Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Finally…a break!  Several days of warmer drier weather…..but is it too late?

After weeks of cool, rainy weather that has hammered harvest progress across the Prairies, a genuine break arrives this week. A departing low over northwestern Ontario pulls the last of the unsettled weather out of the eastern Prairies, while a broad ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. That ridge takes hold over Alberta first, then expands into Saskatchewan and Manitoba by the weekend, bringing several days of sunshine and daytime highs climbing into the low 20s, with some areas potentially reaching the mid-20s, particularly in Saskatchewan.

Harvest remains well behind normal in Alberta and Saskatchewan, though Manitoba has made strong headway. Alberta sits at 21 per cent complete, 23 points behind the five-year average, with the Peace Region at 8 per cent, well behind its typical pace for this point in September. Saskatchewan is at 27 per cent, still far off the 58 per cent five-year average, with fields left saturated after last week’s heavy rain. Manitoba has climbed to 40 per cent complete, up 12 points, but that progress has come with real quality costs: sprouting and downgrading are now showing up in recently harvested grain, and canola lodging tied to disease continues to complicate what’s left standing.

With the end of the active summer weather season, this outlook is quite straightforward, and for a change, positive.  Warm, dry, and with less of an overnight frost risk, at least for the next few days.

Thursday

Peace Region

At this time of year, a clear sky often brings frost overnight.  Not this time.  Temperatures will stay comfortably above the freezing point, and frost is not a concern. As a high pressure ridge builds in, expect sunshine Thursday with highs in the high tees or low 20s.  With no active weather, this will be a good day to make progress on the harvest, which, as noted above, is running well behind average.

Alberta

Sunshine dominates as a broad area of high pressure takes over and strengthens. Highs run 19 to 23 across the province, with overnight lows in the 6 to 7 range.  With dry, sunny weather, and no wind concerns, Thursday is a good day for fieldwork province-wide.

Saskatchewan

Skies continue clearing as high pressure builds in from the west, with highs in the mid teens to low 20s and overnight lows well above zero, comfortably above any frost concern. This is a solid day to keep combines moving after last week’s disruptions. The map below shows low temperatures Thursday night/Friday morning, and as you can see, there is no frost risk whatsoever:

Manitoba

Referring to the map above, there is no frost risk for Manitoba anticipated Thursday night/Friday morning. Decreasing cloud and increasing sunshine continue spread eastward through the province, with highs in the upper teens to low 20s. With sprouting already a concern in some fields, use this drier stretch to prioritize grain that’s most at risk of further quality loss.

Friday

Peace Region

Continued solid sunshine with highs climbing into the upper teens to low 20s. And with lows in the 4 to 6 degree range, frost will continue to be a non-issue here as the ridge strengthens.

Alberta

A relatively quiet, mainly sunny day with light winds, and highs in the upper teens to low 20s. During the afternoon, a disturbance in Montana may push some cloud into the far southeastern corner of the province, but otherwise, the Alberta sky will remain clear throughout the day. Overnight lows run 6 to 8. Temperatures should begin climbing further as the ridge of high pressure strengthens to the west ahead of the weekend.

Saskatchewan

Plenty of sunshine and light winds for most of Saskatchewan Friday, with highs in the low 20s and overnight lows near 7, no frost concern.  However, cloud will develop south of the Trans Canada Highway Friday, and as the map below shows, rain is possible yet again in parts of southeastern Saskatchewan:

Temperatures should keep climbing into the weekend as the ridge builds in more strongly.

Manitoba

Just what Manitoba producers don’t need – more rain! A disturbance will move toward the Manitoba/Saskatchewan/North Dakota border early Friday morning and cross southern Manitoba during the day. As the map above shows, there will be rain, with less than 10 mm accumulation. In this area, one drop is too many, and with fields already saturated, there is potential for standing water to develop even with this minimal amount of rain. Temperatures across the province will reach the high teens, with the potential of a 20 degree high near Brandon.

Saturday and Sunday

Peace Region

The ridge that started over Alberta earlier in the week continues to strengthen through the weekend, bringing more sunshine and mild temperatures. Highs should reach the upper teens to low 20s both days, with overnight lows holding well above freezing and no frost risk expected.

Alberta

Saturday brings another stretch of mainly sunny weather as the upper-level ridge builds more strongly across the province, with highs climbing into the low 20s. Southern and southeastern Alberta could reach the mid-20s if the ridge strengthens as currently expected. Sunday stays generally dry as the ridge gradually shifts eastward, though clouds may begin increasing in northwestern Alberta later in the day as the next system approaches for early next week. Overnight lows both nights run comfortably in the high single digits, with no frost risk.

Saskatchewan

Saturday brings a period of very pleasant early-fall weather as the ridge builds across the province, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 20s, some areas possibly pushing into the mid-20s where skies stay clearest and winds stay light. The ridge continues expanding eastward Sunday, keeping Saskatchewan mainly sunny and warm with similar highs. Overnight lows stay mild both nights, with frost off the table.

Manitoba

Saturday could bring some cloud and an odd scattered shower as a low pressure system tracks well to the south of the province, but conditions should stay mostly favourable. By Sunday, Manitoba moves into the warmer air on the eastern side of the building ridge, with highs generally in the low 20s. Overnight lows stay mild through the weekend, and frost is not expected. Given the sprouting and lodging issues already on the books, this stretch of dry, sunny weather is a genuine opportunity to make up lost ground.

Bigger picture

This is the first extended dry, sunny stretch the Prairies have seen in weeks, and it comes at a critical moment. Rain over the past 60 days has left fields waterlogged from Boissevain to North Battleford, and grain quality is now paying the price alongside the delays themselves, with sprouting and downgrading showing up in Manitoba’s recent harvest. With the average end date for prairie harvest sitting in mid-to-late October, this window matters.

EVENT FORECASTS

Cherry Grove Fall Fair,  September 19,  Cherry Grove, AB

September 19 – Sunny, breezy, high 21

Kindersley Goose Festival,  September  17-20, Kindersley, SK

September 17 –  Sunny, wind gusts to 25 km/h, high 21

September 18 – Sunny,  wind gusts to 20 km/h, high 24

September 19 – Sunny with a few evening clouds, high 22

September 20 – Morning cloud, afternoon sun, high 23

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