Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Rain for Alberta, dry this week in Saskatchewan and Manitoba

Now that the crop is in the ground, rain is needed across the prairies.  Not only was the crop planted well ahead of the long term average, emergence numbers are high.   83 percent of crops in Alberta have emerged.   The latest Saskatchewan Crop Report indicates emergence has been good to excellent, and in Manitoba, the crop report is equally positive with widespread emergence reported for all major crops.

Those Manitoba crops have benefitted from a weekend of rain, as a Low pressure system meandered over the province, producing some rainfall over agricultural areas.   Saskatchewan and Alberta stayed dry.

This week, the pattern flips, and significant rainfall is on the way for Alberta, while Saskatchewan and Manitoba get nothing more than a few drops.    The maps below show expected rain accumulation up until the evening of Sunday, June 15.   Keep in mind, for Alberta the rain doesn’t start until Thursday.

 

Central Alberta will benefit from 30 to 60 mm of rain this week, with amounts in southern agricultural areas closer to 20 mm.

As mentioned, it will be much drier in Saskatchewan and Manitoba:

The rainfall estimates above were generated by Environment Canada’s GDPS model, and may vary due to forest fire smoke.   As we mentioned here last week, forest fire smoke can suppress convection, which minimizes thunderstorms.  It can also enhance precipitation by filling the air with smoke particles, to which water vapour attaches, creating raindrops.

The dry weather over the past few weeks has reduced soil moisture,  and that needs to be replenished for healthy germination to continue.

Monday

Alberta

While no organized storms are expected Monday in Alberta,  some afternoon thundershowers can’t be ruled out along the Alberta foothills.   The chance is very slight.  More than likely, the day will be sunny and hot across the area, with high temperatures reaching the low 30s south of Highway 3.   This will further dry out the soil, and where available, irrigation is advised.   To the north, in the Lakeland, expect some afternoon showers, with the possibility of a thunderstorm.

The computer models have, all spring, been suggesting rain that has failed to show up.    There is more confidence this time, that the rain expected later in the week for Alberta will be there,  helping to erase the issues generated by the lack of rainfall Monday, and early in the week.  North of Highway 3, it will be a bit cooler, with highs reaching the high 20s between Claresholm and Edmonton, and the low 20s north of Edmonton.

Saskatchewan

It will be a hot day in Saskatchewan, with highs reaching the 30s west of Regina, and the high 20s to the east.   The very warm weather will reach north to Prince Albert.   From there to the NWT boundary, highs will peak in the high teens.  In that same area, north of Prince Albert, expect afternoon showers, with a chance for a few isolated thunderstorms.   The wet weather is due to a weak Low that will end up over Saskatoon by the late afternoon.   Rainfall amounts will be minimal.

Manitoba

Remnant clouds and showers from the weekend rain will last through the day Monday in Manitoba.  Rainfall will be light and intermitted, with clearing in the afternoon.    Most areas will have a rather chilly day,  with highs in the mid teens.   Western Manitoba, where the rain is expected to taper off earlier in the day, may reach the low 20s.    Once the rain ends, the rest of the week in Manitoba will be dry.

 

Tuesday

Alberta

Dry and very warm weather continues Tuesday across southern and central Alberta.  Temperatures will reach the high 20s through the area, though the Medicine Hat region could bounce back up to the low 30s.   Because of the very warm weather, and the lift generated by topography, showers and thunderstorms may form over the foothills of southern Alberta in the late afternoon, then move eastward in the evening.  The main area affected by the evening rain, once it comes off the higher terrain, will be along the Trans Canada Highway east of Calgary.  Late day showers may also develop in central Alberta, but rainfall will be insignificant.

Saskatchewan

Northeastern Saskatchewan will get a bit more rain Tuesday,  and possibly some thunderstorms, but agricultural areas won’t be so fortunate.   There is a chance of a few pop-up showers in southern Saskatchewan Tuesday afternoon, possibly intensifying overnight into Wednesday morning.  Expect highs in the low 20s across southern Saskatchewan.   Warm, but not hot, so there may be less stress on soil moisture.

Manitoba

Cool conditions continue in Manitoba.  In the far north, many areas are unlikely to break out of single digits.    There is even a risk of snow near York Factory in the early morning.   Further south, in the agricultural regions,  highs will reach the high teens or low twenties.  A weak low pressure system will move across the south, and may generate a few light showers late in the day east of the Red River Valley.

Wednesday

Alberta

There is a chance of early morning rain showers in the Edmonton area, and  in the south from Lethbridge to Medicine Hat.   Rain accumulations, again, may be less than meaningful, as the showers will likely end by midmorning.  Expect the sky over Alberta to clear out.   Most of the day will be sunny, and the heat from the sun may destabilize the atmosphere, causing thunderstorms to develop over the foothills and central Alberta.  The area of rain will expand across the province south of Edmonton through the night and into Thursday morning.   Thus begins a long-awaited period of wet weather that will hopefully reverse the depletion of soil moisture.

Saskatchewan

Near average or slightly cooler weather is expected in Saskatchewan Wednesday, with temperatures reaching the high teens or low twenties. An area of rain will develop along, and south of, the Trans Canada highway, and move across Saskatchewan from west to east during the day.   This may be the best opportunity this week for meaningful rainfall, as the system will move slowly, allowing for measurable rain.   Unfortunately,  the rain will cover a very small area, and the vast majority of Saskatchewan’s agricultural areas will have yet another dry, rainless day.   By contrast, it will be another day of wet weather in northern Saskatchewan forests.

