Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Fields of green, and skies of blue.
Sibbald, Alberta, July 3:
Vanscoy, Saskatchewan, July 3:
Dacotah, Manitoba, July 3:
The sun’s been doing its thing this week across the prairies, interrupted by some isolated showers and thundershowers from time to time. There is no real change to this pattern through the weekend, though it will cool down considerably. Most days will begin with sunshine, and some areas will get afternoon showers and storms.
Thursday
Alberta
Dry weather will dominate another day in southern Alberta. A Low pressure system in Saskatchewan, just northeast of Lloydminster, along with its associated fronts and troughs, will provide rain to central and northern Alberta in the morning, with strong storms possible in Wood Buffalo, north of Fort McMurray. A cold front continues to linger in a northeast to southwest line through central Alberta. In the Calgary area and extending eastward, there is a conditional risk of severe thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. Moisture pooling and localized convergence, particularly along the terrain west of Calgary, may be enough to trigger storms. If thunderstorms do form, there is a chance of one or two supercells capable of producing large hail and strong wind. You can see the effect the cold front will have on temperatures in the map below:
North and west of the cold front, afternoon temperatures will only reach the mid teens. South and east of the front, it will be another 30+ degree day from Milk River to Medicine Hat.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Across southern and central Saskatchewan and into southwestern Manitoba, there is a growing risk of severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Temperatures across southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba will reach the low 30s. Humidity will be high, creating very unstable conditions. If storms can break through a capping layer in the atmosphere, they could quickly become severe. The main threats include large hail, damaging winds, and a slight chance of tornadoes, especially in extreme southeast Saskatchewan and southwest Manitoba.
Over northern Saskatchewan, the atmosphere is less capped, allowing thunderstorms to develop more easily. These storms could bring large hail and, while unlikely, a tornado cannot be ruled out.
As we move into the evening and overnight, thunderstorms may persist in the Red River Valley and southeastern Manitoba. A developing low-level jet will help sustain storms through the night. Damaging winds and large hail would be the main threats in this area. There will be little relief from the heat overnight. with lows near 20.
Friday
Alberta
Showers and rain along a cold front through north central Alberta will continue through the morning, slowly tapering off as the front weakens through the day. South of the front, it will be mainly sunny and dry, with highs from Edmonton south in the high teens and low 20s. It will be considerably cooler in most of Alberta, compared with earlier in the week. Lethbridge, Milk River, and Medicine Hat will be exceptions, as highs have a chance at reaching 25 to 27 degrees. South of highway 3, it will remain sunny until clouds move in later in the day.
Saskatchewan
Overnight thunderstorms will likely merge into a broad area of showers and embedded thunderstorms across far northern Saskatchewan by Friday morning. Rainfall totals of 15 to 30 mm are expected, with locally higher amounts possible in areas that experience stronger thunderstorms. Agricultural regions of Saskatchewan will have another dry, uneventful day. It will be slightly cooler compared to previous days this week, with highs in the mid twenties.
Manitoba
Southern Manitoba will have another hot day, with high humidity, and muggy conditions. Temperatures south of the lakes will reach the low 30s, and in the rest of Manitoba won’t be far behind with highs between 25 and 30 degrees. High heat and humidity often provide fuel for thunderstorms, and while storms are possible Friday, it doesn’t look like there will be anything to trigger them. If conditions change, and storms to get triggered, they could become quite explosive.
Saturday
Alberta
Showers and thunderstorms return to southern Alberta, first thing in the morning. A Low pressure system near Chief Mountain will create the wet weather south of Highway 3 in the early morning, and it will continue through the midday. The system is very slow moving, and there may be significant rainfall accumulation in the area. The rain won’t move much farther north than Claresholm, so central and northern Alberta will stay dry. That could change a bit in the afternoon, with some convective showers or thunderstorms popping up over the foothills. In the evening, a Low will form near Sundre, producing rain and thunderstorms in central Alberta, north of Red Deer. With all the rain in the south, it will be a cool day, with highs between 10 and 15. In central and northern regions of Alberta, expect highs in the low 20s.
Saskatchewan
A high pressure system centered over central Saskatchewan will keep the province dry on Saturday. Expect mainly cloudy conditions in the south, and sunshine in the north. Temperatures will be near, or slightly below average, reaching only the low 20s across the province.
Manitoba
Cooler weather returns to Manitoba, where temperatures will be somewhat below average. Highs will reach the low 20s across the province, except near the major lakes, where it may be a few degrees cooler. It will be dry across Manitoba’s agricultural regions.
Sunday
Alberta
A low pressure system will track across north central Alberta Sunday, from the southwest to the northeast, and will produce rain as it moves across the area. The rain will get stronger as the day goes on, and the afternoon could end with a downpour near Fort McMurray. Rain will also extend south toward Lloydminster, Coronation, and Oyen. Lightning storms can’t be ruled out. The south will stay dry until the afternoon, when showers and storms could erupt along the Forestry Trunk Road, and south of the Trans Canada Highway. Highs across Alberta will reach the high teens or low twenties. In southeastern Alberta, beyond the reach of the rain, expect highs between 25 and 30.
Saskatchewan
Highs between 20 and 25 can be expected across Saskatchewan on Sunday. This is partly due to cool breezes from the east, circulating around a high pressure system, which moved from Saskatchewan Saturday to Manitoba on Sunday. The western half of the province will become cloudy in the afternoon, but no significant rainfall is expected Sunday.
Manitoba
Clouds in southern Manitoba Sunday morning will move off into Ontario by the afternoon, leaving a mainly sunny sky across the entire province. It will be slightly cooler than average, with highs in the low 20s.
COMPARE: Prairie Weather This Week – June 23
