Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Showers and storms continue through the weekend, with periods of hot weather.
The overall weather pattern remains active across the Prairies through the weekend. A series of weak upper-level disturbances moving out of British Columbia will interact with warm, humid air already in place, producing repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms. While widespread severe weather appears less likely than earlier this month, some storms, particularly in Alberta, could still produce large hail, damaging wind gusts, torrential rain, and localized flooding.
The northern Prairies continue to experience significant heat, and wildfire smoke will continue to affect portions of northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba at times, with air quality varying depending on wind direction.
For agriculture, the outlook is generally favourable for crop development thanks to continued warmth and periodic moisture. However, producers should be prepared for interruptions to haying, spraying and harvesting of early crops as thunderstorms develop almost daily.
Thursday
Peace Region
Hot weather continues across the Peace with afternoon highs reaching the upper 20s and low 30s. Most of the day will be sunny and should remain dry; however, isolated thunderstorms are possible later in the afternoon and evening, but the chance is minimal. If the storms do develop, they are not expected to become severe, and should not produce meaningful rainfall. While the heat will be healthy for crop growth, heat stress will continue for livestock.
Alberta
Southern and central Alberta face the greatest risk of strong thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The atmosphere will be very unstable with abundant moisture and strong upper-level winds capable of supporting organized severe storms. Large hail, damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall are all possible, especially from the foothills eastward through central Alberta. The map below shows significant storm energy in the late afternoon:
While the map suggests the strongest storms could occur just northeast of Calgary, we’ll have to see how the day plays out. It’s safe to say there will be storms, but due to their random nature, it’s not possible to predict exact locations or severity.
Excellent growing conditions continue, but producers should complete spraying and haying early. Localized hail could damage cereals, canola and pulse crops.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly common across Saskatchewan and Manitoba today. Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon and evening across much of Saskatchewan, with the greatest rainfall potential in east-central and southeastern regions, while morning showers in Manitoba give way to another round of afternoon and evening storms, especially across southern and western areas. The map below shows where the storm energy is expected late in the afternoon, and the strongest storms are likely to be in southern Manitoba between the Trans Canada highway and the US border:
Warm, humid conditions will persist across the southern Prairies, while wildfire smoke may continue to affect air quality in parts of northern Manitoba. For agriculture, the rainfall will generally benefit crop development and continue improving soil moisture reserves, although localized heavy downpours may delay field work, narrow spraying windows, and reduce hay quality where heavier rainfall occurs. Afternoon temperatures will peak in the mid-20s in Saskatchewan, and the low-20s in southern Manitoba.
Friday
Peace Region
Another warm summer day with increasing cloud during the afternoon, and highs in the low 30s. Isolated thunderstorms develop late in the day. The thunderstorms are not expected to become severe, but small hail can’t be ruled out. Before the afternoon storms, there should be several hours with good conditions for field operations.
Alberta
Another upper disturbance crosses the province, producing more widespread thunderstorms than Thursday. While the severe weather threat is somewhat lower, locally heavy rain and gusty winds remain possible. And, of course, hail is possible, though if it occurs, it will likely be small. Temperatures climb into the mid 20s across much of southern Alberta, while northern Alberta remains hot, with highs in the low to mid 30s. Moisture will benefit crops, but localized flooding could temporarily delay machinery in some fields.
Saskatchewan
Morning showers affect northern Saskatchewan before conditions improve briefly. Thunderstorms redevelop during the afternoon and evening across much of the province. Southern areas remain warm and humid with temperatures approaching 30 in the southwest. While isolated afternoon storms are possible in the south, the overall weather pattern tends toward sunny, dry conditions. Don’t cancel any plans for afternoon work, but keep an eye on the sky and don’t be surprised if small storms develop quickly.
Manitoba
Morning rain exits southern Manitoba before scattered afternoon thunderstorms redevelop. Warm, humid conditions continue across agricultural regions. Afternoon highs will reach the mid 20s. Most areas will get less than 10 mm of rain, though some isolated areas will get between 10-15 mm if they are directly beneath the afternoon storms. Moisture remains favourable for corn, soybeans and canola, although producers should expect periodic interruptions to field work.
