Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Early week cold front, but little disruption to fertilizing and seeding operations.
As seeding gets into higher gear, the weather will cooperate across the prairies this week.
Now that it’s May, we’ll stop showing the snowfall forecast chart for at least a few months and replace it with a QPF chart. QPF stands for Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, and the chart below shows that most of the agricultural prairies won’t see any significant rainfall this week, so there should not be many weather-related barriers to seeding operations. The map shows total precipitation expected until the evening of Sunday, May 10:
This animated map may be a bit more useful, as it shows the passage of rainfall across the prairies over the next week and shows that while northern and eastern Manitoba will get rain early in the week, no significant storms are expected over the agricultural regions of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba.
Rain is, of course, not the only consideration during seeding season – soil moisture, wind, and other factors may affect operations this week.
Monday
Peace Region
Following the passage of a weak cold front on the weekend, Monday’s temperatures will peak in the mid-teens across the Peace Region, and mainly sunny conditions can be expected. At any given time during the day, there will be no more than a few clouds, and the wind will be light. No weather challenges to field work are expected. At this time of year, overnight lows still need to be monitored. Monday night, though, frost should not be a concern, with lows dropping to the 2 to 4-degree range.
Alberta
In Alberta, overnight lows are also the biggest weather issue on Monday. Expect lows in central and eastern Alberta, as well as the foothills, to drop below the freezing mark Monday night. It will be only slightly warmer elsewhere. Highs will reach the low double digits, which is near or slightly cooler than average for most of the province. No significant precipitation is expected in Alberta. Expect mainly cloudy conditions over the foothills and along the Saskatchewan boundary. Otherwise, it will be mainly sunny with a few clouds from time to time.
Saskatchewan
Cloudier and cooler conditions prevail in Saskatchewan on Monday. A bank of clouds along an upper boundary will affect western Saskatchewan. On the east side of the province, clouds will circulate in from the north around a massive low-pressure system in northern Ontario. This will suppress warmth, and high temperatures across the province will reach only the single digits. Bands of showers will affect central and northern Saskatchewan, but southern and central agricultural regions will see little to no precipitation.
Manitoba
A cold front lies to the south, through North Dakota and Minnesota. Manitoba is deep within the colder air mass, and the northern part of the province, along with the Interlake, will see steady snow. Southern Manitoba is drier, but flurries cannot be ruled out, especially in the Dauphin-Brandon-Boissevain area. The province will see plenty of could cover Monday, with a few sunny breaks. It will be cold, with temperatures in the south peaking in the 3 to 6 degree range. Temperatures in the Interlake and to the north could remain below zero through the day.
Tuesday
Peace Region
With only thin cloud expected, temperatures in the Peace Region will climb to the high teens on Tuesday, which will again provide the perfect conditions for field work. The Peace Region will likely be warmer than another part of Alberta on Tuesday. On the BC side, though, the Peace will actually be one of the cooler parts of the province with temperatures in the interior climbing into the 20s. It will be a dry day, as the few clouds that develop simply won’t have enough juice in them to provide rain. With a stable atmosphere, no significant weather is expected.
Alberta
A northerly flow will provide a cooler day for Alberta, with temperatures across the province peaking in the low double digits. There will be no significant precipitation. Central regions will enjoy a sunny day, and in the south, it will be sunny with cloudy periods. Soil temperatures, already challenged by a cold spring, will not recover quickly. Canola germinates at soil temperatures as low as 2 degrees and wheat at around 4 or 5 degrees, but cool soils slow emergence and produce uneven stands. Measure at seeding depth before committing acres.
Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan can expect a mainly sunny, cool day, with a northerly flow pumping in chilly air. No significant precipitation is expected, so there should be no weather-related issues with field work. Within 100 km of the Manitoba boundary, expect mainly cloudy conditions, but no rain or snow. In that area, it will be cold, with highs only reaching 3 to 6 degrees. In sunnier areas, it will be warmer, but still below average, with highs of 7 to 10 degrees.
Manitoba
In Manitoba, the snow ends, but the clouds remain. Snow in the Interlake and northern Manitoba will come to an end. Across the province, it will be mainly cloudy with a few sunny breaks, and again, agricultural areas can expect dry weather. Temperatures will remain well below average, with few areas even capable of reaching 5 degrees. Northern Manitoba will stay below freezing all day, with central and southern regions stuck with highs between 1 and 4.
Wednesday
Peace Region
There’s a slight chance of some afternoon rainfall in the Peace Region on Wednesday. A weak low-pressure system will form in central Alberta, and the circulation around it will send some upslope-enhanced moisture into the Peace. There won’t be much rain, but it may be enough to interrupt field work in the afternoon. The rain will fall mainly in the Grande Prairie area, with showers to the northwest near Dawson Creek. As the map shows, amounts will be minimal:
Despite the potential for wet weather, the warming trend continues, with highs close to 20 degrees throughout the Peace Region.
Alberta
The map above shows the potential for showers in the west-central Alberta foothills as a low-pressure system develops in central Alberta during the afternoon. It’s a weak low, and precipitation totals will be minimal. Clouds associated with the low will form over the foothills and north-central Alberta. Southern and south central regions east of the foothills will remain sunny. Temperatures will climb into the low to mid twenties across most of the province. However, in areas beneath cloud cover, it will be a bit cooler, with temperatures reaching the mid to high teens.
