical work by midday, as clouds, showers, and thundershowers become possible by evening.
Saskatchewan
The string of blazing hot days continues in Saskatchewan, with highs in the 30 to 35-degree range over the southern half of the province. And, like Thursday, the heat is likely to generate showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, some of which may be severe. Monitor Environment Canada for watches and warnings, and complete field work early in the day before the weather becomes active.
Manitoba
Isolated afternoon showers and storms are possible in southern Manitoba, especially west of Portage La Prairie. The active weather will be fuelled by heat, as temperatures across southern Manitoba climb to the low 30s. There is a chance that one or two of the storms will become severe, though it is not yet possible to be specific as to the exact location.
Saturday and Sunday
Peace Region
The upper ridge that has been building over western Canada will be well established by the weekend, and conditions will remain settled, with dry weather and highs reaching the high 20s on Saturday and the mid 20s on Sunday. Producers who were still behind last week have a genuine opportunity to close the gap on this last weekend of the month.
Alberta
Most areas of Alberta stay warm and largely dry on Saturday, but there is a risk of showers across central and northern areas as a small low tracks through. Highs will reach the mid to upper 20s. A transition to cooler weather may begin Sunday as an upper low to the west pushes the heat-producing ridge further east.
Saskatchewan
A blocking high-pressure system maintains the hot weather for Saskatchewan through the weekend. There is a chance of higher humidity creating humidex values close to 40 degrees. This weekend will likely be the hottest for Saskatchewan and for all of Canada, so far this year. And, of course, this kind of heat in Saskatchewan always brings the chance of afternoon showers, storms, and potentially severe weather.
Manitoba
Most of Manitoba stays dry on the weekend, but there is a risk of showers and storms along the Trans Canada Highway on Saturday. Sunday should stay dry. Other than the Saturday showers, the province will be sunny through the weekend with highs both days in the high 20s.
EVENT FORECASTS
Bergen and Cowboy Trail Snow and Sale, May 25, Sundre Rodeo Grounds, Sundre, AB
May 25: Mainly sunny, light wind, high 23
Dash to Summer Races, May 29-31, Vegreville, AB
May 29: Mainly sunny, light to moderate wind, high 26
May 30: Cloudy, chance of showers, brisk northwest wind, high 20
May 31: Morning showers, afternoon clearing, light wind, high 20
