Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Big rain on the way
This will be a rainy week across the prairie provinces. For Alberta, the bulk of the rain falls early in the week, Saskatchewan’s rain will be more evenly distributed from day to day, and in Manitoba, look for some very wet weather at the end of the week.
The heaviest rain can be expected in Manitoba, with most of it falling at the end of the week. Some areas of western Manitoba could get 75 to 100 mm of rain. Localized flooding may be a concern. A second area of heavy rain is western Alberta. Most of the rain there will fall early Monday, but will continue off and on through the week. The foothills can expect 40-50 mm of rain, with some areas getting up to 70 mm. Rivers and streams in the area are already filling up due to runoff, so the rain will cause levels to rise even further. Pay attention to local media for any flood advisories or alerts.
In Manitoba, such heavy rain may not be welcome, but in southwestern Alberta, it will be very beneficial, as many of the crops there are already planted, and the area continues to struggle with drought.
Rain will disrupt planting and seeding this week. In southern Alberta, seeding is off to a fast start thanks to recent dry weather. The year’s first edition of the Alberta Crop Report shows 50 percent of major crop seeding has already been completed in the south region. This week’s rain will help the seeds germinate, but will also slow down seeding progress. In the central region, seeding is 22 percent complete, in northeastern Alberta, 6 percent complete, and in the northwest, 8 percent complete. In the Peace region, seeding is 10 percent complete.
The Saskatchewan crop report shows across the province, 18 percent of seeding is complete, with southwestern Saskatchewan out front with 43 percent seeding done. The Saskatchewan report notes that some of the early seeded crops are starting to emerge. It says the dry weather of the past week allowed field operations to progress rapidly.
It was a dry week in Manitoba as well, and the Manitoba Crop Report shows provincially, 8% of seeding is complete. While that’s way behind Saskatchewan and Alberta, it is ahead of the five year average for Manitoba of 6%. It’s doubtful that much progress will be made in Manitoba this week, as widespread heavy rain is forecast to begin on Wednesday, and carry on into the weekend.
Monday
Alberta
Significant rain will fall in central and southern Alberta. Early morning precipitation totals could reach 40 mm in the foothills, with higher amounts along highway 11 near Nordegg. A low in southwestern Saskatchewan will produce some heavy rainfall in drought-parched southwestern Alberta in the morning, with that band of heavier rain moving northeast to Lloydminster by the end of the day. Behind this band of heavy rain, lighter precipitation is expected to continue through the rest of the day in southern Alberta. Central Alberta will see another impulse in the afternoon, producing heavier rain from Rocky Mountain house to Red Deer to Lloydminster.
The precipitation will continue into Tuesday morning, though it will become less intense. Snow is expected at higher elevations, and may impact travel in the mountains. Because of the wet weather, afternoon highs in most of southern Ablerta, will range from 5 to 15 degrees, though it will be warmer in the southeast. Two of the most drought stricken areas in Alberta are the foothills west of Red Deer, and southern Alberta west of highway 2. Both areas will receive plenty of welcome moisture Monday.
Saskatchewan
A low pressure system develops before sunrise in southwestern Saskatchewan. Ahead of the Low, there will be a surge of hot air into southern Saskatchewan, with highs exceeding 30 degrees east of Moose Jaw to Manitoba, and as far north as Yorkton. Elsewhere, highs will be in the mid to high 20s across the rest of Saskatchewan’s agricultural regions. As the low moves east, and runs into the hot air, there is a good chance of non severe thunderstorms, and a slight chance of isolated severe storms near Wynyard or Yorkton. To the north, expect rain, some of it heavy from Lloydminster northeast to La Ronge.
Manitoba
The day will begin with a breakfast of showers across southern Manitoba, but planting operations could likely resume in the afternoon as the rain moves into northwestern Ontario. Most of southern Manitoba should become partly cloudy to mainly sunny in the afternoon. Any chance to work the fields this week should be exploited, as there is plenty of rain ahead for the region. It will be hot in southern Manitoba Monday, with most areas south of the lakes reaching highs of 30 or higher. To the north, highs in the 20s will extend all the way to the Hudson Bay shore.
