Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – The dry weather pattern continues,  so the harvest continues, too!

A strong upper ridge over western Canada will keep much of the Prairies mild and generally dry through the week. While this is favorable for combining, it also means smoke, soil-moisture stress, and the risk of localized storms will continue to affect harvest operations.   Soil moisture levels have been dropping with the recent dry weather,  with some not-yet-mature crops remaining thirsty.  That said, the majority of crops are ready for harvest, and the week’s weather will be conducive to getting the job done.   The two maps below show expected rainfall up to the evening of Sunday, September 14.    These maps are derived from the ECMWF (European) model.   So you know,  the Canadian model is forecasting wetter weather, but it seems to be an outlier, as all the other models tend toward dry weather.   The European model represents a compromise, and may turn out to be the most accurate.

BC/Alberta

 

Saskatchewan/Manitoba

 

Both southern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan can expect rain this week, but amounts will be minimal.   Manitoba’s a question mark.   The map above may be seriously underestimating rainfall for southern Manitoba.     The uncertainties will be outlined later in this post.

Overall, weather conditions will be favourable this week for harvesting operations, with a few weather related interruptions.

 

Here is the day-to-day outlook:

Monday

Alberta

The most recent Alberta Crop Report says 22 percent of the major crop harvest is complete, and crops have been ripening under hot dry conditions.    Most Alberta farmers will the chance to continue the pace, as the weather is expected to be dry.  Late afternoon thunderstorms are expected to pop up over the foothills from Edson to Cardston,  and there may be some hail involved.  The storms should remain stationary over the foothills in the afternoon, spreading east toward High River, Lethbridge, and points in between late in the day.   The storms will weaken in the evening.   Highs will reach the mid to high 20s across most of the province, though it will be cooler in the foothills if the storms develop as expected.

Saskatchewan

The Saskatchewan Crop Report tells a similar story to what’s happening in Alberta.  23 percent of major crops have been harvested.  Farmers were able to make a lot of progress in dry weather last week, but soil moisture levels are dropping.    Monday will be a dry day, allowing fast-paced harvesting to continue, as farmers are now racing against the season’s first frost.     While some midday showers are possible near the US border, the rest of Saskatchewan will be sunny and dry.  Temperatures will climb to the mid to high 20s.

Manitoba

It will be a sunny, warm day in Manitoba, allowing the harvest to continue.  The harvest is 29 percent complete in Manitoba, with winter wheat and fall rye finished.   The Manitoba Crop Report notes that soil moisture is dry to very dry in the Interlake.    Afternoon temperatures in Manitoba should reach the high teens to low 20s.

 

Tuesday

Alberta

A dry day is forecast for most of Alberta.   Instability over the foothills will again allow some showers or thundershowers to develop, but they will be isolated, confined to the Crowsnest Pass and Jasper areas, and won’t affect much agricultural land.   With a south wind, it will be warm, with temperatures reaching the high 20s.   Terrain will have a big influence on temperature Tuesday afternoon.   The foothills could be up to 10 degrees cooler than the rest of the province.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

With high pressure over the prairies,  clouds will be scarce, and rain will be absent across Saskatchewan Tuesday.  West of Regina and Saskatoon, temperatures will reach the high 20s, and to the east, it will be just slightly cooler, with highs in the mid 20s.    It will be another good day for harvest, though soil moisture will continue to decline,  increasing concern for fall grazing.

The sky over Manitoba will also remain clear Tuesday, though the province won’t tap in to the warmer air affecting Saskatchewan and Alberta.   Highs in southern Manitoba will be limited to the high teens and low 20s.   While frost is unlikely,  nights will be cool.  This will be a reminder that now is the time to make what preparations are necessary for the first frost.

 

Wednesday

Alberta

A low pressure system near Great Slave Lake will drag a weak cold front across Alberta Wednesday.  It will produce rain in the northern, forested, part of the province, with some showers along the front as it extends north-south toward Crowsnest Pass.   Rainfall amounts will be minimal, and the precipitation will be intermittent.   That said, the showers will continue off and on throughout the day, especially in central Alberta.   The cold front is weak, and won’t have much impact on temperatures.   In fact, some meteorologists may call this a trough, rather than a front.   Nonetheless, temperatures in nortbern Alberta and to the south, west of higway 23, in the cooler, wetter air mass, will reach the high teens to the low 20s in the afternoon.  East of highway 23, highs will reach the high 20s to near 30.

Saskatchewan

A weak disturbance will roll through Saskatchewan Wednesday, kicking off some showers in the southern part of the province.  While rain totals will be minimal, the rainfall will likely disrupt afternoon harvest operations in western Saskatchewan,  and in fields south of Regina and Moose Jaw.   The rain in southern areas will intensify during the evening, and there is a chance of overnight thunderstorms near the US border.    With the bulk of the wet weather coming late in the day, temperatures in agricultural regions are expected to peak in the high 20s during the afternoon.

