Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Less drought!  For now.  Thanks to significant November rain and snowfall, drought conditions have eased across much of the prairies. It’s still concerning in western Manitoba, southern and north central Saskatchewan, central and northwestern Alberta, and in the foothill farm and ranchlands of southwestern Alberta.

Overall, 48% of Canada’s agricultural land is considered to be Abnormally Dry or in drought.   In Alberta, November precipitation was 150% of normal, except in southwestern Alberta and the foothills, with less than 85% of normal rain and snowfall.   In the agricultural areas of Saskatchewan, precipitation in November was 150% of normal, and in most of Manitoba’s agricultural land, precipitation was 115% of normal.  The exception is south-central Manitoba, were rain and snowfall were more than 200% of normal.

A series of Pacific storms will slam into the west coast this week, but won’t make it to the prairies, which will be under a rather persistent ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere. The Pacific lows will try to erode the ridge, with some success mid-week. However, by the end of the week, the ridge rebuilds and becomes even more powerful, creating some very mild conditions across the western prairies.

Until then, it could be rather cold, as another blast of Arctic air surges southward. this map shows temperatures in the early evening Tuesday.

24 hours later, it’s even colder in the eastern prairies, while in southern Alberta, a chinook causes temperatures to rise more than 20 degrees, well above the melting point.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba will remain cold until the weekend, while relatively balmy conditions remain through the week in southern Alberta.

Don’t expect a lot of change in snow cover this week. There will be snow in parts of the agricultural prairies, but no significant storms are expected. Cold weather everywhere but southern Alberta will maintain the existing snowpack. And here’s what that looks like:

 

Yes, at one time or another this week, every square inch of the prairies is  likely to get at least some snow.  The map below shows accumulations up to Sunday December 22.   The heaviest accumulation is expected in southern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba, with 20-30 cm.    Note as well the extraordinarily low accumulations in Western Alberta, where snowfall will be negligible.

Any snow that falls this week in the dry areas of southern Alberta will disappear quite quickly, as a shot of impressively warm air comes in at the end of the week. Elsewhere across the prairies, the snowpack is largely healthy.

Monday:

Alberta

Light snow in northern Alberta tapers off during the day, as Arctic high pressure builds and much colder air rushes in.  Central and northern Alberta will cool to the minus teens and minus twenties by the afternoon.  South of Edmonton, it won’t be quite as cold, with highs from 0  to -10.   Generally speaking, the further south you are, the warmer it will be.

Saskatchewan

A departing Low over Lake of the Woods sends snow back across Manitoba and into Saskatchewan.  The snow won’t be constant, but will happen across the province off and on through the day.  By late afternoon, the snow’s all but done in central and southern Saskatchewan, though it will continue in the far north.  Arctic air begins to build in from the north, and colder weather returns.  The southern two thirds of the province will only reach highs of -10 to -15, but further north, it’s much colder, with highs closer to -20.

Manitoba

It’s a snowy day across Manitoba, courtesy of a Low over Lake of the Woods.   The heaviest snow will be northwest of the Low, across Manitoba’s interlake.  However, it will snow elsewhere across the province, tapering off overnight into Tuesday morning.  There will be a brisk wind from the northwest, which will impair travel and create high wind chill.  The blast of cold air that will bring extreme cold to parts of Saskatchewan and Alberta will moderate considerably, and Manitoba won’t be as cold, with daytime temperatures across the south getting close to zero.

Tuesday:

Alberta

Arctic air continues to flood into Alberta, and there may be a bit of snow to go along with it from Calgary south to and beyond the US border.   The chance of snow is very uncertain, but if it does happen, it will be very light, early in the morning, ending by mid afternoon.   Without a well defined moisture source, the chance of snow is not zero, but also not all that great.   It is, though, something to watch if you have outdoor chores or plans Tuesday in southern Alberta.   The rest of the province will be dry, and cold.   By late afternoon, the Arctic high will have moved south from the Territories, to situate itself right over Alberta. Temperatures in central Alberta will drop to the minus teens and twenties.  In the south, it will be cold, but not THAT cold.   By the afternoon temperatures in south central Alberta will sit between -10 and -15, and in the south and southwest, it will be a few degrees warner with temperature between -5 and -10.  Overnight it will be very cold, with temperatures in most of Alberta below -15.  It will be particularly cold in the Lloydminster area, where it could get as cold as -30 late Monday night and early Wednesday morning.

