Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Yet more rain to interrupt the harvest. Later in the week – a break! You might think summer has returned.
A significant low-pressure system moves into the Prairies to start the week, bringing widespread heavy showers, embedded thunderstorms and gusty winds to southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba before tracking into Ontario and Quebec by Tuesday. Most of the accumulated rain you see on the map below will occur in the early week, returning to southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba on the weekend. In Alberta, virtually all of the rain shown on the map will fall Monday and Tuesday, with drier, sunnier, and warmer weather returning mid-week.
Courtesy: MSC AniMet
After the early-week rain, an upper ridge builds in from the Pacific and holds through much of the week, bringing a stretch of sunny, mild weather. This will offer the best harvest window we have seen in a while. A few smaller disturbances interrupt that stretch, particularly for the Manitoba Interlake midweek, before the pattern turns active again for Alberta and the Peace Region by next weekend.
Overnight lows stay a few degrees above freezing through most of this week, so widespread frost isn’t yet a major concern. The closest call comes Monday and Tuesday nights across the Peace Region and northern Alberta, where lows dip to around 2 C. That’s not cold enough to trigger a frost advisory on its own, but close enough that low-lying or exposed fields in those areas could see patchy ground frost. Elsewhere, overnight lows hold comfortably in the mid-single digits to upper single digits, which should keep frost off the table.
Harvest remains well behind normal everywhere, though all three provinces made real progress over the past week. Alberta climbed to 18 percent complete, up eight points, but still trails the five-year average of 40 percent, with the Peace Region at 8 percent and the North East and North West both at 6 percent. Saskatchewan reached 27 percent, up from 18 percent, although that’s still well behind the 58 percent five-year average, and large rainfall totals over the past week, including 138 mm in the RM of Longlaketon, have left many fields saturated. Manitoba made the biggest jump, up 17 points to 28 percent, but the rain that drove that progress also brought lodging, crop disease, and the first reports of sprouting in grain that’s been sitting wet in the field.
Monday
Peace Region
The Peace Region will be quieter Monday than regions to the south and north. It will rain in those areas, but in the Peace, we can expect clouds to build through the afternoon. If there is any rain, it would be in the form of a few showers, unlike the soaking rains expected elsewhere. Highs run 12 to 14, with overnight lows near 2, cool enough that patchy ground frost is possible in low-lying or exposed fields. This region isn’t in the path of the main weather system, so use the relatively calm conditions to keep moving on harvest where fields allow.
Alberta
Periods of rain move through the province, with highs in the mid-teens and overnight lows in the 4 to 7 range. This isn’t a heavy rain day for Alberta compared with what’s hitting the eastern prairies, but it’s enough to keep combines parked in affected areas. Gusty winds continue behind the system into the afternoon. Frost risk is low tonight given the cloud cover, though northern areas closer to the Peace Region should stay alert.
Saskatchewan
With a strong low-pressure system moving in from Montana, this will be a day of major rainfall in southern Saskatchewan. Heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected across much of southern Saskatchewan. Expect 15 to 25 mm of rain, with localized higher amounts under stronger convection, along with wind gusts of 60 to 70 km/h through the afternoon and evening. Runoff is a real concern in the southeast given how saturated fields already are. Highs reach only 10 to 14, a sharp drop from recent days, with overnight lows near 6. Keep equipment out of low areas and watch for washouts if you need to move anything.
Manitoba
A low moving in from the US (same one described in the Saskatchewan paragraph above) delivers heavy showers and a risk of afternoon thunderstorms to southern Manitoba, with 15 to 25 mm expected and wind gusts climbing from 50 km/h to 60 km/h late in the afternoon. Runoff threatens the southwest and the Interlake in particular. Highs reach around 13, with an overnight low near 6. With sprouting already showing up in grain that’s been wet too long, this system adds real risk to standing crop in the hardest-hit areas.
The map below shows rainfall amounts expected Monday in southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba:
Tuesday
Peace Region
A good, mild day with sunshine, and no significant weather concerns. Highs reach the mid-teens, with an overnight low near 2, again cool enough to warrant a quick check of low-lying fields before frost becomes a real concern later in the week. This is a solid window for fieldwork before the pattern shifts again.
Alberta
Cooler, cloudier conditions linger in the south with a chance of showers, while central Alberta fares better with more sunshine. Highs range from 10 to 16 in the sun of central Alberta, while in the south, the clouds and showers will keep temperatures well below average. Highs of only 8 to 11 degrees are expected, with overnight lows in the 4 to 6 range. Rain also continues to affect the Alberta foothills into the afternoon with an upslope flow around a developing surface high in southern Alberta.
Saskatchewan
The low finally exits into Ontario, with some precipitation hanging back into Manitoba. In Saskatchewan, though, the sky clears out. Expect a mix of sun and cloud with highs between 12 and 14, and overnight lows near 6. Fields will need time to firm up after yesterday’s rain, but this is the start of a much better stretch.
