Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Unsettled weather – more rain for the prairies

Our first major rain event of the season is behind us, but the rain is not over yet, especially for Saskatchewan and Manitoba. where instability will produce thunderstorms and locally heavy downpours from time to time this week.   Thunderstorms could also make frequent appearances this week over Alberta’s foothills.

The numbers from the storm June 20/21 in Alberta are quite impressive.    Heavy rain and strong wind, mostly.   The first day of summer also brought big accumulations of snow to the Alberta Rockies, including Kananaskis and Bragg Creek.   Here are the stats from ECCC:

 

In southwestern Alberta, still officially in drought, the moisture was especially welcome.   This field near Cowley seemed quite green on June 22:

 

 

 

For some, who seeded early, the rain may have come too late.   The latest Alberta Crop report shows only 53 percent of crops are in good to excellent condition in the South region.   The assessment was done prior to the weekend rain event.  At that time it was noted that low soil moisture levels were placing stress on crops and pastures, and that hay cutting began earlier than usual because of the lack of moisture.

Parts of Saskatchewan also received considerable rainfall over the same two day period:

 

Saskatchewan Rain June 21/22

Data: CoCoRahs

Earlier last week,  scattered hail storms across Saskatchewan caused crop damage, some of it severe.   According to the Saskatchewan Crop Report, fall seeded crops in advanced stages of development were hardest hit, and unlikely to recover.   There are hopes that later seeded crops will be able to bounce back.

No weather related damage is noted in the latest Manitoba crop report, but it is mentioned that moisture is needed to continue what has been good progress.

And, that moisture is on the way.    As mentioned earlier, thunderstorms could become quite common over the prairies this week, due to an unstable atmosphere.   Due to the isolated, random nature of thunderstorms, it’s not really possible to forecast rainfall amounts for any specific location, but this map from ECCC gives us a general idea of how much to expect until the evening of Sunday, June 29:

 

This week, the greatest rainfall amounts will fall in Saskatchewan and Manitoba,  and while there is more rain on the way for Alberta, most areas will receive less than 10 mm.   That said,  any location that finds itself beneath a thunderstorm will receive locally higher amounts.

 

Monday

Alberta

A weak low in central Alberta will give showers to the region, especially just south of a line between Edmonton and Lloydminster.   Thunderstorms will be possible in the area.  The low will drag a cold front across south central Alberta Monday afternoon and evening, leading to showers and possible thundershowers in a line from Oyen to Drumheller to Calgary, on the way to the foothills.  Overall, rain amounts will likely come in less than 5 mm,  but there could be considerably more associated with localized thunderstorms.   It will be cool, with afternoon highs across the province only reaching the mid teens.

Saskatchewan

In the morning, showers associated with a strong area of low pressure in eastern Manitoba will fall across southern and central Saskatchewan east of Regina and Saskatoon.   That rain will move east,  and should end by the mid to late afternoon.   Meantime, a weak low that develops early in the day in central Alberta will move into west central Saskatchewan by the afternoon, kicking off some showers and thunderstorms, especially from Lloydminster to Rosetown.    It will be cool, with highs across Saskatchewan peaking in the low to mid teens.

Manitoba

It will be a rainy Monday across the southern 2/3rds of Manitoba.  The heaviest rain happens before sunrise, as the low pressure system that brought weekend rain lingers in eastern Manitoba.  The rain will taper off during the day.    By the time the rain’s gone, total amounts east of the Red River Valley  from Sunday and Monday will total around 30 mm.   Rain totals will be about a third of that west of the RRV.     Highs will reach the mid teens.

 

Tuesday

Alberta

Monday will be a dry day across Alberta, with the exception of some showers and thundershowers popping up in the afternoon over the foothills.   There is a chance some of those storms could become severe.  However, it does not appear there is much potential for the storms to move east, off the foothills,  so the rest of the province will stay dry.   Some isolated evening showers can’t be ruled out for the area north of Edmonton.     The return of dry and sunny weather, will bring high temperatures back up to the low 20s across most of Alberta.