Saskatchewan

With the exception of some very light upsloping midday snow in the Cypress Hills, southern Saskatchewan will be dry.  Morning snow in northern Sasktachewan moves into central Manitoba by midday.  As Arctic air builds in, Saskatchewan will be quite cold all day long, and everywhere.  Along the North Dakota border, highs will be near or below -10.   Further north, the rest of the province will experience highs ranging from -15 to a bone-chilling -25.  In the evening and overnight, lows will drop to the -30s between Saskatoon and Lloydminster.

Manitoba

Light snow moves across central Manitoba from west to east during the day; the south stays dry, partly cloudy, and with a westerly wind.   On the east side of Alberta’s Arctic high, a northerly flow develops, sending very cold air rushing into the province from the north.   by afternoon temperatures will have plummeted to near -20 across the western and northern sections of the province, while in the south and in the interlake, highs will reach -10 to -15.

Wednesday:

Alberta

The Arctic high moves out of Alberta into Southern Saskatchewan, and Alberta will lose its dry, cold air.  Chinook conditions will form in southwestern Alberta Wednesday, preceded in the morning by a chance of snow from Calgary south and southeast to Lethbridge, Milk River, Bow Island, Medicine Hat, and the Cypress Hills.   As the snow moves east, southern Alberta dries out, and with a strong westerly wind, temperatures could climb by as much as 20 degrees south of Highway 3.   North of highway 3, there will be a rapid fall in temperature, with afternoon highs only reaching -10 to -20 just north of Calgary.   In the warm chinook zone, it’s liable to be windy.

Saskatchewan

With chinook conditions developing in Alberta in the afternoon, some of the warm air will move into southwestern Saskatchewan.   Temperatures should get close to the melting point between Regina and the Alberta boundary.  In central and northern Saskatchewan, no such warmth.  Highs will remain in the -15 to -20 range.   Temperature is not the biggest concern of the day.  As the warm air moves in from the west, it will be accompanied by precipitation, most of it snow, some of it freezing rain.    The snow arrives in the morning between Moose Jaw and Alberta, with freezing rain possible in the Cypress Hills.   By afternoon the snow and freezing rain will cover most of southern Saskatchewan, causing travel trouble.   Watches and warnings will likely come from Environment Canada, and should be taken seriously.   In the evening, a low pressure system in southern Saskatchewan intensifies, and a major snowstorm is possible, affecting all areas south of Saskatoon.

Manitoba

The Low pressure system referenced in the Saskatchewan paragraph above, will bring late day snow to Western Manitoba, and close to the Saskatchewan border, it could be intense.   Weather conditions, watches, and warnings should be consulted before travelling west of Portage La Prairie Monday night.   During the day, though, it will be sunny and dry, as Arctic high pressure moves across the southern part of the province.  This is a pool of very cold air, as highs in most areas of Manitoba will only get to -15 to -20.

Thursday:

Alberta

The chinook that caused temperatures to rise as high as they did in southern Alberta on Wednesday, backs off a bit, warming only the far southwestern corner of the province – Waterton Park and, maybe Cardston, where temperatures will climb above the melting point.   Elsewhere along the foothills, temperatures could rise to -5, but everywhere west of highway 22 will suffer cold weather, with highs between -10 and -20.    This is a one day blast of cold air for southern Alberta, as chinook conditions will rebuild.    No significant snowfall is expected in Alberta Thursday, but there may be a brisk wind in the afternoon, as those chinook conditions return to the south.

Saskatchewan

The Low pressure system expected to cause disruption Wednesday will move southeast on Thursday.   The system left 10-20 cm of snow from Swift Current to Estevan. Expect snow in the early morning to be gone by noon, as the Low picks up speed through North Dakota and Minnesota.   The low will be pushed out by heavy, dense, arctic air.   While it means the sky will clear, and there will be abundant sunshine by the afternoon, it will still be cold.  Afternoon temperatures across Saskatchewan can be expected to hover around -15 to -20.

Manitoba

Brrrr.  It’s another very cold day across Manitoba, with highs between -15 and -20, under the influence of a northerly circulation around the arctic high in Saskatchewan.   Meantime, a low pressure system moving from Saskatchewan into southern Manitoba will produce significant snow, with at least 10 cm for the Red River Valley south of Winnipeg.  The snow will likely be quite heavy in the early morning, disrupting the commute,  taper off by noon, and then be gone by late afternoon.

