Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Mild weather and drying wind last week erased much of the snow cover on the western prairies, notably in southern Alberta. Fields, which a week ago, were covered in snow became largely bare.

The photos above and below were captured in the afternoon of Sunday Dec 8.  The photo above is near Monarch.  The one below shows Highway 4 near Stirling.

While snow did fall Sunday night across parts of southern Alberta, much more is needed to protect the soil and winter crops from the next Arctic outbreak.   While forecasting weather more than a week out is a bit of a fool’s game, it does look like an Arctic outbreak could hit is on or about the 18th of December.   The good news is,  there will likely be a couple of days of snow before the cold weather hits, and that SHOULD provide a protective covering of snow.

Bare land is not a problem elsewhere on the prairies.    Sunday snowstorms have laid down a good covering of snow in Saskatchewan.   This photo was captured near Macklin Sunday Dec 8:

And, from the same afternoon, Manitoba highway 75 near Letellier:

Monday morning, Dec 9, what’s left of the snow event exits southeastern Manitoba, and dry weather returns.  While no major snowstorms are expected this week across the prairies, there will be a few flurries or periods of snow from time to time.

And, this animation of forecast temperatures for this week, shows between Monday morning and Wednesday evening,  Arctic high pressure causes bitterly cold air to plunge into Saskatchewan and Manitoba, dropping temperatures into the -20s and -30s, while the weather in southwestern Alberta remains warm, rising back up above the melting point:

If you’re reading this in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, get ready for some of the coldest weather so far this season.

Monday:

Alberta

Residual snow from the weekend Low that hit the eastern prairies with a wintry storm will taper off along the Saskatchewan boundary.   By the afternoon, the snow will be over for southern and central Alberta, though it will continue to fall in northeastern regions of the province.   As the Low moves east, there will be a wind shift behind it.   In the westerly wind, temperatures south of the Trans Canada Highway will climb above zero.   In fact, highs near zero can be expected across the entire southern 2/3rds of the province, with only slightly colder weather in the north.

Saskatchewan

The clipper system that brought a big snowfall to southern Saskatchewan Sunday will have moved off into Minnesota by Monday morning, yet we can still expect snow.   Residual light snow or flurries will fall through most of the day in southern and northern Saskatchewan, with drier weather in the middle.  Mild Pacific air will try to nudge the cold arctic air out of the area, and it will take all day before that happens.   At the end of the day, when the Pacific air takes over, temperatures will climb slightly above zero west of highway 4, and climb to near zero to the east.   This mild air poses little threat to what is becoming a well developed snowpack.

Manitoba

Snow and blowing snow will persist in the early morning in southern Manitoba, as the clipper system moves southeast toward Minnesota.   Driving in southern Manitoba before sunrise could be quite hazardous, but will ease through the day as the storm system moves away.   By noon, the snow will have tapered off considerably in Westman, and begin to do so in the southeast.  Meantime another Low far north in Nunavut will drop a cold front across northern Manitoba, generating snowfall from Thompson to Churchill.   Highs in western Manitoba should reach -5 to -10.   In northern Manitoba, south over Lake Winnipeg, and along the Red River Valley to the US border, temperatures may stay below -10 all day.

Tuesday:

Alberta

It’ll be a rather quiet morning across Alberta, with things beginning to get interesting in the afternoon.   A High pressure system way up in the northern part of the Territories, will grow, and the ridge of arctic air will develop southward toward Saskatchewan.   To the west, a Low pressure system will form in northeastern BC.   In between the ridge and the Low, there will be a strong southeasterly flow, and there will be snow.   A band of snow will develop in the afternoon from Medicine Hat northwest through Edmonton and into the Northwest Territories.   Elsewhere, it will be a dry day.   However, and you can see it in the animated map above, the northern High will cause temperatures to fall during the day in northern Alberta, and by midday, the northeastern part of the province will be down in the -20s.  By contrast, in southern Alberta, you can look forward to highs near zero.

Saskatchewan

As shown the map above, cold air from Arctic high pressure begins to plunge into the province, and temperatures will fall throughout the day.   For example, near Chamberlain, you’ll wake up to temperatures near -5, and by late afternoon, it will be closer to -20.   Dramatic temperature drops just like that will happen across the province through the day.    The high pressure system not only pushes cold air into the province, it pushes away any residual snow out of southern Saskatchewan, and by evening, it should be dry across the province.  And cold.  Lows near -30 are possible Tuesday night near Wynyard, Foam Lake, and possibly Melville.

Manitoba

Snow continues in southern Manitoba for one more day, as an invasion of Arctic air begins.  The same huge high pressure system that will bring frigid conditions to Saskatchewan and northeastern Alberta will do the same  in Manitoba.   Snow in southern Manitoba will taper off through the day.  Temperatures in northern Manitoba first thing in the morning will be in the -20s, and that cold air will march southward through the day. With all the snow on the ground, it won’t have a chance to moderate.   By late afternoon and early evening, temperatures in the -20s will be expected across all of Manitoba, with lows of -30 possible Tuesday night between Brandon and Portage.

Wednesday:

Alberta

A large ridge of high pressure with deep Arctic air slides into Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and while Alberta will be left out of the coldest weather, there will be some activity going on in the province.   Around the big high to the east will circulate a southeasterly wind and some snowfall into Alberta, especially in a line from Manyberries northwest to Jasper. Snow will also fall in the northern part of the province.  As the coldest air will break out to the east, it will be quite warm in most of Alberta, especially in the foothills, where a lee trough will draw in mild Pacific air.  In the foothills, temperatures will rise above the melting point, and peak near zero across most of southern and central Alberta, where the snow will fall.  Only in the far northeastern corner of Alberta will temperatures remain near -20.