Saturday
Peace Region
Expect a significant weather change for the Peace Region as the weekend begins. Saturday will likely be rainy, and much cooler, with highs in the low 20s at best. Rainfall amounts will vary widely across the region. In the BC Peace, expect less than 10 mm. On the Alberta side, rainfall could reach as high as 20 mm. Weak thunderstorms are possible, especially in the northern Peace, but for most, it will be a non-severe rain event. This is likely going to be a day to stay inside
Alberta
Saturday may produce the most active weather of the weekend. A fresh upper disturbance moving into Alberta combines with very warm, unstable air to generate scattered thunderstorms, some becoming strong to severe. Large hail, damaging winds and heavy rainfall remain possible, especially across central and southern Alberta, east of Highway 2. Northern Alberta finally cools a bit, with highs in the 20s, with a chance of rain and thunderstorms. Between Calgary and Edmonton, west of Highway 2, it’s expected to remain dry. Highs across southern Alberta will reach the high 20s. Plan outdoor operations for the morning whenever possible. Hail remains the primary agricultural concern for Saturday.
Saskatchewan
Warm temperatures continue with highs in the mid to high 20s across the province. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms will develop across much of the province. Southwestern Saskatchewan experiences hot and humid conditions, and some towns in that region could see highs over 30, with the humidex in the mid-30s. Rainfall amounts in excess of 10 mm are possible along the Alberta boundary just south of Lloydminster. Elsewhere, rain totals will be minimal. Crops continue to benefit from warmth and scattered rainfall, but localized heavy rain could create uneven field conditions.
Manitoba
The day begins with sunshine across the province, but some cloud can be expected in the afternoon as a system to the west begins to move toward Manitoba. The atmosphere will stay rather stable, so severe weather won’t happen. That said, there is always the chance of a few pop-up showers or non-severe thundershowers. Temperatures will reach the high 20s in the afternoon.
Sunday
Peace Region
Clouds increase with scattered showers developing, particularly later in the day as another disturbance approaches northwestern Alberta. Temperatures remain in the high teens and low 20s. Field operations remain possible early before rain develops.
Alberta
Morning showers affect northern central Alberta. As the day goes on, northern regions dry out, but thunderstorms become more widespread in central Alberta along the Yellowhead Highway during the afternoon. Some storms across central Alberta may become strong, producing heavy rain, hail and gusty winds. Southeastern Alberta remains fairly hot with temperatures reaching the high 20s. Elsewhere, expect temperatures in the low 20s during the afternoon, while gusty westerly winds increase along the foothills and Crowsnest Pass. Expect another interrupted field-work day.
Saskatchewan
Another active thunderstorm day develops as Alberta’s disturbance tracks east. Central Saskatchewan faces the greatest potential for stronger storms, along the Yellowhead corridor, while northern and southern Saskatchewan will warm to the mid to high 20s. The storms will limit temperatures to the high teens in central Saskatchewan, where up to 15 mm of rain is possible. And while the storms could be strong, they may remain below severe criteria. The new colour-coded warning system includes watches and warnings based on impact, rather than meteorological severity.
Manitoba
Thunderstorms spread into much of Manitoba during the afternoon, with central and northern regions becoming increasingly active. Southern Manitoba remains warm and humid while northern Manitoba experiences another hot day. Storms that develop over the interlake in the afternoon will drift southward during the evening. There will be plenty of energy to fuel the storms, so severe weather is possible. Highs will reach the high 20s or low 30s. Rainfall continues to support crop development, although repeated showers may delay hay drying and increase disease pressure
Compare:
Prairie Weather This Week – July 13
EVENT FORECAST
Summer Tractor Pull, July 18-19, Pioneer Acres Museum, Irricana AB
July 18 – Mainly sunny, humid, high 28
July 19 – Sunny, high 23