Manitoba

Manitoba will have a relatively warm September day with highs int he low to mid 20s.   High pressure will keep the province dry, and the weather should be excellent for harvesting.   The wind will be mostly light, from the southeast.

 

Thursday

Alberta

Simple and straightforward is the Thursday outlook in Alberta.  Sunshine prevails, the wind will be light, and it will be mild with afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 20s across the province.

Saskatchewan

Thursday is a day of thunderstorms across the southern half of Saskatchewan, with the biggest impact south of the Trans Canada Highway.    Some of the storms will become severe, with the risk of damaging hail.    The storms will intensify through the afternoon and evening.   There is the potential for local accumulations of 30 to 50 mm of rain, with localized flooding.   The rain is associated with a strengthening Low pressure system headed toward northwestern North Dakota.  The system may contain a lot of moisture, but it’s also quite a warm air mass, and despite the rain, temperatures in southern Saskatchewan should reach the high 20s.  To the north, it will be cooler, with highs in the low 20s.

Manitoba

The harvest in southern Manitoba will be interrupted, as rain showers and storms move in from Saskatchewan, and cross agricultural regions from west to east.   The storms will intensify through the afternoon, and by evening,  severe storms could impact southern Manitoba, west of Portage La Prairie.   Expect strong wind.   It will be cool, with highs from 13-18 degrees.

 

Friday

Alberta

It will be another mainly dry day across the province, though there is a chance of scattered afternoon showers in the Drumheller/Brooks/Vulcan/Barons area, and a risk of scattered afternoon showers or thunderstorms over the foothills.   The wet weather is partially due to a surface wind from the southeast, causing an upslope flow.   Temperatures in eastern Alberta, from the Northwest Territories to Montana, should reach the mid to high 20s.   In western Alberta, expect highs in the low to mid 20s.

Saskatchewan

Another round of storms is expected in central and southern Saskatchewan on Friday.   Rainfall amounts won’t be as intense as Thursday, but due to nearly saturated ground, localized flooding is possible.   Southwestern Saskatchewan could warm to the mid 20s, but the rest of the province will be cooler, with highs in the teens.

Manitoba

Morning storms in southern Manitoba will weaken, and there may be some partial clearing in the afternoon.   It will be cool in the afternoon due to a northerly flow.   Highs will only reach 11-16.

 

Saturday

Alberta

It will be yet another sunny, warm, and stable day in Alberta, with a light wind from the south.  And much of the province will warm to the high 20s in the afternoon.   Low 20s are anticipated for the foothills and higher terrain.    The harvest will continue uninterrupted by weather on Saturday, and for those enjoying some time off…a great late summer weekend for any an all outdoor pursuits.

Saskatchewan

Rain continues in southeastern Saskatchewan, while the sky clears elsewhere.  What could be a major storm moves into the Estevan – Moosomin region from the US.  Intense rainfall is expected in the afternoon, with the possibility of severe weather, including lightning and hail.   The storm will stall over southeast Saskatchewan during the day, before moving northward overnight toward Yorkton.   Because of that rain and potentially severe weather, southeastern Saskatchewan can expect high temperatures in the high teens.   To the west, it should warm to the mid 20s.

Manitoba

A storm pulling northward into southeastern Saskatchewan will spread rain into southwestern Manitoba.   Rainfall amounts should be light.   The sky will clear elsewhere in the province.   High temperatures will be highly dependent on how early the sun emerges.   Areas with sunshine by early afternoon could reach the low 20s.   Where the sun doesn’t appear until later in the day, highs could be limited to the high teens.

 

Sunday

Alberta

The window of excellent harvest weather remains wide open in Alberta.  This, though could be the last day for an uninterrupted harvest.   A Low pressure system will develop over Alberta Sunday.  The rain, though, will hold off until Monday morning, when it will become widespread across the province.   In the sunny, dry weather Sunday, temperatures will reach the mid 20s aross the province, and it may be even warmer in southeastern Alberta and the Peace Region.

Saskatchewan

Central Saskatchewan can expect wet weather, as the system  that brought rain to the south on Saturday moves north, parking itself near Saskatoon.  The heaviest rain will be to the north of the Low, but showers will linger at least into the early afternoon in south central regions.   With the rain moving north, it will cool down in central and northern Saskatchewan, with highs below 20 degrees.   In the south, as the rain leaves, slightly warmer air will move in, and we may see highs in the low to mid 20s.

Manitoba

Better harvest conditions finally return to southern Manitoba, though rain showers may linger in the Red River Valley.    With the clearing sky,  highs  in southern Manitoba. will reach the high 20s, pushing 30.  It will be only slightly cooler in areas where the rain has not completely ended.  To the north, expect highs in the low to mid 20s.

 

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