Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Weekend weather outlook; Updated Canadian Drought Monitor.
Canadian Drought Monitor
Rainfall and intense storms through August, had a huge impact on drought conditions in southern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan. Much of those areas are no longer considered to be3 in drought. By contrast, drought conditions remain in the northern half of those two provinces, and in nearly all of Manitoba.
Alberta: August rainfall varied widely, with central and eastern areas receiving over 150% of normal precipitation due to thunderstorms. Southeastern Alberta saw major drought relief, improving soil moisture and water supplies. However, the Peace Region remained severely affected, with livestock relocations and grasshopper infestations worsening conditions. Extreme Drought (D3) slightly expanded northward.
Saskatchewan: Southwest Saskatchewan received over 200% of normal rainfall, significantly easing drought in many areas. A major storm early in the month brought heavy rain across central regions. The rainfall brought improvements in pasture and feed supplies, however crop losses due to dry weather earlier in the summer were largely irreversible. Central and northern areas still face persistent drought, with some expansion in the northeast due to long-term deficits.
Manitoba: Most of the province saw near to above-normal precipitation, especially west of Winnipeg, which recorded over 200% of normal rainfall. Southern and central Manitoba experienced reductions in drought severity, though lingering impacts like poor forage and limited water remain. Northern Manitoba also saw improvements, but pockets of Extreme Drought (D3) persist.
By the end of August, 78% of the Prairie Region remained classified as Abnormally Dry (D0) or in Moderate to Extreme Drought (D1–D3), affecting 59% of agricultural land. Nationally, 71 percent of Canada is classified as abnormally dry or in drought, including 70% of agricultural land.
The weather is changing, and endless days of dry weather and sunshine are coming to an end. Alberta will enjoy terrific harvest weather through weekend, and conditions will improve in Saskatchewan and Manitoba:
Alberta farmers will enjoy excellent harvest progress this weekend. Saskatchewan and Manitoba farmers face short term delays due to storms and localized flooding Thursday and Friday. With the sky clearing toward the weekend, overnight lows will have to be monitored for a risk of frost.
Thursday
Alberta
Simple and straightforward is the Thursday outlook in Alberta. Sunshine prevails, the wind will be light, and it will be mild with afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 20s across the province.
Saskatchewan
Thursday is a day of thunderstorms across the southern half of Saskatchewan, with the biggest impact south of the Trans Canada Highway. Some of the storms will become severe, with the risk of damaging hail. The storms will intensify through the afternoon and evening. There is the potential for local accumulations of 30 to 50 mm of rain, with localized flooding. The rain is associated with a strengthening Low pressure system headed toward northwestern North Dakota. The system may contain a lot of moisture, but it’s also quite a warm air mass, and despite the rain, temperatures in southern Saskatchewan should reach the high 20s. To the north, it will be cooler, with highs in the low 20s.
Manitoba
The harvest in southern Manitoba will be interrupted, as rain showers and storms move in from Saskatchewan, and cross agricultural regions from west to east. The storms will intensify through the afternoon, and by evening, severe storms could impact southern Manitoba, west of Portage La Prairie. Expect strong wind. It will be cool, with highs from 13-18 degrees.
Friday
Alberta
It will be another mainly dry day across the province, though there is a chance of scattered afternoon showers in the Drumheller/Brooks/Vulcan/Barons area, and a risk of scattered afternoon showers or thunderstorms over the foothills. The wet weather is partially due to a surface wind from the southeast, causing an upslope flow. Temperatures in eastern Alberta, from the Northwest Territories to Montana, should reach the mid to high 20s. In western Alberta, expect highs in the low to mid 20s.
Saskatchewan
Another round of storms is expected in central and southern Saskatchewan on Friday. Rainfall amounts won’t be as intense as Thursday, but due to nearly saturated ground, localized flooding is possible. Southwestern Saskatchewan could warm to the mid 20s, but the rest of the province will be cooler, with highs in the teens.
Manitoba
Morning storms in southern Manitoba will weaken, and there may be some partial clearing in the afternoon. It will be cool in the afternoon due to a northerly flow. Highs will only reach 11-16.
Saturday
Alberta
It will be yet another sunny, warm, and stable day in Alberta, with a light wind from the south. And much of the province will warm to the high 20s in the afternoon. Low 20s are anticipated for the foothills and higher terrain. The harvest will continue uninterrupted by weather on Saturday, and for those enjoying some time off…a great late summer weekend for any an all outdoor pursuits.
Saskatchewan
Rain continues in southeastern Saskatchewan, while the sky clears elsewhere. What could be a major storm moves into the Estevan – Moosomin region from the US. Intense rainfall is expected in the afternoon, with the possibility of severe weather, including lightning and hail. The storm will stall over southeast Saskatchewan during the day, before moving northward overnight toward Yorkton. Because of that rain and potentially severe weather, southeastern Saskatchewan can expect high temperatures in the high teens. To the west, it should warm to the mid 20s.
Manitoba
A storm pulling northward into southeastern Saskatchewan will spread rain into southwestern Manitoba. Rainfall amounts should be light. The sky will clear elsewhere in the province. High temperatures will be highly dependent on how early the sun emerges. Areas with sunshine by early afternoon could reach the low 20s. Where the sun doesn’t appear until later in the day, highs could be limited to the high teens.
Sunday
Alberta
The window of excellent harvest weather remains wide open in Alberta. This, though could be the last day for an uninterrupted harvest. A Low pressure system will develop over Alberta Sunday. The rain, though, will hold off until Monday morning, when it will become widespread across the province. In the sunny, dry weather Sunday, temperatures will reach the mid 20s aross the province, and it may be even warmer in southeastern Alberta and the Peace Region.
Saskatchewan
Central Saskatchewan can expect wet weather, as the system that brought rain to the south on Saturday moves north, parking itself near Saskatoon. The heaviest rain will be to the north of the Low, but showers will linger at least into the early afternoon in south central regions. With the rain moving north, it will cool down in central and northern Saskatchewan, with highs below 20 degrees. In the south, as the rain leaves, slightly warmer air will move in, and we may see highs in the low to mid 20s.
Manitoba
Better harvest conditions finally return to southern Manitoba, though rain showers may linger in the Red River Valley. With the clearing sky, highs in southern Manitoba. will reach the high 20s, pushing 30. It will be only slightly cooler in areas where the rain has not completely ended. To the north, expect highs in the low to mid 20s.