Saskatchewan

It’s a different story in Saskatchewan, where the arctic high pressure system takes up residence.  It is expected to be dry, mainly sunny, and bitterly cold.  By late afternoon, temperatures near -30 can be expected in a line from Balgonie to Saskatoon, with the rest of the province firmly in the -20s.  The wind won’t be super-strong, but wind chill will become a hazard across Saskatchewan on Wednesday, and the threat is expected to persist through Friday.

Manitoba

Like Saskatchewan, wind chill values will be quite high through the day,  as temperatures across the province remain below -20.   There wont’ be a lot of wind, but with temperatures this low, it doesn’t take a lot of wind to create a wind chill hazard.    Most of Manitoba will be dry through the day under the clearing effect of the Arctic high.  Only the northeastern section of Manitoba can expect any snow, generated by a Low over Hudson Bay.

Thursday:

Alberta

Thursday morning, most of Alberta is cold and dry, with an extensive fog bank near Lethbridge.  However, a Low pressure system developing on the BC side of the Peace Region will destabilize things in northwestern Alberta.   Expect snow in the morning from Grande Prairie to Lloydminster,  expanding across northern Alberta, and stretching southward along the Saskatchewan boundary to Provost by evening.   Further to the west, a westerly wind will maintain dry, breezy weather west of Highway 2, and in that area, highs will again jump above the melting point as northeastern Alberta continues to shiver.

Saskatchewan

Southern Saskatchewan, west of Moose Jaw, will break out of the bitterly cold weather, while the rest of the province continues with temperatures near -20, and high wind chill.   Some mild air from the southwest will take temperatures to highs between -5 and -10 between Moose Jaw and the Alberta boundary.    The rest of the province will be dry, as it remains under the influence of the Arctic high.     The high does show signs of weakening by this point, giving hope that the coldest weather will soon have come and gone.

Manitoba

Still under the influence of the Arctic high, Manitoba will not experience any snowfall, except for the far north.  This will likely be the coldest day of the week for the Red River Valley, with late afternoon temperatures dropping to  -30.  That very cold air will extend east of Winnipeg to Highway 12.   West of Winnipeg, temperatures will drop to the -30s all the way into Saskatchewan. The rest of the province will be a bit warmer, with highs in the -20s.   Wind chill will be an issue, as even the slightest breeze can have an effect on a very low temperature.

Friday:

Alberta

Expect another dry day in Alberta, with no significant precipitation anywhere in the province.   In the south, a westerly wind will reinforce the dry conditions, and boost temperatures.   Elsewhere in the province, the wind will be light and variable, and we can expect a mix of sun and cloud.   South of Fort Macleod and Lethbridge, a brisk Chinook wind could boost temperatures as high as 10 degrees, while temperatures above the melting point will occur across the rest of the south, and west of Highway 2, along the foothills.   The rest of the province will be warmer than average with highs from -5 to 0.

Saskatchewan

Milder air begins to take over a larger portion of the province as the Arctic high that has dominated the weather pattern all week continues to move away.   Highs of -5 to -10 can be expected across western regions, though it will remain quite cold elsewhere.   However, the warmer air also brings some moisture, and a band of snow will cross the northern part of the province from west to east through the day.    Southern and central regions will remain dry.

Manitoba

The Arctic High that dominated the weather pattern for the past few days, moves off to the southeast.   The day will begin dry with sunshine across Manitoba.   Some cloud can be expected to develop during the day, and in the far north, a band of snow will move across the permafrost from west to east.   The southern 3/4 of the province won’t see any snow, so no new moisture for agricultural regions.    It will be a cold day, with highs staying below -15 across the entirety of the province.

Saturday:

Very mild air moves in across the southern prairies, with no beneficial moisture.   There will, though, be some significant snowfall during the afternoon and evening across northern Alberta, as a trough of low pressure develops in the area.   In those snowy northern areas, it won’t be that cold, with temperatures climbing to between -5 and 0.   Expect 10 to 20 cm of back-breaking heavy, wet snow.  Travel will be impacted.  Across the central and southern prairies, mild air is drawn in on a southwesterly wind, and the downsloping effect of the Alberta foothills will be felt all the way east into Manitoba.    It means the potential for double digit highs in southern Alberta,  highs of 0-5 in central Alberta and western Saskatchewan, and highs near zero across the rest of the southern prairies.    This is not helpful to the soil moisture situation in southern Alberta, already suffering from a lack of snow cover.    While some snow may disappear in western Saskatchewan, it ought not to be warm enough to cause the snow to completely vanish.

Sunday:

This is a day to pay attention to weather warnings, especially in southern Saskatchewan.  A Low will develop in the morning in southern Alberta, and other than producing cloud cover, it’s effect will be minimal.   East of the low, mild air will be drawn into southern Saskatchewan, and as the Low moves eastward, precipitation will develop.  Here’s where it gets messy.  The precipitation will fall in the form of rain, or freezing rain.   This will cause dangerous travel conditions in southern Saskatchewan, which will last throughout the day.   It won’t be until evening when the rain and freezing rain completes a transformation to snow.   This may increase highway hazards, as a layer of snow will cover ice on the pavement below.   Keep on top of weather and highway conditions before travelling in southern Saskatchewan on Sunday.    Similar conditions may develop in southern Manitoba on Monday.   Back in Alberta, the Low may produce some rain or snow in the southeast, from Lethbridge to Saskatchewan in the afternoon.   Freezing rain is less likely.   It will be warm, with temperatures rising above zero from the foothills to Regina, and remaining rather mild in southeastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

COMPARE TO LAST WEEK: Prairie Weather This Week – Dec 2