Manitoba

In Manitoba’s agricultural region, expect to see plenty of cloud cover, without any significant rainfall.   Because of the clouds, high temperatures will only reach the high teens, or 20 at best.   This is not necessarily a bad thing, as cloudy, cool weather means more moisture will stay in the ground.

 

Thursday

Rain is happening!  An expected change in the weather pattern brought rain to Alberta on Thursday, and there is more to come, not just for Alberta, but across the prairies.  The image below shows a radar estimate of the rain totals to 11:24 AM Alberta time June 12

 

The map above shows as of midday Thursday the heaviest rainfall has fallen over 24 hours is in the Brooks/Bassano region.    This map will be outdated by the time you read this, but it does give a good perspective on the moisture that has returned to southern Alberta.     And there is much more to come to all three prairie provinces in the week ahead.  Moisture feeding in from the Gulf of Mexico will interact with Pacific storm systems to generate Low pressure systems with showers and thunderstorms across the prairies.

This map shows rainfall expected until the early evening of June 25, according to the European model.   Central regions of all three provinces can expect the most (90 mm+), with over 30 mm for parts of southern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan.    Southern Manitoba will likely miss out on the heavier precipitation, but amounts will range from 10-30 mm over the next couple of weeks .   It looks like we’re in for a wet weather pattern for the last two weeks of June!

 

An upper level Low anchored off the coast of British Columbia will remain in place for several days.   It will force the jetstream into the northwestern US, and northern Montana.   This will cause lows to form on the prairies, which will generate showers and storms over Canadian agricultural land.     The map below shows the upper low (X), and the jetstream wrapping around the low, headed toward southern Alberta (oval).   It’s in the area of the oval where storms are likely to form, track east and spread rain across the prairies.

 

This isn’t just a one-off.   We expect to see this pattern repeating itself several times in the course of the next week or so,  meaning several days of wet weather.   This does not mean it will rain continuously.  It won’t.  And, the precipitation totals for the next several days will not come out exactly as depicted on the map above, due to uncertainty caused by thunderstorm clusters.   Some areas, hit by the storms, will have higher precipitation than others, which the storms will miss.

It is safe to say though, the next two weeks will be rainier, as the weather pattern becomes more active.

 

Alberta

A weak low pressure system forms in southeastern BC, spreading rain into southern and central Alberta, with a good chance of thunderstorms, even hail-producing thunderstorms.   Most of the wet weather will occur east of Highway 2, particularly in the Brooks and Bassano areas.  Lethbridge taps into this beneficial rainfall, but Medicine Hat misses out on most of it.   Because of the wet weather, highs will range from the low to high teens.  20 to 30 mm of rain could fall over central regions Thursday.

Saskatchewan

Highs will reach the high teens and low 20s, but unfortunately Alberta’s rain won’t make it as far east as Saskatchewan until late in the day.  Even then, it will stick around the Alberta boundary in the Lloydminster area, with amounts somewhere between 5 and 10 mm.   A second area of rain will develop in southwestern Saskatchewan,  south of the Trans Canada highway.  Elsewhere, Saskatchewan will experience a mix of sun and cloud.

Manitoba

Like Saskatchewan, Manitoba’s temperatures will be near or slightly below average, in the high teens and low 20s.   And like Saskatchewan, most of the province will be under a mix of sun and cloud.

 

Friday

Alberta

More rain is expected in Alberta Friday.   For central regions, it will be a day long event, with the heaviest rain, and some thunderstorms by midday northwest of Edmonton.   It will be dry in the south through the midday, with showers and possible thunderstorms developing in the afternoon, as a Low pressure system forms near Carseland.     There will be considerable surface heat in southeastern Alberta,  with temperatures in the high 20s,  which increases the probability of severe weather, including hail.

Saskatchewan

After morning showers, thunderstorms, and possibly severe thunderstorms are expected along the Alberta boundary Friday afternoon.  The area will experience highs in the high 20s,  and in the afternoon, when a Low forms southeast of Calgary, the atmosphere over western Saskatchewan will become unstable, allowing the storms to form.   Some of the storms may produce hail.   Pay close attention to weather warnings for southern Saskatchewan on Friday.

Manitoba

Manitoba will have a dry day,  with mainly sunny to partly cloudy conditions.   No significant weather is expected.   In southern Manitoba and the Interlake, highs will reach the low to mid 20s.  To the north, highs will reach the teens.

 

Saturday

While the upper air map above shows conditions for Friday afternoon, the map for Saturday is almost identical.   And so is the weather, with one key difference.    Rain across Alberta and Saskatchewan will push further north, and mainly affect areas north of the Yellowhead highway.   To the south in Alberta, it will be dry, with a westerly wind.   In Saskatchewan, a Low will form near Outlook, drawing some moisture as far south as Saskatoon by late afternoon.    Expect highs near or slightly above 25 in central and southern Saskatchewan.  It will be 5-10 degrees cooler to the north.   Dry conditions will continue in Manitoba, with highs in the high teens or low 20s.

 

Sunday

Hotter weather returns to the prairies Sunday, with highs between 25 and 30 across southern Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba.   Again, in the afternoon, the air will become unstable,  with isolated showers and storms popping up across all three provinces.    While it looks quite certain storms will develop,  due to their random nature, it’s all but impossible to predict exactly where they will happen  Weather Warnings should be monitored, with the possibility of severe storms, including hail.

 

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