Tuesday
Alberta
It’s another rainy day in central and southern Alberta, though rainfall amounts will be a fraction of what fell Monday. Heavier rain is still likely for the foothills, with a band of light rain moving from the north to the south across southern Alberta during the day. By noon, the rain will have moved south of the Trans Canada Highway, followed by a north wind. South of highway 3, the rain will continue off and on through the day. High temperatures of 15 to 20 degrees can be expected across the province Tuesday, with some localized areas in northern Alberta reaching the high 20s.
Saskatchewan
Very warm weather, with temperatures in the mid to high 20s are forecast for southeastern Saskatchewan, with the rest of the province reaching the low 20s. Before the warm air arrives, showers are expected from north central Saskatchewan to the US border. Those showers will weaken, and by the end of the afternoon, dry weather returns. There will be some afternoon sun, possibly providing enough energy to dry the ground to the point where seeding can resume later in the day.
Manitoba
Any significant rain in Manitoba on Tuesday will fall north of the lakes, not impacting agricultural areas in the south. It will again, be quite hot, with southwestern Manitoba reaching the high 20s, and southeastern Manitoba hitting the low to mid 30s. Some computer models are suggesting high temperatures could reach 35 degrees south of the Trans Canada Highway and west of highway 75, including Morden, Winkler, and Altona. Expect heat warnings to be issued for southern Manitoba.
Wednesday
Alberta
For southern Alberta, this will be one of the driest days of the week. Sunshine and a north wind will provide terrific seeding weather. Take advantage…as more rain is on the way for Thursday. A Low pressure system in northern Alberta will spread rain and snow across the northern forests, but will not impact central or southern regions. It will be relatively cool, with most of the province reaching highs of 15 to 20 degrees. In the north, with the rain and snow, highs will only reach the single digits.
Saskatchewan
There will be an east-west split in Saskatchewan’s temperatures on Wednesday, as a Low in the US will spread rain into southern and eastern Saskatchewan during the day. This will disrupt seeding from Val Marie all the way northeast to The Pas, Manitoba. At times, the rain will be heavy. Highs in the rainy regions will only reach 5-10 degrees. On the western, dry, side of the province, highs will be closer to 20.
Manitoba
It’s another very hot day in southern Manitoba, with highs in and near the Red River Valley reaching 30 degrees, with high 20s elsewhere in Manitoba’s agricultural regions. This is the last day of hot and dry weather, as a disturbance arrives from the south, bringing heavy rain to the region by the end of the week. Expect the rain to start late Wednesday night in western and central Manitoba, spreading eastward on Thursday.
Thursday
Alberta
A north-south band of rain will cross Alberta from west to east during the day, and by the end of the day, it will fizzle out as it heads toward Saskatchewan. The rain band will move through Alberta quite rapidly, so there won’t be much opportunity for significant accumulation. Behind the band of rain, a north wind develops, and the sky tries to clear, as a ridge of high pressure begins to build in. With the cool morning rain and the north wind, it will be a cool day, with highs in most of Alberta ranging from 10 to 15 degrees.
Saskatchewan
Seeding operations in eastern Saskatchewan will again be disrupted by inclement weather. A low pressure system west of Grand Forks, North Dakota will push rain into southeastern Saskatchewan. The rainfall will be quite heavy in southeastern Saskatchewan, and rainfall east of Regina will continue through the day. Localized thunderstorms are expected throughout the day, some of which could drop 80 to 100 mm of rain in concentrated areas. West of the Queen City, it will be dry but cool with a north wind. Most of Saskatchewan will reach 10-15 degrees. Along the Manitoba boundary, where it’s expected to rain, highs will be closer to 5.
Manitoba
A major rainstorm in North Dakota will produce rain across Manitoba during the day Thursday. And in many areas, heavy rain is expected, and will continue for at least a couple of days. This map shows rainfall totals as of early Saturday morning:
Much of the rain depicted above will fall Thursday and Friday in Manitoba. Localized flooding can’t be ruled out, especially in areas where river levels are high due to snowmelt and runoff. Localized heavy thunderstorms are expected over western Manitoba and the Interlake,. Those storms could produce localized accumulations of 50 to 70 mm of rain in southwestern Manitoba. There is a chance Thursday’s highs will reach the high 20s in southeastern Manitoba, where the air is smoky due to a major forest fire near Lac do Bonnet. Releif for that area arrives Friday as Thursday’s rain in western Manitoba slowly moves east. It will be a cold day, with single digit highs in western and south central regions, due to the intense rainfall.
