Soil Moisture Status

Snow over the past week or so has helped with soil moisture across the prairies.   The map below shows the soil moisture anomaly at 40 cm, with areas in blue indicating above average soil moisture, and areas in brown indicating where soil moisture is below average.   Southwestern Alberta remains particularly dry, as does southern Saskatchewan, and most of Manitoba’s agricultural territory.

The map above was generated Thursday, April 3.

Thursday

The map below shows afternoon temperatures across the prairies for Thursday.  All week, while the weather itself has been highly variable, temperatures have been remarkably consistent over both space and time.   And, that’s the situation Thursday, with temperatures peaking near zero all across the prairies.

Alberta

A large surface ridge of high pressure builds across Alberta Thursday,  the sky clears, and the snow on the ground either melts or evaporates.   Sunshine replaces the snow, as the sky clears from north to south.  The clearing should reach the US border by late afternoon.   Because the air is cold at higher elevations, look for convective cloud to build in the afternoon, leading to brief but intense flurries across central and southern Alberta.   The downbursts won’t last long, but may impair travel for a short period of time due to poor visibility in the snowfall.

Saskatchewan

The Low pressure system in the north, that has produced significant snowfalls for northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba for several days, is moving very slowly, so snow will continue for yet another day in the forests of northern Saskatchewan.  2-4 cm of snow can be expected.  A cold front will form, and may cause snow flurries for central and southern Saskatchewan.  Some of the flurries could be quite intense, causing short lived reductions in visibility.  Because the downbursts will be brief, there won’t be any serious accumulation.

Manitoba

Another day of snow is expected Thursday in northern Manitoba. adding to an already significant accumulation on the ground.   The snow will fall north of the Lakes, while in the south it will be mainly dry.   Though a few flurries can’t be ruled out in southwestern Manitoba, the sky will remain mainly sunny to partly cloudy through most of the southern part of the province.

Friday

Alberta

With a big surface high dominating the prairies, Alberta will have a sunny Friday.   However,  this is Arctic high pressure, and it will be a chilly day.   Early in the morning, low temperatures BELOW -10 can be expected across most of the province, though it may be slightly warmer along the Trans Canada highway corridor between Calgary and Medicine Hat.    From Edmonton east to Lloydminster, and southeast to Camrose, temperatures could drop as low as -20.  Despite bright sunshine, afternoon highs won’t get much higher than +5 in southern Alberta.  However, from Drayton Valley northwest to Peace River, highs will soar to the double digits.

Saskatchewan

It will be another cool day with highs across the province peaking near zero.   High pressure will provide sunshine to most of the province for all of Friday.  The snow in northern Saskatchewan will finally come to an end., and some of it will melt, thanks to a direct hit from the sun’s rays.

Manitoba

The Low pressure system responsible for a week’s worth of snow in northern Manitoba finally weakens and turns down the snow tap.   Snow will continue to fall, but much more lightly.   Scattered flurries can be expected in central Manitoba, while the south remains cloudy with light snow throughout the day.   Temperatures across the province will peak near zero yet again.

Saturday

Alberta

An upper ridge builds, west wind develops at the surface, and that’s a recipe for dry, mild weather.   Expect the entire province to be under a clear, blue, sunny sky Saturday,  with very warm weather.   Two areas could be particularly warm.   Computer models are suggesting highs near 20 in Edmonton and the Peace country.  However, in the few areas that still have snow on the ground, it’s more likely temperatures in those areas will reach the mid to high teens at best.   Nonetheless, it’s still warmer than average, and it will be sunny.   Most of the rest of Alberta can expect warmer than average weather, with double digit highs in most areas.   It will likely be a bit cooler in the Drumheller and Lloydminster areas.

Saskatchewan

Mild Pacific air floods into western Saskatchewan, where double digit highs are indicated by the computer models.   However,  snow on the ground may keep temperatures a bit cooler than indicated.    West of Regina, where there is snow on the ground, expect highs near 10.   In areas where there is no snow, it could be a couple of degrees warmer.   Cooler weather is expected on the eastern side of the province, with highs near 0, thanks to some cold air circulating into the area around a Low pressure system to the east.

Manitoba

Midday snow flurries over Lakes Manitoba and Winnipegosis will move southeast, and there will be snow in the Red River Valley and in southeastern Manitoba in the afternoon.  Amounts should be minimal.   Snow will also continue to fall around Churchill and along the Hudson Bay shore.   Otherwise Manitoba will be cloudy to partly cloudy on Saturday,  with highs across the province within a few degrees either side of zero.

Sunday

Here’s a chart from Environment Canada showing expected temperatures in the mid afternoon on Sunday.   Note the west-east contrast, with Alberta being extraordinarily warm, and Manitoba staying quite cool.

This chart, from the RDPS model, indicates 20 degree high temperatures are possible in many places throughout Alberta and Southwestern Saskatchewan.   As mentioned above,  snow on the ground will play a big role in determining whether these temperatures are actually reached.   Eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba remain in a circulation of cold air from the north, so temperatures will again be much lower than on the western prairies.   Highs below zero are likely in those regions.   Snow will continue in east central and northeastern Manitoba through the day, and in the midday, there is the possibility of some light snow between Lake Winnipeg and Ontario.

Event Forecast

Vegreville Ag Society Trail Obstacle Clinic –  April 3-6

Thursday, April 3 – Mainly sunny, wind NE 20,  high -2
Friday, April 4 – Sunny, light wind, low -17, high 3
Saturday, April 5 – Sunny, light wind, low -7, high 9

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