Prairie Weather This Week

Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Warm, dry weather continues, ideal for fast-paced harvesting!

Across the prairies, harvest is well underway, after a slow start due to cool, wet weather. Sunshine and dry conditions over the past week have accelerated the harvest, and the same kind of weather is expected this week.

RRC soundbites · RRC Farm Weather Reports – September 2

According to the Alberta Crop Report, as of August 26, 11% of crops are harvested, slightly behind the 5-year average of 15%. Fall-seeded crops are nearly done, peas are about half harvested, and canola swathing has begun. Soil moisture remains adequate, though trending lower with recent warm weather.

The Saskatchewan crop report says harvest progress reached 12% (behind the 5-year average of ~20%). The southwest is most advanced (23% complete), while the north is only beginning.

And, according to the Manitoba crop report, 10% of the harvest has been completed, delayed by heavy localized rainfall. Most of what has been harvested so far include winter wheat and fall rye, which is 85% complete. The pace is, obviously, moving faster in areas where there has been little rain, such as the interlake.

With the possible exception of Monday, Sept 1, the weather this week will be favourable for a faster pace of harvesting, giving those left behind a chance to catch up.

As you can see from the map below, even those areas that do get rain this week won’t get much. The map shows total rainfall up to early evening Sunday August 8:

East of the foothills, no rain is expected this week in southern Alberta, and that area of dry weather stretches east toward Moose Jaw. There will be more rain in southeastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, but in most of the agricultural areas, the rainfall will be minimal. Much of it may come in the form of drizzle, which may have only a minimal impact on harvesting operations.

This chart shows weather risks for this week’s harvest across the prairies:

Monday

Alberta

A cold front sweeps across the northern half of the province, from northwest to southeast. The front will bring cloud and a northwest wind to central and northern Alberta, with the possibility of light rain or drizzle near Fort McMurray. South of Edmonton, sunshine prevails, and thunderstorms are possible over the foothills in the late afternoon between Highways 1 and 3. Highs in the north will range from 18 to 24 degrees, with temperatures reaching the high 20s and low 30s in the south.

Saskatchewan

Despite the passage of a cold front from the north, most of Saskatchewan will stay dry. The eastern side of the province, though, could see showers and storms as the front passes, with most of that activity in the late afternoon and within 100 km of the Manitoba boundary, Elsewhere, expect a mix of sun and cloud across central and southern Saskatchewan. High temperatures will reach the high teens and low 20s in the northern half of the province, and the high 20s in the south.

Manitoba

The cold front that sweeps across the prairies Monday will have its greatest effect in Manitoba. During the day, as the front passes, expect organized rain and drizzle, with embedded thunderstorms in the south and eastern portions of the province. After the front passes, cooler air will rush in later in the day. Before that happens, it will be warm, with highs of 18-23 degrees in the north, and 22 to 27 degrees in southern Manitoba. Due to the wet weather, harvest operations are likely to be delayed across much of the province. And, of course, this will be a setback for the drying of crops.

Tuesday

Alberta

Behind Monday’s cold front, a ridge of high pressure builds, giving sunshine to most of the province. A weak Low pressure system, however, will develop just north of Maple Creek, Saskatchewan. That will spread rain showers back into southeastern Alberta, into the Medicine Hat area and perhaps all the way west to Brooks during the morning. Those showers will move southeast and should be out of the province in the late afternoon.

There is again a slight risk of some thundershowers developing over the foothills in the late afternoon. Areas south of the Trans Canada highway, and in the Grande Prairie/Peace Region can expect highs in the mid to high 20s, while the rest of the province will reach the high teens to low 20s.

Saskatchewan

A weak Low north of Maple Creek will provide showers to southwestern Saskatchewan during the morning and midday. The showers will be light, and lighten up even further in the afternoon. Another disturbance will provide rain to northeastern Saskatchewan, away from agricultural areas. Otherwise most of the province will be mainly sunny, but a northerly wind will limit high temperatures to range between the mid teens and the mid 20s.

Manitoba

Lingering showers from the earlier frontal passage will continue in the morning, especially in the interlake. The showers will taper off as they move southeast. The sky will clear, but a north wind will persist, and Manitoba will have a cool day. Highs will be in the high teens in southern Manitoba. North of the lakes, highs will range from 5 to 12 degrees. It will feel like fall.