Friday
Alberta
The weather will be rather quiet in Alberta on Friday, with rain and snow in the mountains, and dry, mainly cloudy weather to the east. Afternoon showers and storms are possible along the foothills, with light to moderate rain moving eastward into the evening. Most of the evening rain will fall south of the Trans Canada Highway, with another area of showers developing near Red Deer. There will be an opportunity for sunshine in southeastern Alberta on Friday, so temperatures there could climb to 20 degrees. West of highway 2, and north of the Trans Canada Highway, it will be cooler, with highs in the teens.
Saskatchewan
Wet weather continues in the early morning in southeastern Saskatchewan, as the rainstorm slowly moves east. By the end of the day, the rain will end, but there will still be considerable cloud cover and a north wind. The north wind affects all of Saskatchewan, keeping temperatures below average. It’s unlikely in southeastern Sasktchewan that conditions will be dry enough to resume seeding by the end of the day. In southwestern Saskatchewan, the sun should return in the afternoon.
Manitoba
The chart below shows the progress of rainfall from Thursday morning to Saturday afternoon. In some areas, it may be sometime Sunday before seeding can resume:
And it will be cold, with wintry conditions returning to much of Manitoba on Friday. Check out the expected Friday night/Saturday morning temperatures in the chart below:
Saturday
Alberta
The May long weekend in Alberta lives up to its reputation as the wet weather pattern continues in southern Alberta on Saturday. A weak low pressure system will form just north of Highway 3 near the Forestry Trunk Road, producing rain for south central and central Alberta, along with the southeastern corner of the province near Medicine Hat. There may be a few localized areas of convective rainfall or non severe thunderstorms along the central Alberta foothills, but otherwise, the rain will be light to moderate. It will be cool, with afternoon temperatures across Alberta reaching the mid-teens.
Saskatchewan
With the exception of some topographically induced rain from Swift Current to the Cypress Hills, it will be a dry day in Saskatchewan. A high pressure system near Churchill, Manitoba will produce a southeasterly wind across Saskatchewan, and most of the province will be clear to partly cloudy. High temperatures will reach the low teens across the province, and the sun will have a chance to dry out fields left waterlogged by the Thursday and Friday rain.
Manitoba
After a few days of heavy rain, southern Manitoba and the Interlake begin to dry out. Don’t be shocked to see some snowflakes mixed in with the departing rain before sunrise. A High pressure system will build over northern Manitoba, clearing the sky across much of the province. Southern regions may remain under cloud cover, due to evaporation of accumulated rainfall. With the high to the north, and the lingering effects of the moisture, it will be a cold day, with single digit highs across the province.
Sunday
Alberta
There will be a brief break from the rainfall in southern and central Alberta Sunday morning, but it might be best not to make outdoor plans for the rest of the day. By noon, a Low pressure system in Montana will spread its rain northward into southern Alberta. During the afternoon, there will be significant rain south of the Trans Canada highway. The rain will slowly fizzle as it moves north, reaching Red Deer and Edmonton in the evening. Prior to the arrival of the rain, isolated showers are likely in central Alberta. It all adds up to another wet day, and more delays in seeding. High temperatures in Alberta are expected to reach the mid to high teens on Sunday.
Saskatchewan
Still under the influence of the Manitoba high, Saskatchewan will be dry on Sunday, with a southeasterly wind and a partly cloudy sky. Because the southeasterly wind is drawing in cold air around what is essentially an Arctic high, it will be a chilly day despite a fair amount of sunshine. Highs will be in the low to mid teens.
Manitoba
It will be a quiet day across Manitoba, with no significant precipitation due to the influence of the slow moving high in the northern part of the province. It will be dry, but it will also be very cool, with highs reaching the low double digits at best.
COMPARE: Prairie Weather This Week – May 5