Manitoba
The wet, windy low-pressure system clears out and moves into Ontario, but it leaves residual moisture behind for the morning. The sky clears, and by afternoon, most areas will be sunny and pleasant with highs in the mid teens and an overnight low around 6. Wind threats linger into the morning as the system fully clears, but conditions improve steadily through the day. This is your first real chance to assess lodging and standing water from Monday’s system. It may take quite some time, though, for the fields to be workable again.
Wednesday
Peace Region
Abundant sunshine is expected in the Peace on Wednesday, and it will feel like summer again as highs reach the 18 to 21 degree range. At this time of year, a clear overnight sky can often mean frost, but that is very unlikely Wednesday, with lows bottoming out in the mid-single digits. It will be a strong day for harvest progress across the region.
Alberta
Sunny skies return across the province, with highs generally in the 17 to 19 range, and overnight lows near 6 to 8. This looks like one of the better days of the outlook period for Alberta producers to make up lost ground, as no significant weather is expected.
Saskatchewan
Mostly sunny with highs ranging from 15 to 17, though a rain threat develops later in the day for southern Saskatchewan as a smaller disturbance moves through. This will affect areas south of the Trans Canada Highway. It’s not a lot of rain, about 5 mm, but given the conditions on the fields in the area, even one drop is too much in many areas. Overnight lows hold near 4 to 5. Get your priority fields done early if you’re in an affected area. The image below was captured Sunday afternoon near Melville. It’s hard to tell for sure from the photo, but this crop looks like it might be ready, so a stretch of warm, dry weather would be most welcome.
Manitoba
Rain returns to Manitoba Wednesday, amounts shown in the map below:
Due to the wet weather, highs will be limited to the 10 to 14 degree range. Overnight lows will stay mild near 8. This is a more localized, less intense system than Monday’s, but it’s still enough to interrupt fieldwork in the province.
Thursday
Peace Region, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba
Aside from a brief thunderstorm threat for central Manitoba Thursday morning, western Canada will have a sunny day from the Pacific Ocean all the way to Lake Superior. A lack of significant weather should provide plenty of opportunities to resume the harvest in areas where the ground is suitable. Across the prairies, highs will reach the 18 to 21 degree range, and in the Peace Region, expect afternoon temperatures to peak between 17 and 20 degrees, only slightly cooler.
Friday
Peace Region, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba
Friday’s weather will be very similar across the entirety of Western Canada. Sunshine, no significant weather, and highs in the low 20s. Two dry days in a row will open up some opportunities for farmers whose fields are dry enough for heavy equipment. Take advantage of those opportunities, especially if you’re in Saskatchewan… change is coming!
Saturday and Sunday
Peace Region
Saturday looks quiet, with highs likely in the upper teens to low 20s and mild overnight lows, keeping frost off the table. Sunday brings a shift: a thunderstorm threat develops both in the morning and afternoon as unstable conditions return to the Peace Region. Keep an eye on the sky Sunday, especially if you’re finishing up fieldwork that morning.
Alberta
Saturday should stay calm, with highs near 22 under a mix of sun and cloud and mild overnight lows posing no frost risk. Sunday turns more active, with a thunderstorm threat developing across southwestern Alberta and the foothills through both the morning and afternoon. The storms are expected to be isolated and non-severe, and east of Highway 22, there won’t be much of a threat at all. Check back here for the midweek update Thursday; we’ll have better information and will provide an update.
Saskatchewan
A quiet Saturday is likely, with a rain threat developing later in the day for southwestern Manitoba that could clip the Saskatchewan side of the border. Active weather is likely to develop on Sunday, as a front attached to a low in Nunavut drags showers across the province. The showers will pass through quickly, but the rain should be of such intensity as to yet again interrupt the harvest. Overnight lows through the weekend should stay mild enough to keep frost risk low.
Manitoba
Saturday is rather quiet, but Sunday brings a rain threat to southwestern Manitoba in the morning, extending across the southern part of the province in the afternoon, worth watching if you’re in that corridor, with highs holding in the high teens. Overnight lows should stay mild enough that frost isn’t a concern.
The map below shows the rainfall expected Saturday and Sunday for Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
EVENT FORECASTS
Art of the Harvest – September 19, Airdrie, AB
September 19 – Mainly sunny, high 23
Food Farm – September 17, Yorkton, SK
September 17 – Sunny, high 18
25th Perennial Harvest Moon Festival – September 18-20, Clearwater, MB
September 18 – Partly cloudy, high 21
September 19 – Mainly sunny, high 18
September 20 – Showers or rain, high 18
Field to Fork – September 18, Russell, MB
September 18 – Sunny, high 21
Discover Agriculture on the Farm – September 20, Glenlea, MB
September 20 – Cloudy, showers, high 19
Pumpkinfest – September 19, Teulon, MB
September 19 – Sunny, high 18
LISTEN: Prairie Harvest Stalls as Wet Weather Keeps Combines Out of Fields