Saskatchewan

A few early morning showers and storms are likely between Saskatoon and the Manitoba boundary, but a surface high pressure system begins to develop my midday.  That will help push the rain further eastward, and clear out the sky across the province for the afternoon.   This will produce warmer weather, but not instantly.   So, expect afternoon highs in Saskatchewan to peak in the high teens.  The Cypress Hills/Swift Current areas could be a bit warmer, with highs in the low 20s.

Manitoba

South of the lakes, warm weather returns, with highs in the low to mid twenties.   North of the interlake, it could be about ten degrees cooler.   The reason is rain….from a low pressure system that will cross the central part of the province from west to east during the day.   High pressure will build in behind the rain, and the sky should clear out by evening, if not sooner.   Rainfall amounts for southern Manitoba’s agricultural regions will be minimal to non-existent.

 

Wednesday

Alberta

After a dry morning, a couple of weak low pressure systems will form in central Alberta, and showers will develop in central and northern regions of the province.   It looks like agricultural areas south of the Trans Canada highway will stay dry, with a southwesterly wind.   There is a chance for thunderstorms with hail in the Peace region, with non severe thunderstorms possible elsewhere in central and northern Alberta.    In the south,  highs will reach the mid to high 20s, with high teens and low 20s expected in the northern half of the province, where the afternoon showers and thundershowers are more likely.

Saskatchewan

Central and northern Saskatchewan are expected to remain sunny and dry during the day, but there may be some beneficial rainfall for southern Saskatchewan, as the area taps into some moisture from a system south of the border.   The area most likely to get showers is south of the Trans Canada highway.   Rainfall amounts won’t be impressive, though.   In the late afternoon and evening, a Low pressure system along the Alberta boundary south of Lloydminster, will generate some heavier showers and possibly thunderstorms to the north, near Bonnyville.   Across Saskatchewan, afternoon highs will reach the high teens and low 20s.

Manitoba

It will be another cooler than average day in Manitoba, with highs only reaching the high teens and low twenties.    While the northern and central parts of the province will experience a day of sunshine, the south will remain under cloud cover, and that will help suppress temperatures.   The clouds aren’t going to provide a whole lot of moisture, with just a few scattered showers and perhaps non severe thundershowers in the late afternoon, centered in the Red River Valley.

 

Thursday

Alberta

An unstable atmosphere will provide very unsettled weather for Alberta on Thursday.  As a result, expect to see showers and thundershowers scattered across the province during the day.  There is only a slight chance of severe storms over Alberta’s agricultural regions, so the moisture will be beneficial.   But will it be plentiful?   In most areas, no.  In some areas, yes.   Storms with multiple cells could form in the afternoon, providing substantial rain to isolated areas.    The amount of rain that falls in any one given spot will depend upon how fast the storm passes through.  Slow moving storms will drop a lot more rain than faster moving disturbances.   Expect the storms to be slower the further north you go.   Afternoon temperatures west of highway 2 will reach the high teens.  East of highway 2, it will be warmer, with highs in the low to mid twenties.

Saskatchewan

A low pressure system will bring rain to the forests in the northern half of Saskatchewan.  Elsewhere, look for convective showers and storms across the province.   There is a possibility of severe thunderstorms over a wide area of central Saskatchewan.  The strongest storms are expected to start near Regina and move northeast this evening. These storms could bring large hail and strong, gusty winds. There’s also a chance of a tornado, but that’s uncertain because the storms are expected to be somewhat disorganized. Severe thunderstorms will likely continue through the evening and could last into the night.  Again, the storms will be isolated,   not widespread, but could be capable of causing significant hail damage.   It will be very warm in southern Saskatchewan with highs in the high 20s,  providing the thermal fuel needed for storm development.

Manitoba

It will warm up a bit Thursday in Manitoba, but temperatures across the province will stick to the low 20s.   It will be dry and mostly sunny in the south, with a light and variable wind.   Storms from Saskatchewan could move toward southwestern Manitoba late in the evening, leading to the possibility of nocturnal thunderstorms, with the possibility of severe weather.

