Thursday
Spring runoff has begun, with perfect timing, as farmers carry on with seeding operations across the prairies. To the west, the rivers and streams are starting to fill up, as some of the lower elevation snow in the Rockies begins to melt. This image of Spring Creek in Canmore was taken earlier this week. Not too long ago, water levels in this and other streams in the area were quite low. Now the levels are rising, as the water heads downstream toward prairie farms and pastures.
Alberta
North of Canmore, near Jasper, there was some fresh snow on the ground Thursday morning:
The image was captured the morning of May 8, by the 511alberta camera on Highway 16 just east of the Jasper Park gates. A shortwave trough is generating rain as it moves to the northeast through central Alberta, with snow in the higher elevations. The wind associated with this system is gusty. Otherwise, it will be another dry day in Alberta, with planting continuing unabated in the agricultural regions of central and southern Alberta. In central and northern Alberta, expect afternoon temperatures in the teens. In the south, expect high temperatures in the high teens or low twenties.
Saskatchewan
It will be a hot day in southern Saskatchewan, with temperatures in the 25 to 30 degree range. Central regions will be about five degrees cooler. Communities in far southeastern Saskatchewan, including Oxbow and Estevan, have a chance at reaching 30 degrees Thursday. A low pressure system travelling from east central Saskatchewan to northern Manitoba will bring some rain to the forests of central and northern Saskatchewan as it passes through during the day.
The low will drag a cold front through central Saskatchewan, accounting for the slight temperature difference between north and south. The front will also produce a strong wind through central Saskatchewan, and there will be brisk westerlies in the south. Agricultural regions will miss out on the moisture, ensuring yet another day of uninterrupted planting.
Manitoba
Thursday will be hot. A Low pressure system moving into northern Manitoba from central Saskatchewan will bring rain to the northern part of the province, far from the fields and pastures to the south. The south is expected to stay dry overall, however, the atmosphere in west central Manitoba will be unstable, and there is a possibility of scattered showers and thundershowers in the afternoon. If they develop, those showers and storms will track eastward, then fizzle in the evening, when heating from the sun dies down. Highs across central and southern Manitoba are easily expected to reach the mid to high 20s.
Friday
Alberta and Saskatchewan
As high pressure builds over Alberta and Saskatchewan, both provinces will experience another sunny, and warm day. No significant weather is expected in Alberta or Sasaktchewan Thursday, so there will be no interruptions to planting. High temperatures in southern regions should reach the low 20s, with the possibility of high 20s south of highway 3 between Lethbridge and Medicine Hat.
Manitoba
Rain will fall in northern Manitoba Friday, and the south will be fairly active as well, as the remnants of a cold front move across the region. Expect showers in the southern interlake before sunrise, then spreading across southern Manitoba. By breakfast time, the showers will be done, and the rest of the day will be dry. Rainfall amounts will be quite light, and there will be no interruption to seeding. In southern Manitoba, rain is not needed. While the topsoil may be dry, there is plenty of soil moisture just a few cm below the surface. Most of southern and western Manitoba will achieve highs from 15 to 20 degrees. It will be cooler to the north.
Saturday
Alberta
A low pressure system will form in southern Alberta Friday, and may generate enough instability for afternoon showers or thundershowers in the southeastern corner of the province. Southern and Central Alberta will see a mix of sun and cloud. The Low will push some hot air toward our neighbors in Saskatchewan, but Alberta will be on the cool side of the low. If you could call it cool. Temperatures are still expected to reach the high 20s south and east of Calgary, with highs in the teens north of Calgary to the NWT boundary.
Saskatchewan
Circulation in front of a southern Alberta low will push hot air into southern Saskatchewan Saturday. South of the Trans Canada Highway, high temperatures will reach the low 30s. North of the highway, expect temperatures in the high 20s. The very warm air extends as far north as Saskatoon. From there toward the NWT boundary, it will still be warmer than average, with highs int he mid teens. Humidity levels are low, and if the heat does generate afternoon thunderstorms, they would likely produce little rainfall. This, combined with a brisk westerly wind, will enhance the wildfire danger in southern Saskatchewan.
Manitoba
Like Saskatchewan, it will be a hot day in southern Manitoba, where temperatures will reach the high 20s and low 30s. The hot air is coming in a southerly push in front of a Low pressure system in southern Alberta. Instability due to the heat may kick off afternoon showers and storms in western Manitoba Saturday. Rainfall amounts will be light, but lightning will cause a pause in planting and seeding. There is a chance these showers and storms could continue through to early Sunday morning, when the Alberta low tracks across Saskatchewan
Sunday
Alberta
Warm, dry weather continues Sunday in Alberta, though it may cool down somewhat. The Low pressure system that developed over southern Alberta Saturday moves to Saskatchewan Sunday, and a cold front behind it drops Alberta’s high temperatures to the teens. There is a chance of late day instability over the foothills, and there is the possibility of afternoon showers or weak thunderstorms in the area. Those showers and storms are not expected to drift east, so the rest of the province stays dry.
Saskatchewan
As a low pressure system moves toward the Manitoba boundary during the day, the flow of hot air shifts eastward, and a weak cold front passes through the province. In this case, there isn’t much cold associated with the cold front. Temperatures will dip a bit across southern Saskatchewan. Areas that reached the 30s on Saturday will still get to the high 20s on Sunday. The best chance of precipitation happens in the early morning as the Low traverses southern Saskatchewan. By afternoon, there will no longer be a rain threat to agricultural regions of Saskatchewan, though showers are still likely over the northern forests.
Manitoba
It’s another hot day in southern Manitoba. South of the lakes, highs of 30 or warmer will be widespread. Don’t be too surprised if temperatures reach the mid 30s at the North Dakota border south of Altona. This extraordinary heat is likely to kick off some scattered thunderstorms across southern Manitoba Sunday afternoon. A cold front will then follow through the area Sunday night and Monday morning, kicking off a few more showers from the southern Interlake to the US border.
COMPARE: Prairie Weather This Week April 28