Saskatchewan
It will remain cool and dry through Saskatchewan. Northerly winds ease through the day. Producers with fields in good condition in southern Saskatchewan may find Wednesday workable where soils are dry enough. Central and northern areas remain cool with frost risk overnight. There is a warming trend, but it’s slow, and the entire province will stay cooler than average, with highs in the south ranging from 8 to 12 degrees. It will be somewhat cooler in the north, with highs in the single digits.
Manitoba
Manitobans will continue to be left wondering, “What happened to spring?” Temperatures in southern and central Manitoba will continue to be below average on Wednesday, with highs in the 5 to 7-degree range. West of the Red River, expect a mainly sunny to partly cloudy day. In eastern and northern Manitoba, it will remain mainly cloudy. And the persistent Low over northern Ontario will produce yet another day of snow north of Thompson. Agricultural territory stays dry – not an ideal week for committing soybeans or corn to ground that is still cold and, in some areas, saturated.
Thursday
Peace Region
Some showers generated by the central Alberta low will continue Thursday morning in the Peace Region, tapering off by mid-morning at the latest. During the afternoon, the clouds will move east and thicken, and the sky over the Peace should clear. The afternoon sunshine will bring temperatures up to the high teens for Grande Prairie and Peace River, and closer to 20 degrees for Dawson Creek and Fort St. John. Overnight lows will be well above zero both during the night before and the night to come.
Alberta
During the day, showers will drift south from the Peace Region into southern Alberta. The rain will not be widespread, and accumulations will be minimal. A weak disturbance is generating the unsettled weather, but organized storms are not expected to form. The area of greatest rainfall will be in southwestern Alberta, from Crowsnest Pass to Waterton. Even there, amounts will be under 5 mm. Elsewhere, there will be plenty of cloud cover across southwestern and central Alberta. It will be sunnier on the province’s eastern side. Across the province, expect highs ranging from 17 to 20 degrees. This includes the far northern forests.
Saskatchewan
It’s another quiet weather day for Saskatchewan, though the wind is expected to change direction from the east to the north. That will, again, limit temperatures to below average highs. Single-digit highs can be expected north of the Yellowhead highway, with readings in the mid-teens expected to the south. The only chance for rain on Thursday in Saskatchewan is in the Cypress Hills, and amounts will likely be well under 5 mm.
Manitoba
The northern Ontario low that has brought snow to northern Manitoba all week will continue to do so on Thursday. The low is caught in a traffic jam of sorts, a blocking pattern that doesn’t allow it to move east, and it may, in fact, back up into Hudson Bay, which will continue the flow of snow into northern Manitoba. In the south, it will be a mainly sunny to partly cloudy day. The low may not be spreading its snow into southern Manitoba, but it is pumping cold air into the region, and as a result, highs on Thursday will remain in the single digits. Only 5 for Winnipeg, 3 for Portage, and 9 for Brandon.
Friday
Peace Region
Low pressure builds over the Alberta foothills on Friday, but with little effect. It’s yet another good day for seeding and field work. Though there may be some clouds, rain is not likely, and temperatures should climb back up to 20. Start watching soil temperature trends closely at the 5 cm depth if you plan to seed next week.
Alberta
Temperatures in Alberta will climb to the low 20s across the entire province on Friday, though much of the province will be under a cloudy sky. A low-pressure system develops over the foothills during the day, but the only area where rain is likely is along the southern part of the Forestry Trunk Road. The rest of the province should stay dry. Afternoon temperatures will range from 6 to 8 degrees above average.
Saskatchewan
It’ll be another dry, warm day in southern Saskatchewan, with temperatures rising to the high teens or low 20s. Widespread precipitation is not expected, though some heat-generated isolated showers or thundershowers cannot be ruled out in southwestern Saskatchewan. Perhaps even more important than the air temperature is the soil temperature. Wheat and barley can go in at 4-5°C, peas and lentils at 5°C, and canola at a minimum of 5°C, with 7°C or better preferred for consistent germination.
Manitoba
As it has been all week, Manitoba remains the coolest of the prairie provinces on Friday, but for the first time in a while, high temperatures will reach the low double digits. Even so, afternoon highs will be 3 to 5 degrees below average. Most of southern Manitoba will see sunshine, with clouds lingering over the Canadian Shield in eastern and northern parts of the province. Significant precipitation is not expected. Even the lingering snow in the north will finally begin to move out.
Saturday and Sunday
It’s too soon to be specific, but spotty showers are possible Saturday afternoon in southern Alberta, and Sunday afternoon in southern Saskatchewan. Otherwise, all three prairie provinces will stay dry under a mix of sun and cloud. It will be a very warm weekend with summer-like temperatures. In Alberta and Saskatchewan, Saturday’s highs will reach the low to mid 20s, and on Sunday, it will be a few degrees warmer with highs in the mid to high-20s. Southern Manitoba will be cool on Saturday, with highs near 10 or 11. Sunday is a whole lot warmer, as highs approach 20 degrees.
COMPARE: Prairie Weather This Week – Apr 27