Friday

Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba

A change in the weather pattern will bring wet weather to all three prairie provinces starting Friday and continuing into the weekend.  A weak trough of low pressure will move from northeastern Montana into southeastern Saskatchewan during the day, and will intensify.  By midday, the system is producing showers and maybe scattered thunderstorms in southern Alberta, southern Saskatchewan, and western Manitoba.  All those areas will be under a threat of thunderstorms, some of which may be severe.  In the late afternoon, most of Saskatchewan will experience rain and storms.   Likewise, the area of rain in Alberta will expand to include all but the central part of the province.  And in Manitoba, scattered showers and storms will continue through the afternoon in the southwest.   Manitoba could be in for some noisy nocturnal thunderstorms Friday night, as the core of the storm moves out of Saskatchewan, and into Manitoba.   As this happens, the rain tapers off to showers in Saskatchewan and Alberta.   In Alberta, afternoon temperatures will only reach the mid to high teens in the south and the low twenties in the north.   Saskatchewan will be warmer, with highs across the province in the low 20s, and in Manitoba, afternoon temperatures will reach the mid to high twenties.   That Manitoba heat will fuel the stronger storms that will develop Friday night.   The map below shows the likelihood of afternoon thunderstorms Friday.

 

NOTE:  The above map is NOT A FORECAST of Friday afternoon thunderstorms, and should not be regarded as such.   The map just shows where thunderstorms are more likely to occur.

 

Saturday

Alberta

Showers and storms will intensify in central Alberta in the early morning, with thunderstorms breaking out between Edmonton and the Saskatchewan boundary.   Most of the activity will occur north of Highway 9, though some showers within 50 km south of the highway can’t be ruled out.   The wet weather will peak in the midday, then slowly taper off.  The rain should be out of the area in the late evening.    The customary afternoon showers and thundershowers are expected to develop over the southern and central foothills south and west of Red Deer in the late afternoon, drift toward Highway 2, then fizzle out overnight.     It will be very warm Saturday afternoon.  The map below shows temperatures at 3:00 MDT.   South of the Trans Canada Highway, temperatures will reach the high 20s, close to 30.

 

Saskatchewan

Showers will fall across central Saskatchewan through most of the day Saturday,  becoming more widespread in the afternoon.    Thunderstorms are again possible, especially in a line from Macklin to Regina.   The storms are not expected to be severe,  but will be worth monitoring for small to medium sized hail.   Elsewhere, non-severe showers and occasional thunderstorms are expected to pop up across Saskatchewan during the day.   As the map above shows,  hot weather can be expected between the Trans Canada Highway and the US border,  with temperatures peaking in the low 20s in central regions.

Manitoba

A Low pressure system will move through central Manitoba during the day, and areas of heavier rain, showers, and storms will soak the Interlake in the early morning.  The rain, and storms will extend along a trough to the south of the Low, producing wet weather across most of southern Manitoba, and down the Red River Valley into the US.  By midday, the heavier rain will have rapidly moved off into Ontario, to be followed by lighter, more intermittent showers for the rest of the day in southern Manitoba, especially north of the Trans Canada Highway.   Afternoon temperatures across southern Manitoba could reach the low 20s at best.

 

Sunday

Alberta

Sunshine returns to Alberta, and significant weather is not expected anywhere in the province.    The sky will clear out due to a High pressure system that develops over the Rockies, near the Columbia Icefields.   A westlery wind across Alberta will keep the weather dry, and temperatures should rise to the 20-25 degree range across most of the province, with southern regions hitting the 25-30 degree range.

Saskatchewan

A mix of sun and cloud with pop-up showers can be expected across most of Saskatchewan Sunday, though the southwest will stay dry.   Severe weather is unlikely, though non-severe storms in the afternoon could occur in southeastern and central regions.  Afternoon temperatures across Saskatchewan should reach 20-25 degrees.

Manitoba

Manitoba will have a rather active weather day, especially compared to the quiet conditions in Saskatchewan and Alberta.   An upper trough will created unsettled conditions across southern and central Manitoba.   Expect widespread showers, with, possibly, the occasional afternoon thunderstorm.  Severe storms are unlikely.  The wet weather will keep temperatures suppressed, with highs in the high teens or low 20s.

 

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