Friday:

Alberta

An upper ridge builds right over Alberta, and this time it’s NOT arctic high pressure.   The cold air will depart, and warmer conditions take over, with the upper flow shifting from the northwest to the southwest.   The cold snap ends, and temperatures will climb above the melting point in southern Alberta and along the foothills not only Friday, but for several days to come.  Elsewhere in Alberta Friday, it will remain below the freezing point in eastern and northern regions.   It won’t be snow-free everywhere.  A weak disturbance will produce some light snow before sunrise Friday from the Peace region to Edmonton, and that band of snow will move rapidly eastward.  The snow will be in Saskatchewan likely by early afternoon.

Saskatchewan

Some of Alberta’s warmer air could make the trip down the Trans Canada highway to Regina, where highs could reach -5 or so.   To the north, where there is no influence from mild Pacific air, temperatures across central and northern regions will remain below -10.   As in Alberta, where the warm air mass meets the cold air mass, a line of snow will likely develop from Lloydminster, southeast through Saskatoon, toward Balgonie and the US border.

Manitoba

All of Manitoba will be cold.   All of Manitoba will be dry, until the late afternoon, when some snow sneaks into the southwestern corner of the province.   The Arctic High remains in place, perhaps overstaying its welcome.   Most of Manitoba will stay colder than -20, with highs in the -30s north of Thompson.

Saturday:

Alberta

It will be a rather uneventful day across most of Alberta, with warmer weather, and dry conditions.  One exception, and it could be a big exception.   There is a chance freezing rain could develop early in the morning in two separate areas:  Grande Prairie and Red Deer.   If this is the case, driving in these areas will be treacherous until the pavement dries out in the warmer weather to come later in the day.   If there is freezing rain in these areas, it will happen very early, likely between 3:00 and 6:00 am.    Most areas south of Edmonton will enjoy temperatures above the melting point in the afternoon,  with double digit highs possible in southern Alberta south and west of Claresholm and Barons.

Saskatchewan

Mild air returns to parts of Saskatchewan, with some parts of the southwest seeing temperatures climb above zero.   Higher elevations in the Cypress Hills could see mid single digit highs, due to the higher elevation tapping into the warmer air aloft.   Highs elsewhere in southern Saskatchewan should reach the -5 to 0 range.   North of Saskatoon, arctic air is still in place, with highs below -10.   East of Regina and Saskatoon and north of Saskatoon, expect early morning snow, as a weak disturbance moves through during the morning.   The snow should wrap up by the afternoon, as it moves into Manitoba.

Manitoba

A north-south band of snow will track across the province during the day.   Early morning snow will fall across western Manitoba.  By noon,  in the north, the snow will continue to fall on the western side, but the southern portion of the snow band will have shifted all the way east to the eastern side of the Red River Valley and Lake Winnipeg.   Snow in those regions will persist into Sunday morning.   Behind the band of snow, there will be a warming trend, with afternoon temperatures in the -5 to -10 range across the southern half of Manitoba.   To the north, the bracing cold remains, with highs near -20.

Sunday:

Alberta

Christmas week begins, and it looks rather uneventful, with very little change in the weather.   An upper ridge of high pressure eliminates any chance of snow, warm air aloft is drawn in from the southwest, while at the surface, a downsloping westerly wind helps boost temperatures to the 5-10 degree range south of Calgary.   Highs above the melting point are expected to stretch well to the north of Edmonton.   No precipitation is expected in Alberta Sunday.

Saskatchewan

Like Alberta, no snowfall is expected Sunday in Saskatchewan.   And, like Alberta, some areas will experience temperatures above the melting point.   Looking at you, southwest Saskatchewan.  Elsewhere, except for far northeastern regions, it will be mild, with temperatures generally in the -5 to -10 range, with some cooler pockets in lower lying areas.

Manitoba

Manitoba will also have a quiet weather day, but it won’t be quite as warm as the neighbors to the west.  Through the interlake and into southern Manitoba, highs between -5 and -15 can be expected.   The sub -20 weather continues north of the lakes, over the permafrost.  Snow on the east side of Lake Winnipeg will taper off through the day.   Elsewhere, it will be dry.   A weak disturbance could produce ice pellets and freezing rain in northern North Dakota Sunday afternoon.   It’s not expected to cross the border, but southwestern Manitobans should pay close attention to this on Sunday afternoon.

 

 

 

COMPARE TO LAST WEEK: Prairie Weather This Week – Dec 9