Wednesday

Alberta and Saskatchewan

Under the influence of high pressure, both provinces will be sunny and warm. It will be dry enough for an accelerated harvest, and warm enough for rapid drying, especially in Alberta. However, colder air begins to show up in the early morning hours. In Saskatchewan, between Saskatoon and Yorkton, lows of 0 to 5 are possible Wednesday morning. No frost risk, but close. Afternoon temperatures in Saskatchewan will rebound, climbing to the high teens and low 20s. Meantime, in Alberta, there will be a return to hot weather in the Peace Region, with highs exceeding 30 degrees. The rest of the province can expect to reach the high 20s.

Manitoba

A high pressure system in northern Saskatchewan will eventually bring sunshine back to Manitoba. But in the morning, moisture from Hudson Bay is drawn into southern Manitoba, along the east side of that high. Showers will continue though southern Manitoba until the afternoon, when the rain moves out, to be replaced by sunshine. Because of that northeasterly flow, we’ll have a cool day in Manitoba Wednesday. From the Red River Valley west, highs will only reach the low teens, and it will be even cooler east of Lake Winnipeg.

The rating of excellent harvest conditions in the chart above is quite dubious. It’s more likely that conditions will be good, once the rain subsides. Farmers may want to prepare for some disruption in the harvest, particularly early in the day.

Thursday

Alberta

As mentioned, upper level high pressure over BC extends into Alberta. That will keep the province under a clear sky, though visibility and sunshine will be reduced by forest fire smoke. In the afternoon, there is a chance of a shower or thundershower over the foothills, though the smoke may suppress convection, and kill the storms before they’re allowed to develop. For Thursday, the hot weather stays in BC, and in Alberta, we can expect highs of 15 to 20.

Saskatchewan

As mentioned above, a strong wind storm will impact southern Saskatchewan, with gusts of 80 to 90 km/h. Equipment should be secured. The wind won’t die down before evening. Rain will fall along and near the Manitoba boundary, with totals of 25 mm. In Western Saskatchewan, highs will only reach the low teens. With the strong northerly wind in central and eastern Saskatchewan, highs at best will reach the low double digits. It will be windy, cold, and wet through much of the province, and, needless to day, it’s a very poor harvest day.

Manitoba

Cold, wet weather can be expected as the Big Blue Blob (see above) marches across the province from north to south. It will be a poor harvest day with strong wind, significant rainfall, and cold weather. In much of Manitoba, highs could end up in the 5-10 degree range. It will feel like fall.

Friday

Alberta

The upper ridge continues to build into Alberta, and it will be another day of excellent harvest conditions. All day long, the sky will be sunny, and the wind light. South of Edmonton, and east of highway 2, it will be quite cold in the early morning, with lows between 0 and 5. In the afternoon, highs across the province, are expected to reach the low 20s, though forest fire smoke may inhibit the warmth.

Saskatchewan

There is a slight risk of frost in central and eastern Saskatchewan, where morning lows could reach 0, though it would be a light frost. The low pressure system and associated front that produced the windy, cold weather Thursday will pull off to the east, and the sky will clear in central and western regions. Combining should be possible again in drier areas. In the afternoon, the western half of Saskatchewan should reach highs of 15 to 20 degrees, though it will remain cooler on the eastern side, with highs of 10 to 15.

Manitoba

Showers, mainly affecting western Canada, will taper off later in the day. There may be a slight risk of a light frost early Friday morning in western Manitoba, though the chances are greater in Saskatchewan. As the rain tapers off, the sky will slowly clear during the day, but it will remain cold. Below-average highs in the mid teens are expected. Harvest operations may be delayed, as fields remain wet from the recent rain.

Saturday and Sunday

Alberta

Both weekend days will be sunny and warm across Alberta, as the high pressure ridge aloft continues to build, reinforced by a developing ridge at the surface. The wind will come in from the south, and temperatures will climb to the mid 20s on Saturday, and to the mid to high 20s on Sunday.

Saskatchewan

Saturday morning, there will again be a risk of light, patchy frost, under a clear sky. This time, the risk will be greater in the eastern half of the province. Low all the way down to 2-4 degrees are likely, and some low-lying areas may drop to near zero. Sunday morning will be warmer, and a risk of frost is not anticipated. Afternoon highs on Saturday will reach the upper teens. On Sunday, it will be warmer with highs in the low 20s. Both weekend days will have good harvest weather.

Manitoba

Like Saskatchewan, there will be a risk of light, patchy frost on Saturday morning, and on Sunday morning, it will be warmer, with no risk. The sky will clear, and harvesting can resume as crops dry from the rain of recent days. Highs Saturday in Manitoba should reach the high teens, warming to the low 20s on Sunday. Harvest conditions will continue to improve quickly through the weekend.